{"id":2643,"date":"2025-09-05T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-05T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-september-5-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-09-06T11:07:16","modified_gmt":"2025-09-06T09:07:16","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-september-5-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-september-5-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update September 5, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>We are probably in the most dangerous phase of the war now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Europe is threatening to send troops into Ukraine and impose tough measures against Russia, but no one knows if it&#8217;s just empty threats or not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia knows that their window of opportunity to achieve a decisive outcome with Ukraine and the Baltics will close at some point, we estimate they have about a year. I base this on the fact that by then, the Balts will have re-mined their land border with Russia, and minefields have worked exceptionally well in this war when properly done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Balts and Ukraine will never be pro-Russian politically again, so Putin&#8217;s only chance is to snatch them away from us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When things calmed down in Sumy, we said that RU was moving forces away from there &#8211; my guess was that they brought in NK forces as border guards, not sure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have also said all along that RU has more gas &#8211; we understood this on January 20 when Putin did not want peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have also written that RU is holding back mechanized forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And that they intend to cross the Dnieper &#8211; for those of you who haven&#8217;t checked a map yet, it is currently dry north of Khakovka, they are almost crossing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine is also holding back forces in an offensive reserve, but they need to have free rein and full asymmetric warfare to have a chance of success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On top of everything, we have Zapad 25 around the corner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The forces moved into Donetsk are from other fronts, so RU is still holding onto its strategic offensive reserve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It could be the Baltics, it could be towards Lviv from Belarus, or it could be nothing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What will Europe do if Ukraine collapses?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think nothing, because both Germany and Poland have been very clear that they will not send troops to Ukraine, even though they didn&#8217;t need to be so explicit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What will Europe do if there is a small skirmish in the Baltics? Probably nothing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But in case of a full invasion, there should be a strong response, so if Putin intends to test the boundaries a little more, it will be below the level of full war, I guess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 70th MRD is being relocated to Pokrovsk &#8211; it is one of the more unified units on the Dnieper front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!ZEOy!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa55c30c4-6ad3-435d-bb93-c5055f7f1265_828x994.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!ZEOy!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa55c30c4-6ad3-435d-bb93-c5055f7f1265_828x994.jpeg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:333px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>We&#8217;ll see what happens with the 104th AAD if it is also relocated, that would signal lower ambition there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>France is rumored to be preparing for war, but I can&#8217;t vouch for the source at all, so it&#8217;s at best a rumor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!VG6f!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb282f05c-e715-49e9-b606-faac1700e6f7_828x1111.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!VG6f!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb282f05c-e715-49e9-b606-faac1700e6f7_828x1111.jpeg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:352px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Azerbaijan is mobilizing &#8211; also just a rumor \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!HajJ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc5787549-5f6e-4d6a-9cb2-1b8377a84eba_828x1110.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!HajJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc5787549-5f6e-4d6a-9cb2-1b8377a84eba_828x1110.jpeg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:362px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Our friend Carsten Bauer from Germany downplays Zapad 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/newsukraine.rbc.ua\/news\/russia-s-zapad-2025-drills-german-generals-1756733919.html\">https:\/\/newsukraine.rbc.ua\/news\/russia-s-zapad-2025-drills-german-generals-1756733919.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I interpret it as Trump\/USA trying to persuade Ukraine not to drone the refineries and all infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!XMsT!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd68d1179-e01d-4e18-a185-a4a45c60befb_828x1296.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!XMsT!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd68d1179-e01d-4e18-a185-a4a45c60befb_828x1296.jpeg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:415px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!5kUj!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F67caf87f-fe3d-4ac8-83a8-934832fbf956_828x1202.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!5kUj!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F67caf87f-fe3d-4ac8-83a8-934832fbf956_828x1202.jpeg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:430px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>My guess has been that the US has not given Ukraine free rein at all, but it is Europe that has changed its stance, and I think that analysis still holds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, the maiden voyage with the Flamingo &#8211; it works.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!DZud!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4149fec2-43a5-4ce6-a4e9-866e6c66453d_828x359.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!DZud!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4149fec2-43a5-4ce6-a4e9-866e6c66453d_828x359.jpeg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:404px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine&#8217;s fight for Crimea is more of a pre-emptive strike than a strategic drone war, and RU doesn&#8217;t seem to have much functioning AA left on the peninsula.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A death trap, plain and simple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Zelensky has also promised to follow my battle plan and intends to retake Crimea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As I said &#8211; the most dangerous months of the war, and if we in Europe let ourselves be talked down one last time, this could end in disaster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I am now completely sure that China and Russia have cooked up something dishonest, and if Europe doesn&#8217;t show its claws at all, we will escalate further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump pushing India against China was not very successful, but maybe it was Trump&#8217;s task to do so?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>India was our ally, and now they are best friends with Russia and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!CRAr!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92940134-a3b3-42e6-906b-c52d2dbc567f_828x995.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!CRAr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92940134-a3b3-42e6-906b-c52d2dbc567f_828x995.jpeg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:335px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>For me, it&#8217;s all connected &#8211; Ukraine needs to fall so that Putin can continue, and therefore all smoke screens are just that &#8211; Putin wants to conquer Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China must pass Taiwan to reach countries they are not allied with &#8211; like the Philippines and Japan, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The positive thing on the fronts is that RU is moving existing forces, but UA is also doing the same. Both seem to be holding onto a strategic offensive reserve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Azerbaijan becomes a big problem for RU, and if the entire area with Armenia and Georgia falls, it will be more than they can handle right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The big question is how Kazakhstan chooses to act here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Or if they will be squeezed between best friends Russia and China, and Europe chooses to remain silent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have a post in the works about China and Russia, but mainly China and a more global perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China is ready for war now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For a long time, they stood and hesitated, and if Russia had lost, they would have retreated back into the den, but now they took the full step, and it can never be undone &#8211; China is our enemy now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We are where we are today because Europe has never done anything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If we continue to do nothing, it will lead to a full global conflict, if we haven&#8217;t already passed that point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Continued appreciation for the site johanno1.se is always welcome, and there is a QR code for the purpose that you absolutely must not miss as we have costs and there is a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you liked the post &#8211; please share it in your channels, and most importantly, feel free to share the English version with people you think may appreciate posts and comments they have not been able to read before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\">https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"mailto:ohanno1.se\">johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"mailto:substack.com\/@johanno1\">substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\">https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We are probably in the most dangerous phase of the war now. Europe is threatening to send troops into Ukraine [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ukraine daily update September 5, 2025 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-september-5-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ukraine daily update September 5, 2025 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We are probably in the most dangerous phase of the war now. 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