Now I might give Trump a little more credit than he deserves, but I believe that the past six months were a serious attempt by the USA to economically crush China – so far, it has failed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If one is to be generous towards Trump, a possible explanation for his actions could be that he thought he could make money for his family, benefit Putin, and at the same time bring down China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This grand Erik journey would end with him becoming even richer, everyone hailing him as a peacemaker after receiving the Nobel Prize, Putin helping him weaken the opposition in the USA so that the GOP’s power would grow stronger, and finally, China would be plunged into a deep economic downturn and start talking about the great leap forward again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In simple terms, Trump probably grossly underestimated China and Putin while overestimating his own abilities, and above all, those of the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We are where we are, and among the least smart moves was probably pushing India over to China and Russia – yes, we think of curry, head wobbling, and lousy movies where there always has to be dancing, but India is a power player, and which side they choose matters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It has surely contributed to all competent individuals being fired in the new administration, but they didn’t perform well under Biden either, so the problem is the USA and not just Trump – we are where we are today because of Obama, Trump 1, and the Biden administrations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What are China and Russia’s plans for the coming years – the answer to that question will probably determine whether we enter a violent global conflict or not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia’s path into Europe should be closed within a year – then the Baltics will have re-mined their border in some kind of Maginot Line with multiple layers of field works and Surovikin-style mining. They seem to have finally settled their argument about the thickness of the bunker walls, which just took a little over three years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then there’s always the shift in technological advantage – Ukraine had it in the summer of 2024 and up until sometime last winter, now Russia has leveled the playing field and gained its own advantage after Trump effectively prevented Ukraine from utilizing its edge in 2024 and 2025. The USA did not like Kursk at all, and the refinery attacks ended on February 22, 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraine is, of course, working quietly to neutralize Russia’s technological advantage, and that’s how it goes on until one party in the conflict emerges victorious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I usually refer to it as a “whack-a-mole” game where you knock down the enemy’s stacks and try to raise your own – if you get a perfect combination, you win the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As soon as Ukraine has made progress, we have knocked down their stacks again, either by simply stopping them altogether or by denying them winning materials – or by revealing Ukraine’s plans to Putin so he would be prepared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Instead, we should have considered how to break the backs of Russia and China. Apparently, we could push Japan down in the 90s so they never recovered because they built good cars everyone wanted to buy, but Russia has some kind of “hundred chances” over them and they only have birds to sell – which Greenpeace marketed as “clean air gas” or whatever it’s called, but that doesn’t make it any less harmful to the newts in the pond in Bromma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Russian advantage is a mix of FAB, willingness to sacrifice infantry, some artillery, and a decent drone weapon – as well as large volumes of everything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraine has solved this by having very little infantry in the front line and a lot of drones. Then they have a rapid response force that can move around in case of a breakthrough – this probably saves many lives, and they have learned the hard way what FAB 1500 and thermobaric FAB can do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Both sides in the conflict are holding back mechanized units as an offensive reserve, even though there are rumors that Russia is running out of everything, which they are not at all, and they intend to continue their offensive. Ukraine also has an offensive reserve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The strategic drone warfare is quite evenly matched, but Russia is more vulnerable and suffers greater damage, so we still give the advantage to Ukraine, which has already adapted to the situation and is supported by Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
China has finally stepped out of the shadows – on May 9, 2025, they chose Russia in the conflict, and since then, we have learned that for perhaps two years, they have essentially built up Russian military production and provided what is needed, both drone weapons and all other equipment – tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, robots, and ammunition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I’m not sure if they have assisted with the air force, probably.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
China was cautious and hesitant for a long time, and if Russia had lost until the summer of 2024, they would likely have crawled back into their den, but now we are where we are, they took the step over to the dark side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In 2024, I wrote that “in the summer of 2025, we will see Chinese tanks in Ukraine” – now it became a fully built-up military equipment industry instead, but the point was that China would provide what was lacking for the Russians – which they have done. I am always right about everything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is now a window for Russia to escalate towards the Baltics or in Ukraine. The USA is out of the game, and Europe is still hesitating. The “coalition of the willing” is quite loose as country after country is now saying no to troops in Ukraine. The signaling policy is almost at the NATO meeting in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The risk Russia faces is that the longer this war goes on, the greater the chance that Europe will wholeheartedly join the war – Russia cannot handle that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Considering all factors, it will probably never be more favorable for Russia to escalate than it is now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A year from now, their drone advantage will be gone, and there will also be countermeasures against their strategic drone weapons, and Europe has its own equivalents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even Russia must expect that country after country will resolve their political deadlock and start taking the Russian subversive activities seriously.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Finland and the Baltics are now getting rid of everything Russian, have closed the border, and are not issuing visas – soon the EU will start doing the same. In 2024, we managed to issue half a million visas to Russians, it’s unbelievable…<\/p>\n\n\n\n
My conclusion is therefore that we are heading towards the most dangerous months in the whole war, and the “force posture” that Europe chooses can be crucial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Right now, country after country is confirming that they will not send troops to Ukraine, and none of our tripwires are in the Baltics even though part of the mission description is that they should be in place in case of an increased threat and Zapad 25 is around the corner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia could grossly misinterpret this as Europe not intending to honor our commitments?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
China is our fault – we gave them all production, and now they have built themselves stronger than us, with great patience and a very long-term approach. No four-year terms there, it’s a marathon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many warned – no one listened, short-term gains and bribes above all else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
China has done more than that – they have globally secured almost all natural resources and their processing, and together with Russia, ensured that we shut down absolutely everything, fossil fuels, mines, processing, and instead bought from them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In Africa, they are in almost all countries with important natural resources now either China or through Wagner (the Africa Corps).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
China has also made a big move in South America, and the presence of the US fleet off the coast of Venezuela is due to China breaking the oil embargo against them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For two years, I have tried to read up on how China has rearmed, but everyone says they are not doing it except for the navy – of course, they have shifted their focus to military production just as they have rebuilt Russian capabilities, and they intend to arm one country after another that are their strategic partners – there they get the cash they lose in trade with Europe and the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For example, South Africa should have been promised a military technology platform that makes them unbeatable if they just choose the right side, as having them on their side in southern Africa is strategically important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We know they have stolen our latest technology and that their R&D now has its own momentum, so if anything, they have improved on the latest we have, except for what we have been trying to build in the last two years perhaps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
All countries build what they believe in and try to figure out the quantity, quality, and competence of the opposing team before war breaks out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russian high technology was crap, we know that now, but the willingness to die has compensated, and Ukraine has never received what they needed to win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We still don’t know how China’s weapons compare to our vehicle fleet and technology platform, there is a whole range of drones and robots in all sizes and designs that we have not tested, and they have laser weapons too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They have fifth-generation fighter jets and claim to have radar that can detect B2 and F35.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They also claim to have unstoppable robots with very long range, A2A?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The US drone and robot programs are actually not going very well, and Ukraine announced that the drones sent to Ukraine from the West were not game-changers at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We are probably significantly behind China on the upward curve, and it may take a while before they no longer have the upper hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But China is landlocked and can really only wage war by sea against the enemies they perceive – that is the key to keeping China in check.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And then they are a colonial power with thousands of different languages – that is likely how they will be brought down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Considering how China, India, Russia, North Korea, and even Trump are treating Belarus like a rock star right now, Lukashenko has obviously promised something – and they are the country bordering Europe for the evil team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The meeting in Alaska was a broadly smiling Trump before a closed meeting with Putin, and a Trump with a gray face after the meeting with Putin – what did the real Putin say on the video link?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The meeting in China is interestingly timed just before Zapad 25 where Lukashenko was treated like a major player, and Putin – Xi had a chance to agree on – what – in person?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The risk is from now on and maybe a year ahead – time schedules are probably not Russia’s strong suit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Back to what we de facto know that Putin and Xi are planning –<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putin wants to bring down Ukraine and conquer the Baltics without war with Europe, after that he can start a stunning subversive operation against Poland, Germany, the Balkans, and slowly work his way forward with his pro-Russian governments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He won’t get the Baltics and Ukraine that way – they, like Finland, will never return to Russian dominance. They are also quite troublesome and quickly expose the Russian subversive activities faster than he can implement them right now, which the GRU constantly complains about in meetings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Xi needs to take over Taiwan because it acts as a huge aircraft carrier blocking Chinese expansion in Southeast Asia where their enemies are located.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yes, they could build up their capabilities in Vietnam, but they probably can’t because the Vietnamese government would see it as a covert invasion and it would take time – plus the US would be there immediately and disrupt them with various deals involving McDonald’s and locally produced Coca-Cola.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The easiest solution is for Europe to ensure that Ukraine and the Baltics never fall, and at most, straighten out our eastern border against Russia by Belarus gaining independence, Kaliningrad being demilitarized, and Ukraine regaining control of its entire territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then we in Europe have solved our urgent problem, which is also our problem and no one else’s, even though we constantly ask the US to solve it for us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The US needs to ensure that China can never take over Taiwan, and the best way to do that is with the American navy and air bases, but somewhat coincidentally, the Philippines and Japan have complained about the American bases, and sometimes they have been closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There have also been complaints about American robot batteries in that area, and some have been shut down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
CAGs are big targets for new types of anti-ship missiles that fly faster and are harder to shoot down than the US had anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now there are two sides to that coin, and perhaps air bases are safer on Diego Garcia and in the US than on bases closer to China where they could infiltrate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Although many four-man groups of Chinese have entered via Mexico before, China already has SOF in place to combat high-value targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
An aircraft is vulnerable during takeoff and landing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For China, the big risk is the B2, they know where the fleet is but maybe not the submarines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They also know where the robot batteries are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then there are China’s A2A missiles, which are said to be hard to shoot down and fast, along with a radar they claim can see everything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I have never understood why the US has not built large bases in Australia, but maybe it’s politics?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Air bases, robot bases, naval bases, army bases, and SIGINT, maybe they have that through Five Eyes?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Australia should gratefully accept such things now anyway, and then there is a reasonable distance to China and a country with good perimeter defense, making it difficult for China to infiltrate the country and the bases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Anyway – if there is a will, I think it is easier for Europe to solve the problem child Russia out of the two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Probably, under such high stress, Russia will collapse into internal power struggles, and then it will be like the Hunger Games in the country with a closed border against them – we throw biscuits over the minefields and teach courses in democracy and tolerance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
How do we bring down China, because it’s us or them now. If we solve Russia first, will we buy ourselves time?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Why is it us or them – is Johan No.1 exaggerating again for his likes on Twitter?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not everyone can be equally wealthy in a country and have the same amount – you have those who drive Rolls Royce and dine at the Grand Hotel, and those who cycle and save all week to afford pizza on Fridays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It works the same way in the world – if Europe wants to continue to have a high\/highest standard of living, we will not be able to afford to give it away to China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Just looking at the UK and their Brexit is almost enough to understand that as soon as you crack the door open, someone else will kick it wide open and run in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
China already has us in a stranglehold – all production in China, same quality cheaper than what we can sell for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They have the raw materials and they can deny us things that would completely halt our production, right now they are stopping what we need for our defense production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
China wants Russia and Belarus to be at least an open wound in Europe so we are fully occupied with that, I guess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now that China has stepped into the spotlight, it’s because they considered themselves strong enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They have their 30 countries standing on their side of the fence and they are now selling obscene amounts of high-tech weapons to these countries – an arms race is already underway where different countries will become dominant in their regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Thailand might not be very happy now, and the friends of the West are becoming fewer – unless an alternative is offered, it was bound to end up here sooner or later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Europe should completely let go of the world and just focus on Africa once our eastern border is sorted out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Africa is not only a treasure trove of the natural resources we need but also a huge market – if we offer fair trade agreements to country after country (for real) and access to our (internal) market, many countries will choose us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As long as we don’t come running with demands for democracy and other certifications that scare them off, not all of these countries are ready for a transition to the opposite gender of our youth, which we have now accepted as part of upbringing and something we fully encourage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That would be a win-win if done correctly this time – Europe becomes the mother of all markets so we don’t have to worry about selling our products for the next 100 years, and we have all the natural resources we need.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Africa will become the continent of the future where they come closer to us, and many of the problems they have today will simply be built away with a higher standard of living.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Over time, they will start their own production, processing, and higher education – Africa has a very bright future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A win-win if I ever saw one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
How do we take down China, or how does the US take down China?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let’s not forget that China has been preparing for war for a long time and using all the dirty tricks in the toolbox, so a tit-for-tat is only fair.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I imagine this after a Russian defeat in Ukraine when the whole show collapses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-We buy and China produces, and their group of friends are not great consumers – Europe and the USA stop buying Chinese to begin with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-We clear out China and Russia from Africa in the best possible way, approaching countries where they support the rebels first if the government is not a bloodthirsty dictator and offering relocation assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-We know that China will choke off everything they can to us, so we find new ways, it will take a few years. English Pensana in Angola now has agreements with the USA and Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-economic warfare, China has always played dirty with us, so why can’t we do the same with them, yes, they will use their national debt weapon against the USA so the EU might have to overbuy for a while?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Europe’s fleets are moved to Australia and new naval bases there, and are part of the protection of our pals in Asia – Australia, NZ, South Korea, the Philippines, and Japan. This is post-Russian crash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-we bring back manufacturing to Europe and automation gets a boost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-we start sensible electricity production again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-we also gear up against China so they have to gear up too, then we start hinting at “star wars” and space lasers and lean back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Taiwan is defended.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Our friends in Asia have our full support, they should know that Europe stands behind them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
All of this is below the level of war, and we are only doing to China what they do to others, including us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I believe that country will explode into a civil war in a thousand ways if you push the right buttons – just like with Russia, the Han Chinese are not popular where Han Chinese are not the majority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yes, you also understand that we have to cooperate with the USA despite all the mistakes they have made.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China have already isolated themselves – they are only getting what they deserve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It could also turn into open war, and then China and the USA will pound on each other until they get tired, the USA will never invade China and vice versa. It might take 3-5 years before they run out of steam maybe?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is nothing positive about that, but the upside for us is that we will be left alone and can send what we can spare to help the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Continued appreciation for the website johanno1.se is always gratefully received, and there is a QR code for this purpose that you absolutely must not miss as we have costs, and there is a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations that we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you liked the post – please share it in your channels, and most importantly, feel free to share the English version with people you think may appreciate posts and comments they have not been able to read before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n