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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nHouti did not decide on their own to cut the submarine cables, probably it was not them even though they claimed responsibility for the sabotage. This is a major underwater operation unless it was the shadow fleet dragging a lot of anchors again – and then it definitely wasn’t the Houti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the Baltic Sea, Russia damaged 11 cables over a year and now they have had their heavy tugboats or vessels suitable for underwater work over a lot of cables in recent months. Why, no one needs to ask anymore and it includes the power transmission cable to the UK and from us down to the continent among other things.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In Sweden, we recently had our VMA cut off and a message about war was probably sent out, or something like that?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Two power outages on Gotland and around thirty mobile towers along our east coast were damaged earlier this year. Even if the power outages on Gotland were just lightning strikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Quite interesting that lightning strikes that blackout Gotland twice in a short time chose to come this year – it is probably not very common with double lightning strikes that darken the island with a few weeks apart, what do you think the probability of that is?<\/p>\n\n\n\n When all of Europe’s leaders went to the USA and confronted Trump, we in Europe stood up and I was greatly pleased – the hope was of course that Russia and China received the message “Stop – here but no further you earth’s last colonial powers and detestable environmental destroyers”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n When Ukraine immediately started targeting goals that had been completely prohibited in an entire war, it turned into a positive loop and we began to hope that Europe was ready when Druzba had its third flyover.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then Germany and Poland withdrew troops in Ukraine quite promptly for example even though the rhetoric otherwise is tough. Now about ten countries have clarified that they will not send troops to Ukraine I think, but the UK and France are still there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n France’s government recently fell so maybe only the UK is left if Kier Starmer is not also brought down by the Russian subversive activities which is the price for standing up against Russia. The dark secret we have described for several years that makes everyone hesitate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The power transmission cable from Norway might be a suitable punishment for Starmer’s audacity?<\/p>\n\n\n\n And no one is going to show a threshold effect in the Baltics, it is quite clear now that nothing will arrive by Friday. This goes against the mission description that they should arrive in the Baltics with an increased threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The recent communication from China and Russia suggests that they are not backing down now that Europe has found its inner Viking. On the contrary, it’s time to put on the big-boy-pants and use harsh words about it being a new era and that Europe and the USA are being left behind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is apparently how they see us after everything we did for Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union \ud83d\ude36<\/p>\n\n\n\n China also dropped the bomb that the BRIICS sphere of +30 countries will all be able to bypass SWIFT and conversion via USD when China launches its new system. The USA has gone to war for less than that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We have already discussed the military parade and it is crystal clear that China is far ahead of the USA and Europe on the curve for the latest technology. The USA has also shown in action that they are lagging behind, drone and robot programs that have delays, problems, or have been discontinued have been described in the posts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The USA is also trying to gain access to Ukraine’s drone technology and “know-how” now which also suggests that they are behind on the curve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In Europe, we lean towards the USA, this feels reassuring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As mentioned, if one wants to be generous, one can guess that the USA tried to bring down China with the trade war, taking a hit oneself to get everything in motion and then someone else falls harder than oneself – but the USA has failed completely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I also suspect that Trump had an overconfidence in himself and the USA – he would bring in trillions, he would negotiate peace, he would get a Nobel Prize AND he would be able to please Putin and enrich himself (which he did to an incredible extent…).<\/p>\n\n\n\n The USA would be satisfied, Europe would be pushed back, China would fall, and Russia would join the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It didn’t turn out that way at all and \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n China has been preparing for this for decades – they got all the production and together with Russia they have managed to take over energy production in Europe, shut down our own, and prevented us from upgrading sufficiently for a long time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Already in 2007, the whole world knew what Russia was planning after Putin’s speech in Munich but we have shut down everything and made ourselves dependent on Russia and China – we are consumers now in Europe. A bit like Spain’s gold thefts in South America in the past which eventually led to their complete downfall because they stopped producing within the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Zapad 25 “hot phase” will probably start this weekend and already Belarus has announced that the exercise is underway and that they are also practicing military medicine and mobilization of reservists. It has not escaped anyone that Lukashenko was treated like a rock star at the meeting in China. A small insignificant country with 10 million inhabitants whose only advantage is the proximity to Europe and Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Poland is closing its border with Belarus and urging Polish citizens to leave the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/united24media.com\/latest-news\/poland-to-shut-border-with-belarus-amid-russia-belarus-zapad-exercises-citing-security-risks-11501<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/newsukraine.rbc.ua\/news\/poland-warns-citizens-to-leave-belarus-now-1757114607.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n One can extrapolate endlessly on this, but too much is guesswork for it to be credible so I won’t draw any conclusions below –<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Trump’s smile at the Alaska meeting and his long face after the private meeting with Putin, what did he find out?<\/p>\n\n\n\n – The USA’s lame attempt to mock the Chinese summit and Trump’s obvious disappointment that everyone went to China instead of making trade deals with him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – That the USA is going to reduce its presence in the Baltics and many other things, that they will focus on national defense and no longer be the world’s police.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Egypt has also brought in large forces to Sinai now and Iran is threatening with everything again – apparently they never learn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So what are the immediate threats?<\/p>\n\n\n\n – that Ukraine is attacked from Belarus and Transnistria in addition to the fronts and collapses. Europe will not actively prevent it, I think we know enough about Europe now to be able to write this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – that Israel collapses, a little less likely but Russia and China are trying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – that China tries to take over Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n “Then we all chant ‘peace in our time’.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n No, this is just the beginning of our time’s global conflict unfortunately – a so-called starting shot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n “but Transnistria has two Russian battalions and 5000 in the militia”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Does anyone still believe that?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia trained militias to destabilize the elections in Romania and Moldova this year, they were trained in Slovenia or Macedonia, I don’t remember where.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hungary dismissed 100 high-ranking officers earlier and has already mobilized to enter their historical areas in Ukraine once in this war.<\/p>\n\n\n And above all – in Transnistria there is a large arsenal for an army corps or whatever size it may be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If Russia wants to, they could bring in civilian-clad and unarmed soldiers into Transnistria hidden over time and also increase the training of Transnistria’s militia, as well as some Special Operations Forces and Spetsnaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A possible attack vector could very well come from that direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Belarus has already started training military medical services and “large-scale testing of mobilization of reserves” ahead of Zapad 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Everything points towards further escalation, but when, where, and what are the big questions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sweden NEVER took a chance with Gotland, but right now Europe is trying to downplay Zapad 25 as much as possible, even though it seems we have given Ukraine free rein now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I’m wondering if the strategic Ukrainian reserve might also be tasked with keeping an eye on Transnistria and Belarus now so that Ukraine doesn’t get completely caught off guard?<\/p>\n\n\n\n There are lots of rumors that Europe is preparing for war, but it all comes from Russian sources. I think it would be a dereliction of duty if Europe were not preparing for war at this time, and our governments may be trying to keep a low profile for now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The positive thing is Ukraine and that they have implemented full asymmetric warfare – they should have been allowed to do that already in 2022, but we sit on our morally higher ground and decide over human lives, what are a few hundred thousand desecrated and tortured child corpses in the larger context if we achieve eternal peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We have come a long way now from being upset about Bucha and Germany not even wanting to send helmets to Ukraine in 2022, to now discussing how to contain China in 2025 \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n For my part, I understand much more about how the world works and how a rising Hitler-star is born and grows to its full glory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A fantastic knowledge to have acquired, and above all, we have in a whole war made our own analyses and not bought ready-made packages from experts who have been wildly wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We have much more to learn, and above all, what makes great leaders into great leaders – timing is everything, patience, and being made of Teflon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now I may have learned the hard way that timing is more important than being right and knowing it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And to stick to your line even when everyone is against you is something few can manage over time. I have gained a lot of respect for Agnes Wold as she seems completely unaffected by all the hate she receives for calling a biological man a biological man.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Ukraine war has escalated into a global conflict that may still end in a recession and bruised pride – or perhaps the journey has already begun towards the great power struggle of our time, I am oscillating a bit on this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n When countries arm themselves in the way we are now seeing, it eventually becomes a power struggle and a showdown until the parties get tired, and it is China and the USA that must get tired for there to be peace in our time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Johan No.1 will continue his reporting and expand it to the global conflict, but will focus on Ukraine until they reach their goal there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you remember, at the end of the month we ran a donation drive for johanno1.se via the QR code – we will do this every month-end going forward, so be prepared the last week so you don’t miss this opportunity to cover the site’s costs and to honor MXT for his work on the site and all the posting. The site is alive with a couple of loyal ones like 205 who contribute a lot and is well worth a daily visit to read the comments section.<\/p>\n\n\n\n By mid-month (a sneak peek), it’s time to remind about a paid subscription on Substack, which is valuable to me – if you read posts and appreciate them, consider if it’s worth the price of half a McDonald’s meal per month, and you will also become healthier and able to read more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It’s important to be able to handle the lunchroom Jesus when his dominance behavior kicks in every coffee break, and I will try to continue providing the information you need to take him down \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Above all, thanks to the loyal ones who have had a subscription since I started on Substack and are holding on despite all the digressions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine has been difficult as I have felt for the country, and the suffering has been completely incomprehensible, but in the broader reporting, I try to omit the frustration and pounding fists on the table – everything also takes too much time, but this is extremely interesting and I will try to delve a little deeper in between.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Great that you are reading, and overall, there is a lot of feedback on johanno1.se, bluesky, and Substack, which is incredibly rewarding – please comment more in the channel that suits you, I read everything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n