{"id":2726,"date":"2025-09-11T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-11T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-september-11-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-09-12T06:46:06","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T04:46:06","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-september-11-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-september-11-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update September 11, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

We wrote yesterday that 17 cut submarine cables was a significant escalation and that we will now see more – and indeed we did, Russia tested NATO through a massive drone attack on Poland intentionally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The other day, Russia also placed a robot in Kiev’s government building and droned the English consulate in Kiev – a very significant escalation overall from Russia, and then they cautiously observe the reaction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have previously described how governments would be locked, governments fall, how demonstrations take over, personal attacks on prominent politicians, murders, gangs, right, left, Islamists, and sabotage – we are RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF IT NOW in Europe. Hundreds of arsonists who set fire to Europe’s forests have been arrested, and the worst sinners had started 60 fires each – do you need more than that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kier Starmer is the next man up for shaving I guess after Macron’s government fell – big demonstrations in the country to be expected maybe?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only thing missing is all the power outages and direct sabotage in a twilight setting, and when they come then we are at war even if there may be a lot of creative explanations to try to avoid it for a while longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the choice between war or shame, we have so far chosen shame – Churchill is spinning in his grave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When (yes – when!) Russia in one way or another enters the Baltics, we are also at war and then we can no longer turn a blind eye – Omfall A maybe you remember as I was laughed at because Carsten Bauer and all other experts, military personnel, and specialists say that Russia is not ready before 2028 even though they know that I have written that Russia has a year before the door to the Baltics is closed – the level of arrogance is suffocating almost \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I didn’t have time to include the drone attack in yesterday’s post but wrote some on Bluesky, johanno1.se, and Substack when it happened if you want to check out early analyses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have a lot to say about this –<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. this is not at all the first day of a full drone war against Poland or an invasion – it’s a test and Poland will not be invaded. However, Russia has the readiness to start running drone swarms westward if they think it benefits them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. The NATO shootdown rate was poor and Poland is lying, they claim they shot down the drones that posed a threat but the drones that made it furthest in from the Belarusian border were found crashed 370km or 500km in depending on who you believe. A drone with a presumed large warhead that travels 500km into Poland IS a threat wherever it is, it has then passed through settlements several times and also near airports and military installations as well as other high-value targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poland reported 4 to 9 drones shot down and the total number was between 19 and 23. At most, a 20% to 47% shootdown rate which is far below what Ukraine is capable of, and then half of Europe’s top fighters were up and circling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Consider here that Russia can launch 500 guided drones in one night if they want and that they manufactured 2700 last month, and intend to produce +70,000 per year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then they have +1000 robots in storage and a high pace of new production – are they even harder to shoot down?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. I have come to believe that the drones did not have warheads and that they were programmed to fly until the fuel ran out. Highly significant because then Russia has tested Europe’s readiness against drone attacks and 370km-500km inside our border is quite an achievement by Russia, many pats on the back there after the mission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have not had 10 explosions of high-value targets – that’s what I base my assumption on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. The drone attack was planned and deliberate even though Russia will now deny it, Poland found Lithuanian and Polish SIM cards in the drones, and it is reported that the attack has been planned since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

5. Europe’s reaction was Article 4 which is considered a low-effective response and buying pizza for the gangs. We should have – given Ukraine all frozen funds today, stopped the shadow fleet, established a no-fly zone over Ukraine, taken over the border with Belarus in Ukraine, sent brigades to the Baltics AND been clear that Ukraine can target any objectives they want in Russia with all Western weapons they have.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One at least, preferably all at once.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now there is also the group “it’s best to lay low Europe is doing right” – no, the signal to Putin is to continue escalating and the above are all soft measures that are not an escalation unless you are a coward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6. B52 is flying to Europe now – Europe is preparing for war in the near future even if our governments are trying to downplay it. All the DAMN analysts talking about 3-4 years can go fly a kite. Carsten Bauer for example and all other experts who have talked about 2028 when the only window for Russia to escalate is within a year from now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The world should have listened to me and not Carsten Bauer who got to control the narrative, yes I have wondered if he is paid by the Russians \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

7. The US likely knew something would happen, Trump may have known since the Alaska meeting. Have we had any statement from him by the way other than “here we go” which is pretty easy to interpret really if you don’t have blinders on?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Pizza night at the Pentagon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

8. Ukraine avoided touching these drones, for them this is good – I support Ukraine and they did the right thing. They are also right to wait for Russian tourists to enter the Baltics in green in the forests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine is holding back its offensive reserve and waiting for the Russian escalation towards Europe first, foolish to burn the powder before the fireworks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So why did Russia carry out this massive drone attack on a NATO country (which they did not dare and could not, and which we would shoot down to 100% according to all experts).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. they think they will get away with it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. they establish a new normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. they test Europe’s LV capability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. they test if we will help the Baltics in case of a Russian invasion there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. they want to pressure Europe to get Ukraine to stop bombing their oil industry and fuel infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6. Black swan for Europe’s financial markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

7. to give NATO a wedgie for the whole world to see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do we feel formidable and strong over the embarrassing list above?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only thing we can be completely sure of is that there will be more – I have actually warned about this for a while and mocked Carsten Bauer’s idiotic predictions about which year in the future Russia is a threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have also warned that we cannot have the war of 2025 in Europe, and Poland could not shoot down 19 damn drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have also described the chaos we are heading towards due to Russia’s subversive activities and now France’s government just fell, Palestinian demonstrators are becoming more aggressive, gangs are in full war, and sabotage is at a critical level all over Europe now. The Baltic Sea is boiling right now, Aunson has something every day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

You can then be sure that the power outages will come in autumn and winter as well as direct sabotage against our defense capabilities – violent fires and explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Baltic states will in one way or another be attempted to be entered by Russia, either through a full invasion or as a test of NATO. The exact timing is the big question, but to me, it is incomprehensible that Europe is taking a chance, I cannot understand it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China will also begin its operations now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There will be more wars in the world – Nepal was a bit surprising, they have disgruntled youth there who enjoy their screen time, one must admit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have previously launched two wild theories – one that the USA would be happy to see a recession in Europe so that capital returns to the USA, and that Russia will provide a black swan for Europe’s financial markets. The USA is a guess, the black swan is so likely that I consider it probable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That we are returning to the Cold War and a Europe under the Russian boot that the USA can sell security to at double the market price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, Russia will not try to overrun the whole of Europe, just open a large wound and then engage in a numbingly subversive activity. Russia thrives in such an environment, China wants it, and probably the USA too, which would benefit greatly from it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stock market is overripe, so there will be something between today and the summer of 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2008, it was said that the PIIGS died a soot death because China had learned to copy their level of industry and could produce the same quality cheaper. The prediction was that high technology was next, and I happened to know that Sweden was far ahead in that area and thought that we were next in line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Northvolt was Chinese sabotage, but the management were idiots who did not understand China, they should have hired me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chinese solar panels and electric cars are where we are now, and advanced weapon platforms, evidently. China is likely far ahead in AI as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Swedish high-tech industry is thus in jeopardy this time around – Atlas Copco and ABB, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don’t know much about economics, but to me it looks like funds in the USA are buying government debt now, and the FED probably owned 30% themselves – the debt in the USA may not be a big deal even if China has a weapon to fire?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The USA will also get Europe to start buying if needed, it’s not very difficult to see that the UK has been forced to do so to get a trade deal, and the more scared we become of Russia, the more we will buy \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, long-term interest rates in the USA are on the rise, and many other indicators are pointing downwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But that goes for us in Europe too, pointing downwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Warren Buffet is maximally liquid, which usually is an indication, and insider selling of stocks and shorting of stock exchanges are at their highest levels in a long time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But then the big players are also selling off in Bitcoin – why, I would like to understand because I thought Bitcoin was a refuge when everything else got turbulent?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where will the money seek refuge in times of increased unrest this time – it usually goes to USD, secure government bonds, gold, and anything money can be parked in as long as it doesn’t drop less than a crashed stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I guess the UK is no longer a safe haven?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The EU area will soon have a couple of insolvent countries, so EUR neither?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That leaves USD and their government bonds – this is the sequence of events I have imagined, and it would be fun if those of you who understand economics comment in the channel where you are reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you have read my previous posts, my thought has been that the USA will take a hit to get the ball rolling and then others will be hit harder and “end up with the short end of the stick.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe is far from doing well right now, high unemployment, inflation, political turmoil, high crime rates, and a great need for welfare after previous high migration where Sandviken apparently didn’t match?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Sweden, for example, the Social Democrats have announced that they will raise taxes if they win the election, which will certainly not benefit our export market as companies will have to try to sell their products even more expensively in a razor-sharp competitive market. That’s where we’ll be next fall, and financial markets tend to be quick to mete out their punishments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Populist parties are on the rise in half of Europe, and they rarely prioritize budget balance as their first election promise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, China is putting pressure on Europe’s high-tech industry – the German automotive industry is under a lot of strain, and it has been a flagship of high technology in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I guess our industrial robots are older and more expensive than Chinese ones now, so ABB and Atlas Copco might start to fall behind?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have barely begun with AI, and it seems that the EU is mostly good at overregulating and prohibiting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Russia wants, they can launch their “lights out operation” this winter – we issued 400,000 visas in 2024 to Russians, and they have already been busy buying services from gangs all over Europe, and others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Without declaring full-scale war, they can darken Europe and get away with it, I personally believe that we are prepared in time now, but we will see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“the gangs and criminal clans are threats to the system” I have written a few times, and soon you will understand why.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, a provocation just during full-scale war from Russia in the Baltic Sea or the Baltic states would function as a black swan for Europe, I guess?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The southeast corner in Estonia, for example \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then China can increase the pressure further by cutting off more of the raw materials we need for our manufacturing, Houthis can disrupt shipping in the Red Sea, more underwater cables can be cut, and then more wars in all possible places in the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One part of the global escalation that is now underway is definitely to try to economically bring down Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In our family, we have too many children to be able to invest in something like all the rest of you do, but a good indicator that things are about to collapse is when Johan No.1 starts talking about stocks and considers opening an account on Avanza – then it’s close \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I am pondering if it could happen as early as this fall because historically autumns have been significant crashes?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anyway – Europe already has sky-high electricity prices, which are hitting manufacturing and making us unattractive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only way forward as I see it is to start stopping Chinese products, restart electricity production, team up with Africa, and slowly work our way back, but it seems crystal clear that we will have some bad years no matter what we do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So – maybe it’s time to prepare for power outages, crisis interest rates (up or down?), higher unemployment, and doomsday prophets on TV again?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, this will affect our willingness to support Ukraine and also make us more compliant with the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Green Party has stated that they will oppose all new nuclear power, which includes the genius move with SMR, which is not only worrying but dangerous since more and more wind power companies are starting to go bankrupt, and wind turbines have a lifespan of 15-20 years. We should have started to address this with SMR several years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n

Unfortunately, all new electricity production in the next 10 years is essentially renewable solar and wind \u2013 nuclear power has a long lead time. I’m reading about renewable hydrogen but don’t know if it can bridge the gap?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here, there is a looming risk that we will end up like Germany \u2013 the electricity price caused their heavy industry to collapse within a couple of years, with the exception of the arms industry, which can cost whatever it wants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For our part in Sweden, the economic outlook doesn’t look bright is my interpretation of the overall situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Substack \u2013 there is still a chance to become subscribers and for me it is valuable if you want to become paying ones. All content is posted freely to everyone but it still takes a lot of time to put together, costs 80 SEK per month, and then you skip a meal at McDonald’s so it’s also healthy \u2013 Johan No.1 will make you healthier too \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Continued appreciation for the page johanno1.se is always gratefully received, and there is a QR code for this purpose that you absolutely must not miss as we have costs and there is a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 ukraine, and other organizations that we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you liked the post \u2013 please share it in your channels and most importantly, please share the English version with people you think might appreciate posts and comments they haven’t been able to read before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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