{"id":2732,"date":"2025-09-12T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-12T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-september-12-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-09-13T00:25:39","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T22:25:39","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-september-12-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-september-12-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update September 12, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

We are in a phase of global escalation that I think everyone has now understood, even though some still find it difficult to accept?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I’m pretty sure Europe is preparing for war even if our governments are downplaying it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since you all know that Russia is constantly escalating the level of violence, the question you need to ask yourselves is – what is the next level after drone swarms into Poland?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If nothing happens by the summer of 2026, I will admit that I am wrong, close all my accounts, and start growing tomatoes instead \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because then the door to the Baltics is closed, and the danger is over if Ukraine has held out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The overall escalation includes destabilizing our countries through various influence operations, and then it is blown up to the maximum on social media to have the greatest possible impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You remember my discussions about spectacular acts of violence that provoke, such as the Russian Quran burnings in Sweden, Russia is good at finding topics that touch people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We don’t know who shot Charlie Kirk and who was behind it, but we know he was shot in front of rolling cameras – almost hard to get more impact than that?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A shooter was on a roof 180m away, it would have been much safer for the shooter to shoot him when he went out with the dog in the evening or a car bomb – an easier escape route.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201dA robbery gone wrong\u201d is otherwise a good way to get rid of your enemies, or if you don’t want any discussion at all about the murder – heart attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whoever was behind it wanted that person\/group to evoke maximum emotions, bloody, horrible, outcry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then there are hundreds of “left-wing accounts” laughing, mocking, toasting, praising, and in other ways twisting the knife in the wound of MAGA – and many are anonymous \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Never miss a good crisis, they say, whoever was behind it we don’t know, but we know that Russian influence is simmering on social media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For MAGA in the USA, it’s probably hard to have a redder flag in front of them than this – the detestable “lib and woke” in their neatly cut colorful hairstyles laughing so hard they cry when MAGA’s prophet bleeds out in a heap on the ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A neatly cut and colorful Pearl Harbor for MAGA?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How do you best lock down the USA, maybe through large-scale protests but not as advanced as in Nepal?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USA has recently announced that they will focus on internal security instead of being the world police, and Trump has just surrounded himself with the entire National Guard in Washington as a preventive measure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are quite a few layers to this onion, and one of them is definitely that Trump was already supposed to restore security before and loudly believed that the entire opposition was actually just one big security risk that should be locked up for life \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I actually discussed this in a post early winter if you remember – the big post about Trump that you all read, right, part of his job was to turn the USA inward \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In France, the gangs have also jumped on the bandwagon now. It is important not to forget that Macron is the one who has taken the lead against Putin since early 2024, and now it is his second government crisis and large-scale protests in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

France is also one of the few countries still willing to send troops to Ukraine along with the UK, which is probably the very last thing Putin wants to see, of all the things he would prefer not to see – he is willing to go far to avoid it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In the UK, there are also major demonstrations on the way because after Macron, Putin is most upset with the not-so-subtle Starmer – the UK has been at the forefront of taking a tough stance against Russia after France. But Starmer has also been a weak leader in bad times, and the country has polarizing problems. It is volatile and requires no galactic influence operation from Russia’s side to bring down Starmer, probably.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Germany, Putin still believes he can control things, even though Merz as a person is the political leader in Europe most exposed to Russian subversive activities now. The funny thing is that Russia doesn’t give a damn about Merz, but that doesn’t stop them from inventing various dramas that they repeat on social media. A bone-dry German bureaucrat who is so boring that the clocks stop, he solves crossword puzzles with his wife on Saturday evenings in front of the news and with a cup of tea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One thing politicians always do is strongly condemn crimes against their own, regardless of party affiliation. Some may argue that they take their own security more seriously than that of the citizens since we have +60 no-go zones where they have surrendered control to the gangs to rule over those who live there, but that’s another discussion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is another aspect as well – no politician is eager to end up like in Nepal, being dragged through the streets by angry students whose TikTok got blocked. Our leaders are starting to fear large protests that escalate completely, and the groundwork is there throughout Europe now – the latest seeds were planted in 2015 and they have started to grow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That’s why they come out and strongly condemn anything that looks like attacks on politicians, in the UK they are introducing opinion laws with harsh penalties, and soon we will roll out Chat Control 2.0 if it passes in the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By the way, do you read anything about Chat Control 2.0 other than Emmanuel Karlsten’s writings?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don’t, and it is the most repressive measure against EU citizens in many years, in addition to our government now being able to take your house for certain types of criminal activity if you cannot immediately prove that you bought it with legal income. A bit unclear how my +80-year-old mother could prove that with a house bought in 1976, but let’s not get bogged down in the details. But then again, she won’t commit the crime that triggers the forfeiture law \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every leader in Europe knows that it is Putin who can spark these demonstrations if he wants, if you are too prominent in condemning Russia, the risk is high that right-wing, left-wing, and Islamists will take to the streets in your country. It is no secret that Russia has tentacles in all three groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They also control parties on the left and right fringes, so your opposition is troublesome and breathing down your neck, and on top of that, they have bought a couple of parliamentarians in your party who constantly scream for votes of no confidence at the slightest provocation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They also own influencers and prominent debaters who will all push out the information they receive from the GRU about you, sometimes it’s true, sometimes it’s fabricated, but it’s not about what’s true that matters, but how much it shows up on social media nowadays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An easy target is ethnic tensions but also political divisions where the level is already at “you are a Nazi” when it comes to your political opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n

Contradictions between countries in Europe cannot be hoped to be achieved by Russia, so they have to settle for the next best thing – internal strife, toppled governments, and economic crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If they could, they would have incited interstate wars here, but it had to be in Africa and Asia instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Did you hear that 16 local politicians in Germany have died in the past month?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/news.sky.com\/story\/online-conspiracy-theories-rife-after-16-election-candidates-die-in-germany-13427546<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I immediately asked if it was Russia, to which a unanimous Bluesky burst out laughing, but if the opposition doesn’t start killing at some point, Russia will take care of that part, it’s included in the package.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To me, it looks like an ambitious attempt to destabilize Germany, even though the police have ruled out “foul play” – I don’t know what that means, probably that they are natural deaths as described by the BBC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/c5ykyewrerpo<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4-5 times excess mortality, in any case, if you had sold a drug, you would have gone bankrupt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think it’s starting to get ridiculous with all the explanatory models that are supposed to be launched when the truth is that Russia has now started to seriously destabilize us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We said in the fall of 2024 – winter of 2025 that we would come here this summer, and we have indeed done that – quite predictable all this as long as one accepts that China and Russia are on an escalating upward curve and already at war with us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If one doesn’t accept that, one continues to find alternative explanatory models and make a big deal out of the occasions we pounce on that turn out to be wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As I said, we are in the most dangerous phase of the war in Ukraine and also on the brink of further escalation towards Europe, which will close in the summer of 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whichever way we resist until the summer of 2026 is good, but if we fail, the downside is absolutely brutal, and then it would have been better to go to open war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I’m a bit like Churchill, whom I recently discovered I’m related to, so you must address me as Lord from now on – “never take a chance and strike first” was his motto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The highest risk is if Russia attacks down towards Lviv from Belarus and Poland does not enter Ukraine. After Poland’s positioning in recent weeks, I’m starting to worry about that, and we have had it as a guaranteed commitment from Poland throughout the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It will then be paired with an attack up from Transnistria and a crossing of the Dnieper, even though the 104th AAD has now left the Dnieper front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The risk is high because the consequence of Ukraine being overrun and losing the war is unpredictable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A significantly lower risk is if Putin believes he can get away with invading the Baltics, low probability on that, so then the risk becomes low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then you have the lowest risk of opening a conflict with Europe in the Baltics through Estonian partisans and green men – the risk is low because the consequence is initially low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the financial markets crash, the risk is no longer low, as it would affect our willingness to engage in violent conquest wars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latter two are good for Ukraine in the long run because they draw Europe into the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Substack – there is still a chance to become subscribers, and it is valuable to me if you want to become paying ones. All content is posted freely to everyone, but it still takes a lot of time to put together, costs 80 SEK per month, and then you skip a dinner at McDonald’s, so it’s also healthy – Johan No.1 also makes you healthier \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Continued appreciation for the site johanno1.se is always gratefully received, and there is a QR code for the purpose that you absolutely must not miss since we have costs, and there is a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you liked the post – please share it in your channels, and most importantly, please share the English version with people you think may appreciate posts and comments they have not been able to read before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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