Below is a long and sour post mostly about Poland, but later this week there will be violent deaths of Russian bastards again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The overall situation for ground combat as we know it \u2013<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia has sustained an offensive since the fall of 2023, and they have more to give in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump wanted a ceasefire, and Europe + Ukraine supported it, but Putin refused until this summer because he believed he didn’t need it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China has ramped up their war material production, annually capable of building – 1500 tanks, several thousand IFVs\/APCs, +1000 robots, and they claim they can build 79,000 Geran drones per year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n RU has started using autonomous attack drones on a large scale in Ukraine, and they have received laser weapons from China to shoot down aerial targets, the exact number of which we do not know, but we know they are with China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I have speculated that China has provided high-value targets in Russia with their latest LV against drones, but we haven’t seen much results of that so far, it’s still booming \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia has 700,000 troops in Ukraine, they still have the initiative at the fronts, and there will be a major showdown at Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka soon. Both RU and UA have rushed in mechanized forces, and in today’s drone environment, this will be a very bloody series of battles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia’s indirect capabilities are DAILY – 5000 FPV drones, 140 FAB, 5000 artillery, and then +50 air raids. You can read that list as a comment in the thread every day from MXT at johanno1.se.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We know that Russia has a strategic offensive reserve, but we don’t know exactly how large it is – at least an AC and 2-3 divisions. We also know that the Russian troop movement before their offensive is from existing fronts and existing units.<\/p>\n\n\n\n North Korea’s 11th AC is also supposed to arrive at the northern front or is already there, totaling 30,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We also know that much of the new equipment is not in large quantities at the fronts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine has adapted its warfare and is saving lives today, thinning out the Russian ranks effectively. Ukraine also has its own strategic offensive reserves. I guess they must keep an eye on Transnistria and Belarus now, so the units are a bit scattered over the area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They lose 1:3 in KWIA, but the number of casualties on the RU side is significantly higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For some months now, Ukraine has been engaging in a more aggressive and dynamic defense, but somewhat in the shadows, things don’t look good in northern Luhansk. Ukraine is slowly losing ground, conducting local counterattacks where it is most critical, and they have their main defense line outside the areas Putin wants to conquer – but they are not planning to retreat to it without a fight, that’s clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The overall situation for strategic bombing warfare as we know it \u2013<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia can conduct a mission with 500 Geran drones at most, and they now have missions about twice a week where they also incorporate robots?<\/p>\n\n\n\n China has ramped up all production lines, and even the launch pads are cheap cars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We know that RU has good accuracy and target acquisition if they want, and they have now launched their older equipment, so even if we don’t discuss it, they hit UA where it hurts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine is shooting down fewer targets than before, at best +90% now around 80% or lower, and they rarely bring down enough of the robots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Geran jet engines are apparently difficult to shoot down, and RU is transitioning to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine has at times stated that Western LVs are not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine initiated full asymmetric warfare in early August and is now (not for the USA but for Europe) targeting the goals they deem necessary in Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They target the entire fuel, LNG, and oil chain – depots, pipelines, refineries, and export terminals for all three products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For a month now, their focus has been to create fuel shortages in southern Russia and have succeeded quite well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They also target ammunition, staffs, and bases, and Crimea now looks more like a pre-emptive strike than strategic bombing \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Both Ukraine and Russia are preparing to target the power infrastructure in the fall\/winter, and Ukraine has experience in solving it during crises, but Russia does not have it in the same way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Overall, Ukraine has the advantage of being able to hold out longer than Russia, and if this continues undisturbed, there is a chance that Russia will collapse under the external pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Combat plans of the parties<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine<\/strong> aims to destabilize Russia so that the country turns inward and internal conflicts begin, then they can help partial republics gain their freedom, eliminate new criminal-clan candidates early, and in various ways minimize the Russian threat. Breaking away Belarus that turns west, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They will then regain their country when the war ends and the Russian army leaves, and there will be permanent peace in their vicinity as oblasts bordering them want to be friends with Ukraine, and a future threat will be very small when surrounded by allies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Europe and the USA have tried to avoid this for three years, Europe has probably accepted it now, but the USA still opposes it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n GUR, Atesh, liberation fronts in Russia, political opposition, freedom-seeking partial republics, and Belarus opposition are all UA tools to achieve this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine holds out at the fronts, they carry out some spectacular offensives like the Azov thrust, they bomb Russia to pieces, and use all the above tools to bring down the country – if we maintain support, they will succeed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They should have won the war already in 2022 and then 2023, but they were not allowed by the USA and Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia<\/strong> aims to bring down Ukraine, but they are in a mess right now and still map with oblasts. They tried to get a free lunch politically, but Trump failed to deliver on that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At a minimum, they have planned roughly the terrain up to the Dnieper and along the Black Sea coast because they need to connect with Transnistria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The next target is beyond all of Ukraine, of course, the Baltics, which they know they can never politically bring down, but they don’t want a full NATO conflict on their hands because they can’t handle it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n An escalation in Ukraine would be to attack from Belarus and northward from Transnistria – Ukraine would have problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They have a very large organization for sabotage and subversive activities in Europe and plan to bring down the countries in the Balkans one by one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They have also tied Spain, Slovakia, Serbia, and Hungary at present, and the Czech Republic risks a pro-Russian leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n In Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands, are there pro-Russian parties on the rise at least?<\/p>\n\n\n\n To me, it looks like the goal is to establish the western border of the Soviet Union roughly with the buffer zone against Muscovite Russia, if possible?<\/p>\n\n\n\n At the very least, they probably want a foothold in Europe through the Baltic states like an open wound, and then engage in full subversive activities against the whole of Europe, which they are good at.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They are good at it because it is a state-prioritized function, and we do not engage in such activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They intend to pursue this permanently as a new cold war, but they must first gain a foothold. They like this because then the criminal clan, which happens to have a country, has all of Europe as its workplace again and can enrich itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is what Europe has to try to handle, and we had a first test a few days ago when Putin fired a warning shot at us to test our response.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We have had 3.5 years to prepare, and Ukraine has repeatedly offered to train us, manufacture weapons for us, and provide us with technology and know-how, but we seem not to have been very interested in it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We should already have UA instructors throughout Europe, but we do not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia can wage war in 2025 together with Ukraine because they have learned the hard way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China has also embraced this early, as we have seen in various movies, which of course do not represent the entire defense forces but prioritized units.<\/p>\n\n\n\n How did the beta test go for us?<\/p>\n\n\n\n I give Poland an IG in handling the drone attack, using very expensive robots and shooting down only 20% – 47% of a very limited drone operation was terrible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Naturally, all 19-23 should have been shot down 100m from the border with cheap ammunition as a clear signal to Russia that we are ready for their nonsense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n How on earth could Poland not have that readiness after +3 years of full-scale war on its border, and after a total of 50 drones and robots made their way from Ukraine to Poland, the Baltics, and Romania since 2022 is beyond me, but evidently, they did not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And no, they did not hold back that capability because precisely 19-23 were chosen to trigger a full air defense \u2013 Poland did what they could, and top fighter jets from 3-4 countries participated in the operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I find it hard to believe that more aircraft could have been squeezed into Polish airspace, actually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Furthermore, Poland is now complaining and seeking help from all of Europe, which is downright embarrassing \u2013 first, they openly say “we do not have the ability to defend ourselves, help,” and then their respect for Ukraine is poor; they had about 400 drones over them when Poland had 20, and now Poland wants us to help them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Like little daycare prima donnas who want to be first in line \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n\n\n\n I am also very surprised; we have heard strong words from Poland before, but in the first test, they performed poorly. I did not expect that, and this was in line with my most pessimistic posts last spring and early summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine is doing the right thing and offers to organize Poland’s air defense \u2013 a good initiative \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The counter-demand is, of course, a no-fly zone in western Ukraine, which they will not get as thanks for saving Poland \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!Zs5r!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc9afa5df-aacc-466d-908f-06db8f202ab6_1173x853.png\")
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