{"id":2769,"date":"2025-09-16T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-september-16-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-09-17T07:03:16","modified_gmt":"2025-09-17T05:03:16","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-september-16-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-september-16-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update September 16, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Mid-month means Substack ads. Yes, you still have the chance to give up half a McDonald’s meal per month and become subscribers to Substack if you read what is written.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You never agree on everything but if there is more good than bad, all contributions are welcome – it takes a lot of time, nothing writes itself before I figure out how AI works.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, it contributes to improved health – double win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now we are past the disappointment that Europe has not learned the 2025 war yet and that Poland’s attempt at “force posture” at the border with Belarus is just a bunch of FPV drone targets driving around. The fact that we haven’t bothered to learn is incomprehensible to me but apparently that’s how it is, and after I chose to tell the truth, more and more leaders in Europe are starting to follow my example and do the same, which is good. They all read the blog so it’s quite understandable that those with integrity can’t hold back any longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then Poland wants all the equipment we should send to Ukraine, which is ridiculous, cowardly, and weak, but it is in line with how Europe has behaved throughout a whole war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The damn Romanians escort a Russian Geran through their airspace until it turns back into Ukraine and its goal \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then they sit and complain on social media about all the hate they receive when they have been complicit in aiding murder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It took just one little test by Putin for Europe to completely embarrass itself, with the exception of a few sensible countries. The dangerous thing is that Putin could interpret this as us being cowardly and indecisive and consider increasing drone activity or completely misunderstand that we do not intend to defend the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My self-image of Europe is shattered now because if there was something I believed, it was that we had used this time to learn the 2025 war so that when the drone attack finally came, it would be shot down 100m from the border. Not that 80% of the drones crashed due to running out of fuel 370km into Poland, and that Poland started cascading in tears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Didn’t Ukraine stop shooting expensive robots at Geran a year ago?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is it really the case that Europe’s leaders still do not understand that Ukraine stands between us and war with Russia – are they so poorly informed about this?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have been saying this since 2022 and that is also the reason why many of us follow this war as intensively as we do because Ukraine is our bulwark and also the adults in the room.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We understood this already in 2022 but having missed reading Johan No.1 is not a valid excuse forever \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The likelihood of a full conflict with NATO is probably small at present and apparently not until 2028 according to all experts, but IF Russia were to get a feeling, every single one forgets their twilight mode plans from the Cold War that have surely been dusted off by 2025. It is never part of any discussion with those who want to argue with me that I am exaggerating – comments are pouring in on all channels now upset over my defeatism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In these patriotic comments, the mechanized brigades roll towards Moscow and the heavy attack sweeps over the Baltic Sea – we tried this during a few summer months in 1940 with meager results at first, having prepared for the previous war and thinking that we are invincible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And after the Cold War, Europe understood how much shorter notice they had than they thought, Russian GTD equipment was stored disguised as sheds near the western border. They had never had the warning when tanks rolled on the trains at the regimental sites, instead only 12-24 hours or something similar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the Cold War in Sweden, in a twilight mode, they would try to kill all the pilots, mine the runways again, and blow up as many Viggen aircraft as they could before the air force moved to road bases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then they hoped that only five aircraft would remain without missiles for they had been blown up in the mob depots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The saboteurs were a mix of traitors, embedded Spetznaz, and previously infiltrated spies and saboteurs who had been living in the country. They would show up in home guard uniforms, police uniforms, and military uniforms they had stolen earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They intended to set up ambushes at mob depots and have police cordons that caught those on their way to assembly points, in addition to blowing up as many depots as possible, of course.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They aimed to kill politicians and high-ranking officers, blow up power supply, bomb subways, train networks, and anything possible to create maximum chaos and delay our mobilization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They planned to poison the water supply at regimental sites and if you remember, the defense forces tested it in Boden in the 90s, the whole regiment and half of Boden were at home sick. They were probably quite dismayed after that result and how easy it was to knock out a whole brigade, besides probably getting a good scolding \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2024, we issued 400,000 Schengen visas to Russian citizens and everyone laughs at my “gangs are system-threatening” but they are mercenaries that can be hired – for the murders above, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They are already in the country and before they do anything, they cannot be arrested – almost better than the spy rings during the Cold War.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, we have infinitely worse protection around our bases due to drone weapons, and if Ukraine could knock out 40% of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, Russia can do the same.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Below is my proposal for a twilight mode before full-scale war in Europe –<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An attack on Europe will not be that on day one they roll over the border and we meet them with our mechanized forces and then combat the heavy attack targets throughout Russia so we win the war by day four.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our deployed high-value aircraft will be fought with FPV drones, and when they are about to take off, the gangs with manpads are waiting. Only Sweden had the road base system, all others had some large air bases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They will try to blow up our missile and ammunition depots that they can access, and today they are much more centralized and accessible than during the Cold War.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fleets will run into underwater mines, sabotage groups with anti-ship missiles in the military sea lanes, submarines further out, and initially pure sabotage against the ships at the dock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You don’t need to sink a ship, it’s enough if the engine is cut or the fire control system is damaged, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They will try to kill pilots, officers, and politicians with the gangs before they go into staff mode or mobilize. Everyone will get a visit from food delivery services, DHL, Postnord, who when they open the door, put a bullet in them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don’t know how it is with service weapons, but when I was going to join the home guard a year ago, which didn’t happen because they have no real missions on Zoom, you keep the weapon in the armory and not at home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I was accepted, by the way – made it through this veritable needle’s eye for the elite of the elite. Another point on the list of the million things I almost did.<\/p>\n\n\n

All our governments also try to disarm the citizens as much as possible, so our preparedness for a twilight situation is not exactly better than during the Cold War when the door-to-door salesmen would knock, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since we are evidently reactive now, the first strike, IF it comes, will be from Russia, right? We will not preemptively clean up among gangs, Russians, and criminal clans in Europe as we should for several reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I say like Churchill – never take a chance, strike first and hit damn hard \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A lot of wisdom from him over the years, and I have learned from them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia is constantly scouting with hundreds of drone flyovers per month. Sabotage against our air forces, fleets, and war industry we already have, but not at all at the level required before a war breaks out in a twilight scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The power grid will be sabotaged with extensive power outages, and key mobilization points will be targeted for bombings, such as T-Centralen, airports, train stations, and the railway network.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is our railway network electrified?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even before we attempt to mobilize, all airports and train stations will be closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And finally, mine the distances and have the drone screen deployed when our brigades are supposed to reach their assembly areas if it is in the Baltics after Russia has attacked first – which they will do because we do not intend to group before a conflict as we should according to the mission description.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe is absolutely not ready for any of this, I can almost guarantee that because our security services no longer secretly kill Russians to protect our democracies (I think \ud83d\ude36).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We barely have any home guard left and no mobilizable defense guard for high-value targets, and now the police are supposed to have a civilian function in case of war – no preparedness police either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looks the same all over Europe more or less.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia today has the same or even greater organization in Europe as during the Cold War, and they can operate almost undisturbed. Probably with better organization since criminal clans are infiltrated throughout civil society and can also be hired beyond the gangs’ “deadly-gun-for-best-price-bro.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If they’re stingy, they can just place an order with the strawberry guy for 30 murders for a few bucks per murder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think this has completely disappeared from the debate, and mostly it’s just a lot of big words about how we will crush Russia if they try, but if you want peace, you should prepare for war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is something Europe has not done, except for Finland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now that we have only prepared for peace, we might as well get the war instead \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Something new, and I was wrong the first time in three years –<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine shot down half of the drones flying towards Poland, whether they shot down Geran and let decoys pass, I don’t know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So I was wrong in saying that Ukraine let them through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Bloomberg has an article about Ukraine possibly going too far, and Europe getting upset with them. I thought Europe was on board…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Drone attacks, demonstrations in the UK (upcoming!), demonstrations in France, election influence in Germany are probably all attempts to influence Europe to try to limit Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At this point, Ukraine stopped last time with the bombing of Russian high-value targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We’ll see what Europe’s leaders say and do in the future, it will be interesting, and I’ll keep an eye out. \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Ukraine stops droning refineries and infrastructure before 100% is shot down, it’s because they’ve been stopped by Europe since they lack drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is quite clear that Russia intends to increase the pace in the Baltics, probably best done with “Estonian partisans” and anonymous green men, as well as a lot of sabotage. They do not want to trigger NATO Article 5 and will try to go as far as they can under that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We know what the USA plans to do if they can get away with it – nothing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe is evidently deviating from the job description regarding the units that should be in the Baltics in the event of a conflict because the brigades should be there with an increased threat level and Zapad 25 and the drone cloud over Poland the other day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They probably understand that if they face the war of 2025, there will only be decimated capability left, which is also why they have reduced troops in Ukraine unless guaranteed peace, but even the cowards barely dare that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe has absolutely zero interest in risking our heavy equipment in war right now – it couldn’t be more obvious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What remains then are our special forces in all their forms in Europe – a resource that is already better suited for the warfare of 2025 today and also provides the opportunity for “full deniability” while denying Russia the achievement of any of its goals in the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Probably that’s where we will end up in the best-case scenario, as Europe already has quite a bit of capability sneaking around in the forests, and Russia will try to infiltrate its capability so that it becomes a hidden high-intensity war that both parties deny – because no one wants to activate Article 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It will be lively in the Baltic forests in the future; I don’t think Ukraine has anything to spare reasonably, otherwise, they wouldn’t want to miss it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It will sort out the Baltics but not Ukraine at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine has done well so far, and down in Crimea, the droning now seems more like pre-emptive action, so there is some suspicion of a certain push \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Did you see our weapons package to Ukraine the other day \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, Russia has withdrawn its task forces from the Dnieper front, so it can hardly get any better than this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The asymmetric warfare that we declared in 2023 would win the war before they were stopped can now be seen by everyone that it will win the war in the long run if they are allowed to continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This has been said a few times now – how Europe acts in the future will have a significant impact on how this goes. So far, Poland has completely messed up, but with a bit of luck, maybe it was a collective wake-up call that they embarrassed themselves?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As this develops now, Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, Siversk, and northern Luhansk will be abandoned over time, all else being equal, and Ukraine will retreat to its main defense line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The time they buy is for the strategic drone war that harms Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine may try to increase the pace with the “Azov thrust.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Russia attacks from Belarus or out of Transnistria, Ukraine will have problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have handled worse than that, for sure, but we don’t really know how bad their ground troops are, as we have a positive bias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At Kamyanske, they are also retreating<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

You can see Lyman for yourself<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kupiansk<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

RU is weak at the Dnieper now, which is an opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But at Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, RU has gathered a lot of capability and intends to advance. Ukraine has rushed in its task forces, and it will be bloody.<\/p>\n\n\n

Can you win the war with a successful strategic drone war?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Did Ukraine surrender when all their infrastructure was bombed in the first year?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then it remains to combine with a spectacular offensive at the fronts or increase the Russian pressure cooker, which Ukraine is now doing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Putin has shown to have the country in a good grip and China is filling in what is missing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine has done what was required \u2013 in 2022 Putin threatened with piracy but promised that if the West let him back into SWIFT, there would be peace on the world’s oceans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We were about to say yes and then Ukraine started sinking the Russian Black Sea fleet so it fled in panic to Novorossiysk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The West didn’t want that either \u2013 Moscow probably managed to sink Ukraine because they saw it on the radar in the communications center in Wiesbaden and the Ukrainian liaison officer said he would take a quick smoke and WhatsApped the coordinates already in the stairwell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The USA was furious about that move but it also tells us how much intel they have withheld from Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have reached a new level in the war \u2013 Ukraine is now fighting as they see fit and no longer listening to the USA and apparently Europe as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The USA has tried to stop this audacity but they can only go so far in their attempts even if they want to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe is probably divided and Ukraine likely has Scandinavia and the Baltics at least on their side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poland has started to falter along with Germany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UK and France did not do that and they faced a government crisis and mass demonstrations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The dark black no one wants to talk about \u2013 they are afraid of Putin as individuals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tomorrow we will discuss what is needed to win the war, which is a recycling of our battle plans from 2022 and early 2023 that Zelensky is actually still following, I receive a thank you on WhatsApp in between for providing them back in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By the way, remember all those who wanted to argue with me when I claimed that Ukraine is the world’s best shooter and they sat on their high European or NATO horse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think Ukraine has already shown it but there is also a tank that has hit targets 9km away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On Substack \u2013 there is still a chance to become subscribers and it is valuable to me if you want to become paying ones. All content is posted freely to everyone but it still takes a lot of time to put together, costs 80 SEK per month, and then you skip a dinner at McDonald’s so it is also healthy \u2013 Johan No.1 will make you healthier too \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Continued appreciation for the site johanno1.se is always gratefully received and there is a QR code for the purpose that you absolutely must not miss as we have costs and there is a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Mid-month means Substack ads. 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