{"id":2795,"date":"2025-09-19T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-19T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-september-19-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-09-20T09:51:21","modified_gmt":"2025-09-20T07:51:21","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-september-19-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-september-19-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update September 19, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Dudayev said that “when the Ukrainian sun rises, the Russian empire falls,” freely translated as I haven’t memorized his statements as well as Churchill’s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Churchill also said that “a dead Russian bastard is a good Russian bastard, but a shot in the knee with buckshot works too,” but later clarified that he did not mean children under 18 when the children’s ombudsman brought him to court in the early 1940s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine is the only country that can reach Russia, and Europe can retaliate against old cheese for a very cheap price. The French are still bitter about Russia invading Paris back in the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Germans got what they deserved, although maybe they don’t count, but we Swedes have an unresolved issue, and so do Finland and all of Eastern Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But winning the war through strategic droning is far from certain, despite what everyone is now enthusiastically claiming \u2013 this is the third round with refineries, and we thought the oligarchs and siloviks would hang Putin the first time around, but we have learned the hard way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I already learned on May 9, 2022, that the war was a fly on Putin’s coat, which was indeed annoying but not a big flying dinosaur. Now today, the fly is much bigger, but the constant hope of an imminent collapse always makes us feel like we don’t need to do anything. Some suspicion about those who are pushing that narrative, General SVR was early, and Putin has died a few times there \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin has good control over the country, and China is providing what is needed (for now).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s also a routine curve, so now citizens and the clan’s accomplices are used to this \u2013 a new normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The country probably needs a significant violent push, and Ukraine has already gone all-in with subversive activities in Russia, despite wild protests from the West, a bit of liberation killing here and there. A whole bunch of partial republics are sitting on the fence, waiting for Russia to show weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

May 9, 2025, and the subsequent meeting in China did not show Russia as weak at all, so right now, it’s probably only Azerbaijan openly siding with Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If they had droned Putin on May 9, as they easily could have done, maybe the revolution would have started by now, but I guess Trump, Xi, and every leader in Europe personally called Zelensky to ensure the opposite. Yours truly wanted it because I wanted to start the revolution as soon as possible, but all the cowards said no.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are liberation fronts in Russia that Ukraine collaborates with, as well as opposition that is not Navalny’s wife, who mostly wants to restore tsarist Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many want their freedom, but everyone is a coward and waits until it’s safe, just like Europe does, shamelessly, cowardly, and unmanly (and all other gender identities).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine probably needs to do something bigger on the battlefield as well to convince all the doubters, we have a strong positive bias when it comes to Ukraine and praise even the smallest shot but turn a blind eye to Russian successes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Right now, everyone wants to talk about a few hundred, and soon maybe a few thousand, surrounded Russians when Ukraine is still retreating almost everywhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we strip away all the rhetoric and look at what’s happening in action, Northern Luhansk is probably lost, and there will soon be a power struggle in Donbass on a very large scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At Kamyanske, RU is now advancing towards Stepnohirsk and can start rolling up the southern front from behind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not to mention Siversk \u2013 things are going poorly there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is constantly warned about in my posts because this is what we see in action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But do not despair, Bakhmut was the flytrap, so now Pokrovsk \u2013 Kostiantynivka \u2013 Novopavlivka is the flytrap of the year 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine always strikes on the flanks, and instead of the northern front, maybe it’s Belarus this time \u2013 that probably depends 100% on what Europe’s leaders say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But yes, Ukraine still maintains a forest of units at Kursk, and there is a long border in Bryansk and Belgorod oblasts as well \u2013 they must be used for something.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Reconnaissance is back in action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And then the Azov offensive \u2013 this legendary target of attack that a world-leading blogger has been describing since 2022 so everyone knows the details.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine now has a HUGE capacity for amphibious warfare after all they have received from the West, along with a high capability for airborne operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I believe I’ve counted over 300 capable vessels like our SB-90 and various other countries’ equivalents down to larger dinghies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Previously, the 70th MRD was supposed to have been moved to Pokrovsk from the Dnieper front, and later also the 104th AAD, although it is still marked there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides the 98th AD, there are no competent strike forces left at the Dnieper front after that relocation \u2013 that’s all the Dnieper commander has available if things escalate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don’t know what’s down in Crimea \u2013 not much, but the FSB and Rosgvardia are probably not marked on the maps, and they have bases everywhere, in addition to the navy and the air force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Dnieper front has probably never been more attractive, and raids can be conducted along the entire coast from Kinburn Spit down to Crimea, where all the headquarters and rear functions have been relocated with said watercraft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Considering that Ukraine now has very little ammunition for HIMARS, what’s below is almost considered pre-emptive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

We know that today in 2025, drones and FAB supporting smaller units are fully feasible as an offensive armored fist \u2013 RU is advancing on that, motorcycles and sand buggies under a violent indirect umbrella.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We also know that mechanized warfare has just returned, suggesting a lot of upcoming Russian offensives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Zelensky now has 100 tank battalions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Did a blogger have a point since January claiming that Ukraine has a strategic offensive reserve when everyone else was crying cascades?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If I were to guess \u2013 100 battalions with all sorts of armor protection and some tanks, a mosaic?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Back to the 2025 Azov offensive, which is light-years ahead of the 2023 Azov offensive in every aspect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Ukraine consolidates its electronic warfare and drone capabilities at the Dnieper front, they will have an absolute advantage there. They can blanket all Russian units and deny Russian drones access to the fronts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They also have a high capability for deep strikes with FAB, CAS, and drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Already today, Russian LV is almost defeated on Crimea and behind the Dnieper, and the air force can operate in the area, which it does, we recently posted about FAB against some FSB base in Crimea, I believe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Ukraine were to fully deploy amphibious warfare between Kinburn Spit \u2013 Crimea, increase pressure at the Dnieper, and at the right moment conduct airborne operations to block the land bridge to Crimea, it would be possible to strangle the peninsula.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Kerch Bridge is probably already a “walking dead”?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Therefore, the units that expose themselves to danger against the barbarian hordes have drones and FAB available for indirect deep strikes. Since they land\/airdrop in areas without Russians, the Russians must travel by road and on foot to get there, which equals a lot of dead Russians right away along the roads.<\/p>\n\n\n

This is what experts call the Davidyi Brid effect, make a raid into an undefended area and go on the defensive under your indirect-fire umbrella and await grilled BTG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Someone epic blogger coined that term back in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Considering that RU is withdrawing forces from the Dnieper, Ukraine has the capabilities and they gladly conduct offensives in a 1:5 numerical disadvantage because they are the world’s best shooters, so the conditions are now there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just as RU and Ukraine both hold back a strategic offensive reserve, as we have long written, and now Zelensky just confirmed the above – right as always.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We can only hope that Russia burns its capabilities in Donbass and sends forces north so the scales tip in favor of UA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UA has the air force, they have FAB, drone coverage, strategic drones, EW, helicopters, and naval vessels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Everyone who didn’t sleep through history lessons also knows that Crimea is not defensible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Ukraine does as they please, then it’s definitely game-on ahead, provided Europe doesn’t manage to crash the party again. We have been surprisingly creative before together with the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I am ashamed of the USA and Europe, but that is offset by an increasing respect for Ukraine \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We saw this trait back in 2022, enduring endlessly with stabs in the back from their friends to eventually come out on top requires a tough person, woman, man, or other gender identity – all countries hope they are equally tough but give up after two weeks instead when put to the test once per century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then the country has a national trauma to process after that and they promise “never again.” I can imagine what it does to self-confidence to do like Poland and make the same mistake 100 years later, almost time to shut down the country if you manage to prepare for yesterday’s war twice in a row.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will Russia fall before the Azov thrust, Operation Free Belarus, or the Great Invasion of Bryansk?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The velvet gloves that Europe has put on, that Trump is Krasnov, and that China is propping up probably allow Putin to stay at the table unless a killing blow comes from a street-smart Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Azov thrust is a deadly blow and FIM will probably open the fine whiskey just like that and then get scolded by his wife.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Actually, Ukraine needs a little help to be on the safe side, and if the Russian bastards don’t dare do anything in the Baltics, then Poland and the Balts should cross the border into Russia instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finland too – restore Greater Finland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Can we afford to take chances any longer?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I know it will never happen, but I wouldn’t take the risk if I were a dictator, if we end up with a summer in 2023, this war could be over with Russia having the advantage. Then Ukraine will have a lot of negative things to say about Europe and probably take what they believe they are entitled to through the underworld eagerly cheered on by the FSB and GUR. I have now understood that Europe doesn’t even work with a risk list, but we should.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have full confidence that the Azov thrust will be delivered with elegance and be as deadly as a hungry cat seeing a boiled shrimp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Heck knows why Trump and everyone else has taken Lukashenko under their wings right now, have they all caught wind that the country is about to fall instead of him joining the war – something is fishy about that anyway because he is treated like a rock star by everyone, Xi, Putin, Trump, EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anyway, Zapad 25 is officially over, and all forces are returning to their staging areas, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(rhetorical question, more to come).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You all remember the grand campaign plan and when UA has isolated Crimea and taken the NS line through Melitopol – then they have lied an immense number of brigades at this now shorter front line and can open an attack vector NE straight into the soft parts of Donbass.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then it will get lively for real.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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