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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nRussia has chosen to wage war in Ukraine with older fragmentation protection and armor now to equip its offensive strategic reserve and prioritized brigades. That means poor aiming devices and poor vehicles at the fronts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraine has had a huge REMO with the help of half of Europe, and many of the old fragmentation protections in all models now have new weapon stations and aiming devices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The tanks probably have okay aiming devices but I guess the same turret?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The 100 mechanized battalions drive vehicles with night combat capability that actually see something unlike the Russians’ counterparts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russian units beyond the special forces, I believe, are low on night combat equipment, no night vision goggles and nothing in the vehicles. If they have night vision goggles, I don’t think the organization works so that they always have batteries with them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sure, China could send a million night vision goggles, but they haven’t done it yet, and then night combat is a whole new animal RU hasn’t learned yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraine has received an obscene amount from the West so that a dozen brigades could have full night vision if they pooled it at least, and they have actively worked on this capability – probably more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Too little is said about this, but it is in the background and has probably been the springboard we haven’t seen for some of the spectacular offensives from Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yes, the Russians have observation drones that see in the dark, but it translates to mud Ivan in his hole, and that chain is currently breaking down completely because he can’t see a damn thing in the dark, and instructions over the earpiece are pointless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So full marks for Ukraine in night combat and not so much for the Russian bastards, when they run out of light after half an hour, it gets dark, and they become prey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The drone weapon is constantly evolving, and now “interceptor drones” are on their way to neutralize Shaheds, called Geran, which has a jet engine so Ukraine can only shoot down +70% instead of +90% right now, but everything is constantly fluctuating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
F-16s combat Russian robots, and sometimes it goes very well, sometimes not so well – Russia has probably launched its inferior robots now and has more capable ones left that are fired fewer times and more often get through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraine has acquired all robot capabilities – heavy, light, fast, and modern robots in addition to the drone weapon, which sometimes are almost hybrids between them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Neptune is used, and the rumors about Flamingo are that they are being built in tens every month or that they are not being built at all, but Ukraine definitely has robots and Flamingo has been used in combat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Currently, Russia is unable to defend itself in depth AND at the front line, Crimea is almost defenseless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia recently wanted to buy back S400 from Turkey, so they are definitely starting to have a shortage of LV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But here, China is far ahead, and sooner or later they will have enough advanced LV in place so that Ukraine’s light deep strike with extremely high impact is stopped.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And then it all starts over again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We are soon in October, and China will not have deployed anything before the coldest winter, so this year Ukraine will seriously pull down the curtain in Russia – wait and see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia has recently jumped the gun, and so has Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n Paired with the large soup cod and the Azov thrust, maybe that’s enough to kickstart the revolution?<\/p>\n\n\n\n UA has FAB, French hammer among other things, and I would be surprised if they haven’t built their own by now and they are dropped with the spearhead. Behind the Dnieper front, UA can fly FAB missions and we all know how terrible that bomb is so there are wonderful results in that area with a lot of beautiful death. If FAB worked for Russia, it works for Ukraine too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The USA has probably stopped providing target coordinates to Ukraine \u2013 hard to believe that it would continue and besides, they already confirmed it back in 2023 if I remember correctly when Biden ruled. Forget that Trump would have let it go.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But Ukraine bought its own satellite and scans all commercial ones for information as well \u2013 they probably have good information gathering with satellites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then drone weapons have gradually become more important for information gathering and UA is far ahead in that regard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They find the targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then ATESH spies for Ukraine in occupied areas and inside Russia \u2013 ATESH has spread exponentially and is probably a collective name for Russian liberation fronts, GUR, SOF, and the partisans operating in depth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russian desertion has reached epidemic proportions \u2013 Tendar has summaries I couldn’t find but there are tens of thousands who have deserted and it indicates great dissatisfaction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n RU solves it with blocking battalions but if you can drone and put FAB in their bases, which Ukraine does, you remove a stumbling block for the army to choose life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As we have long written since the turn of the year, Ukraine has its own offensive reserve and they had plans for an offensive already in the fall of 2024 but Trump ruined the party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We have not yet seen the Russian strategic offensive reserve that even Finland confirmed existed, so it’s not just me speculating freely, and apparently ISW as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine should try to bring down Belarus, if there are no Russian forces there, the country should be easy to tackle with popular revolution and army revolt \u2013 and everyone says it’s empty of Russians \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Attack vectors at the northern front should also come and reconnaissance has been there for months so UA has planned something.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Transnistria could also be a UA offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And Crimea, Azov thrust, now UA half confirms that in some statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But as said many times (also) \u2013 for UA to have a chance to succeed, full asymmetric warfare is required and the West does not leak battle plans again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine kills Russian top officials as many as they can reach, surely part of the window jumps UA. Hungary’s soup cod is an attempt to bring down Orban in the election and spark opposition against Fico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Poland, which we have rightly criticized, has also proposed a no-fly zone in western Ukraine now that they understood they needed Ukraine and then the border with Belarus was closed so China absolutely screamed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But Trump has also been tough on Denmark, which is perhaps the country in Europe that has done the most for Ukraine besides Finland and the Baltics but quietly. Macron is all hot air but less delivery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And China has gradually shown what they think of Europe \u2013 Von Der Leyen was received by an administrator and shown to the bus that took them to a mediocre hotel and then there was a meeting with some intern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We in Europe, the Vikings and all the others who are weak, now have an opportunity to piggyback on Ukraine and throw off the suffocating blanket that Russia, China, and the USA have laid over us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Because even if we don’t dare right now, Ukraine has an ace up its sleeve that according to them is enough to dare to feel hope about the situation – that’s what we see in Zelensky now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China deserves to be brought down and probably financial circles in the USA have identified it as the next smash-and-grab maybe?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Europe should now take the opportunity to not participate in more than getting our eastern border straightened out as before, our industry built up, and to connect Africa to us for raw materials, fair trade agreements, and the markets’ market in the future for our products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We probably have reason to come back to this because the likelihood that Europe will do everything right in the future is probably microscopic. <\/p>\n\n\n\n I find it hard to shake off the feeling that the citizens of Europe are currently being kept busy with other things than what is important while we are on our way to our era’s great war at worst and a major financial crash (again) at best. All media is becoming a study in madness and the polarization is deafening \u2013 very many are currently trying to pit groups against each other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n UK’s strategy to try to prosecute those who want to talk about the problems will definitely backfire but across Europe, populist parties are gaining ground. Spain has a leftward shift, for example, many have right-wing and we may well risk an S that depends on V and MP next autumn. But if it is democratically elected, then you have to accept it whether it is right or left in the populist parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On Substack \u2013 there is still a chance to become subscribers and it is valuable to me if you want to become paying ones. All content is posted freely to everyone but it still takes a lot of time to put together, costs 80 SEK per month, and then you skip a meal at McDonald’s so it is also healthy \u2013 Johan No.1 also makes you healthier \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Continued appreciation for the site johanno1.se is always gratefully received and there is a QR code for the purpose that you absolutely must not miss as we have costs and there is a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you liked the post \u2013 please share it in your channels and above all, please share the English version with people you think may appreciate posts and comments they have not been able to read before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n