{"id":2912,"date":"2025-10-03T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-03T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-october-3-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-10-04T00:31:44","modified_gmt":"2025-10-03T22:31:44","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-october-3-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-october-3-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update October 3, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Now a whole post went up in smoke again – a tragedy for Sweden but you don’t need to fly the flag at half-mast as I took a morning and rewrote it again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do you know what is growing stronger in me – the world is turning upside down and in good times of prosperity and peace, our most important issues can be child benefits and shorter working hours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now in times of unrest, we need to discuss how to hit the Russians hardest and take down China, preferably economically, but if that doesn’t work, there will be war – a very big war in Asia that the USA will fight with Europe’s support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the wading pool of Sweden, it seems that we still believe it’s good times and in the rest of Europe too, except for the shell protection against Russia – they have understood where we are heading and have been warning for a long time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But that doesn’t mean they are doing anything about it – Poland is poorly prepared and the Baltics are not really prepared at all. Their Maginot Line against Russia is a 50km drainage ditch, as we saw in photo evidence a month ago when they wanted to boast about the digging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before the Winter War in 1939, Finland sent out its conscript army into the forests and they had to clear shooting fields, fell trees, and move boulders until they had a somewhat decent defense line with wooden bunkers with earthen roofs. The Baltic states could have had a similar line in their eastern forests long ago, but they have been busy arguing about the thickness of bunker walls for three years and dug a ditch you can jump over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are currently in the most important months of the war – someone usually writes that so you already knew.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine is quite cheeky, the USA has turned, and Europe is not prepared – so it’s both bitter, sweet, and salty all at once here if you feel that the posts swing between cascading tears and Christmas joy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next week, I think you will have the privilege of reading three whole posts about U137 with some connection to the pro-Russian psyops that have been going on around it. I know the expectations are so high that you will have a hard time aimlessly browsing Netflix this weekend, but try to hold on \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It actually takes quite a while to put them together, I thought in my naivety that I could pull them out of memory but it didn’t work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the West has tried a bit of “force posture” against Russia, it has gone badly – Poland’s mechanized long winding snakes were just big FPV targets and no country can shoot down drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“All shall be shot down” turned into “we shoot down those who are a threat” while Europe borrows anti-drone capabilities from each other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Russia and Ukraine have learned, and what one can suspect that China has also taken to heart as they prepare for war, is the 3D war – 360 degrees threat to you and you are never safe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Constant movement and hidden – our reconnaissance and hunters are prepared but the rest of the defense forces not so much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our major technological platforms are mostly big targets, but at the same time, one must be able to hit the target oneself and for that, you need them too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A digital battlefield and a “kill-chain” in a few minutes is what is required, as well as competent unit leaders and officers at all levels – a weak link kills the whole chain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Archer and Arthur have proven to be the big winners of the last war – Ukraine worships that platform and they also seem robust and have lasted much longer than the Germans’ flagship self-propelled howitzers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Combat Vehicle 90 is what the Russians are terrified of, and our Strv 122 are among the best in the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, partly because we sent the best we have, but it is top-class equipment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The drone weapon is a new component that one needs both for oneself and to have a defense against – we lack both in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now it seems SAAB has come up with something exciting in anti-drone weapons though – Loke, and what is so beautiful about the system is that we immediately took lessons from Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cheap, many, and simple – you no longer need an expensive splinter-protected platform.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Loke is a small package mounted on soft vehicles but technologically advanced for hitting drones big and small.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the Swedish industrial miracle is at its best.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.saab.com\/newsroom\/stories\/2025\/march\/from-concept-to-impact—saab-and-the-swedish-air-force-deploy-loke<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poland has invested all its money in tanks and MLRS, Italy is building a bridge, and Spain is considering a new aircraft carrier. Krauss Maffei has the next generation of air defense artillery that looks like a polished Ferrari.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sweden is an interesting country and together with Finland and Denmark, we are small Nordic tough guys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US SOF says they are not ready.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And here is an American anti-drone weapon that is just a big target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Israel is working on its laser weapons, which of course is the next step, but they are lagging behind China because they are also big targets as we have seen from them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China seems to have smaller packages on soft vehicles and they showed many of them in their parade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you have a whole container of technology and two lasers on top, it will be hit, and then 1\/5 of your very expensive systems are shot down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you have two hundred on pickups, you can lose a hundred.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia has also understood this now with their Geran launch ramps – they are pickups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, everything is needed, tanks, armored vehicles, infantry, hunters, reconnaissance, air force, navy, but it must be adjusted for warfare in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, everyone now thinks that SUBMARINE is better than surface ships in our missile environment, and that is of course true, but when the small autonomous UV drones with shaped charges whiz around in the Baltic Sea and target anything that gives off a magnetic signal, then they will also be vulnerable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Already in 2022, we were speculating about this – I did say in the beginning that the drone weapon didn’t become the new black, but it never becomes a weapon that takes over everything, just a part of the arsenal. All old capabilities are still relevant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the most important thing is that soldiers and officers learn to use the whole toolbox and you can no longer just dig yourself into a hole and sit in it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now this is old news because already in the early 2000s, there was talk of the Iskander rain, which was a development of the “Scud rain” during the Iraq War, and now we have “Geran clouds” and robot rain instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The strategic missile war has not changed dramatically over the past 30 years except that there are more and cheaper platforms to deliver the warhead deep inside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Information gathering has also not changed much – we have had good satellites for a long time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But now every little rogue state can have a strategic long-range weapon and information gathering at a very low cost, so everyone is equally dangerous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1940, Holland surrendered after Germany bombed Rotterdam – in 2025, half of Europe would probably consider it after 3000 Geran\/month for a few months that they couldn’t shoot down, and after FPV drones and groups with manpads have taken out our air forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ISW warns of green men in Poland anyway.<\/p>\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The USA has now turned around at the last minute, they are not much better prepared than us, and they have China to deal with, so a qualified guess is that they realized they need Europe and in order to get us on board against China, they needed to give us a little more rope in the Ukraine war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because now the USA has announced that Ukraine will receive missiles and target designations from the USA – in words, it’s quite harsh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And then the USA has tried to rally the EU for tougher actions against China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/eu-china-donald-trump-russia-politics-ukraine-nato-tariffs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the G7 seems to want to take on China if you read what’s written.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/kyivindependent.com\/g7-vows-pressure-on-russian-oil<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

After 3 years with Biden and 9 months with Trump, there was reason to speculate whether the USA was dreaming back to a cold war with Europe under Russia’s boot, where they sold security to us at five times the price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Or a “smash-and-grab” of Europe like in 2008.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But somewhere along the line, if those plans existed, they have been shelved, and everything has unfolded in sequence –<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Trump’s trade war is almost crashing the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-China joins Russia on May 9, 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Ukraine retreats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-China has built up Russia’s arms industry and is showing it openly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-China is being somewhat rude to the EU when we go there on a reconciliation trip.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-China has a meeting in Shanghai with almost 30 countries participating, openly discussing a “swift-killer” and declaring that the dollar’s life is now over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Ukraine initiates full asymmetric warfare and suddenly becomes ten shades of tough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-The USA announces that China intends to attack Taiwan in a few years and positions forces towards Venezuela.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-The USA first supports Ukraine in reclaiming its land, then they will receive missiles, and finally target designations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-The USA is trying to rally the EU against China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-The G7 is set to punish all those who buy Russian oil with harsh sanctions, and everyone knows that China buys a lot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is where we are now, but a lot has happened in 2025, more than during an entire war actually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now Europe just needs to come to terms with the fact that we are at war with Russia and that China needs to learn a lesson so we can keep pace with the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After that, there is a looming risk that the USA and Europe will go overboard completely, but we are not there yet \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Someone with tears in their eyes shouts, “China doesn’t deserve this.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China has three underwater cables between Sweden and Finland that they are eavesdropping on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And Norway has arrested 8 Chinese for drone overflights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It is now close that we can start looking ahead, the war will be decided in the year 2025, as you know if you have read the posts, and you also know that Ukraine has offensive reserves. This does not mean that the final shot has been fired, but that the war has been decided and we can begin the journey towards the collapse of the Russian puppet, and ultimately the plundering of China by financial vultures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia also has offensive reserves, and everything is relative, but when the USA changes course, it usually makes a difference in the willingness to die for the two warring parties – they have a unique ability to project strength and motivation for those who choose them, and all the negativity for the opponent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two Flamingos are produced per day now in Ukraine – they have been used in combat and can come with bunker-penetrating warheads. That’s 365X2 targets that will receive 1000kg of explosives over them in a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine not only has Flamingo, but also has Neptune for land targets, as well as all the hybrids between drones and missiles, and direct drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have reported figures such as 2500 long-range, 10,000 long-distance drones, and several million FPV drones in annual production figures. Probably the first and second categories are currently underestimated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine can almost be sure that they will soon be full members of the EU, and Zelensky has promised to resign when there is peace. They really have something to fight for, and the entire West stands behind them, no more backstabbing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have also figured out why Trump was so friendly towards Lukashenko – we are trying to win over Belarus to our side. Lukashenko is not supposed to run for re-election, so the stage is set for them to come to us if there is unrest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here David D has found some new liberation movement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

When Azerbaijan chose Ukraine, we wrote that something big was on the way because it is a small country of 10 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We also know that Ukraine has good contact with at least 6 liberation fronts, all the oblasts around them, and the autonomous republics that want freedom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A safe bet is that Ukraine is now setting up the pieces to bring down the country of Russia – it’s on its way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe, and especially the USA, have previously refused this, but in August 2025, that changed, and it is clear that the USA has not only loosened the leash but completely removed it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Something we said back in 2022 was that the intensity of this war was\/is going to be so high that Western arms factories will be red-hot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now it took Europe three years, which was more than sluggish, but when the countries are armed to the teeth and have also had a high-intensity war, it usually leads to a very long peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is another side to this coin, and that is that when countries arm themselves to this extent, they usually choose war because they have not yet understood how painful it is, often after longer periods of peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But for Europe, this will probably be our intense phase, and then when Belarus also joins us, we will have a manageable eastern border from northern Finland to the southeast corner of Ukraine, which we will mine again, and not let a single Russian cross over \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, the USA and China might choose war, and then they will have to fight it out in Asia, China cannot invade the USA, and the USA cannot invade China, so after 3-4 years, they will get tired.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe will be persuaded with the usual Trump threats to send our fleets and aircraft to Asia, but it won’t be noticeable for us other than watching it on TV and having to read Johan No.1 for another five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two important things will happen for us –<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-some country or countries must get the “black Peter” in the upcoming economic downturn, and a safe bet is Russia. Then maybe China too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eventually, they won’t be able to handle the pressure, and everything will collapse to the delight of Western finance, as this century’s great smash-and-grab heist can begin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia and even China have earned it, even if our finance has no noble intentions at all, but that is probably a somewhat unstoppable natural law.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-after a global conflict, there will be a very long period of prosperity, the countries that have not been destroyed and have industry will come out on top.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Translate that to Africa, and the European industry sniffing the morning air is my tip.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It will be a straight road with long growth and a downturn every 10-15 years that is manageable, so having an Avanza account will just be about jumping on those with the most growth, and there is no risk of downside.<\/p>\n\n\n

Ukraine has fought a whole world war for us and as a thank you they are allowed to enter the EU and we give them some freedom with neighboring Russian oblasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Everyone is happy except Russia, which now has ten fewer countries as threats, and China, which could almost smell world domination but had greatly underestimated the determination of the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only reason our victory has not brought us consequences is because Ukraine has absorbed all the consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s not fair, it’s not just, and it was a huge risk to bet everything on Ukraine being able to hold out – but since Ukraine held out, we made it through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then China stops Ericsson and Nokia from doing free business in China – game on, poodles, no one messes with a Nokia phone and survives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/7d08731c-189e-4835-8cfa-048fe68611bd<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Substack – there is still a chance to become subscribers and it would be valuable to me if you want to become paying ones. All content is posted freely to everyone but it still takes a lot of time to put together, costs 80 SEK per month, and then you skip a meal at McDonald’s so it’s also healthy – Johan No.1 will make you healthier too \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Continued appreciation for the site johanno1.se is always gratefully received and there is a QR code for this purpose that you absolutely must not miss as we have costs and there is also a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations that we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you liked the post – please share it in your channels and most importantly, please share the English version with people you think might appreciate posts and comments they haven’t been able to read before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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