{"id":3066,"date":"2025-10-17T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-17T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/when-the-war-comes-part-2-october-17-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-10-18T08:30:56","modified_gmt":"2025-10-18T06:30:56","slug":"when-the-war-comes-part-2-october-17-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/when-the-war-comes-part-2-october-17-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"When the War Comes Part 2, October 17, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This post follows “When War Comes” and I couldn’t find a suitable place in the post to lock it – of course, I still want to encourage everyone to subscribe to Substack if you like and read the posts because it guarantees a continued sense of liking in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There will be no shortage of topics to write about, I don’t think everyone is starting to understand that now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout 2025, we have been writing about the Russian offensive strategic reserve that Putin has prepared and has planned that from Zapad 25 until the summer of 2026, there is a high risk of an attack on Europe in some form.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The day before yesterday, I casually surfed onto “the other blog” and it seems to be widely accepted now that Russia has an offensive strategic reserve – the post and the thread talked in terms of “when the war comes” not -if- which is very good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the debate, there is no shortage of “Russia will never dare”, “then we will run over Russia in three days”, “Europe has a plan we don’t understand yet” and all other heroic statements that land on defeatist texts like mine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That has been tried before, for example in 1939 and 1940.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For a long time, it was the Baltics, and us, who advocated the line about the Russian strategic reserve, and I rhetorically asked, “Will the experts and the knowledgeable change their prediction about war not until 2028-2029 when they understand that Russia already has an offensive strategic reserve today,” and this past week, it seems that the highly paid professionals have done just that – changed their minds without the slightest hint of shame.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you are defensive, it’s good to be ahead on the curve, not 2-3 years off because then it will be like Poland in 1939.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So for those of you who read, you will actually get all the truths about half a year before it becomes mainstream, and the chance to corner the lunchroom Jesus does not come so often, take advantage of it, that’s my tip of the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This spring, Europe pushed hard for a ceasefire in Ukraine, declaring it the great strategic mistake of this century, and compared it to Chamberlain’s debacle that is how history remembered him – as a paper-waving coward with a mustache.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For some reason, it was Putin who flatly refused, otherwise it would have gone through. Russia could then have eaten up Ukraine from within and turned towards us. Because if you remove the external threat to Ukraine that acts as a unifying force, they will be plunged into power struggles and a deserting defense force within half a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, that was not what we were supposed to discuss, but instead how the professionals and experts in the West have changed since this spring – the half-life of the professionals’ analyses has been more than short this time, and that’s because the focus is now on us, something they hadn’t even considered because it wouldn’t be possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One begins to suspect that they either have no clue at all or are afraid to raise tough questions – I don’t know which is worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, we had Carsten Breuer’s infamous prediction that Russia cannot attack NATO before 2028-2029 at the earliest, which came in June and everyone immediately took as truth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/articles\/c62v63gl8rvo<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I absolutely screamed and posted my About-Face on Zapad 25 to show that the threat is NOW and not in three years. Russia has enough in its offensive reserve to attack the Baltics now if they want.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In October 2025, Mark Rutte talks about how China will pressure Russia to attack NATO “when the time comes.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And the German spy chief patiently explains to the cowards that Russia can attack today if they want.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So these are the top brass we have in the West who are crafting our defense strategies and have sky-high salaries to protect us. We in the thread have been more right – because they have now changed their minds and abandoned Carsten Breuer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Think about that \ud83d\ude36<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lunchroom Jesus won’t recover from that blow, I promise you, when he gets entangled in Carsten’s prophecies, it will be character assassination in the lunchroom where even the offices furthest away will hear the blow and look up in surprise from their cubicles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you get the chance, vote for me as an Air Force colonel in the municipal election so I can also get a sky-high salary for putting together analyses that are not the worst at least since the pros have now changed sides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then there’s the constant dissonance that doesn’t seem to upset anyone at all because absolutely NO ONE except me wants to talk about this, and I don’t understand it – Europe and the USA have a commitment to the Baltics where mechanized brigades are to be transported to the area in case of increased threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So we are supposed to be in place before Russia attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The defense plans are public information and very clear, but no brigades are in the Baltics as they are supposed to be according to the defense plan (summarized on Google AI, of course).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The threat level is now so high that the German spy chief couldn’t keep quiet any longer and issued the sharpest warning of the year, for a career spy, it’s probably easiest to keep quiet, and if he has spoken out, it means something.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So the question is, why aren’t the brigades in the Baltics, and unfortunately, I think the answer is that we don’t want to lose them – we are cowards, and politically many leaders are on shaky ground. A completely overrun mechanized brigade would lead to a government crisis of the century on the same day in the affected countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia’s DNA is rigged so that if they sense a weakness, they can’t control themselves. In the Baltics, three countries are completely undefended, according to them, and everyone hopes fervently that the Russian DNA strand has completely missed this obvious prey five meters away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now that Russia has tested Article 5 and knows that it is flexible, they also know that they will have to start, we will be reactive, and we will find reasons not to invoke Article 5 as much as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Supreme Commander’s club – our heavy attack during the Cold War that could be either reactive or proactive, and could blow away the naval infantry already in the shipping ports when they boarded their Ropuchas if we wanted. That’s where you can talk about runaway consequences when they sped two meters above the water surface so they wouldn’t show up on radar with a heavy missile under each wing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are defending Gotland now – Poland placed some permanent robot equipment there during the latest exercise, and Finland has finished digging its pits and installed home-burning equipment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poland is moving around mechanized brigades (which are big targets) along the Belarus border, but in the Baltics, there is virtually nothing – and that’s why the Baltics are the tip of the spear for the next Russian land grab attempt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The likelihood of “little green men” in the Baltics is 1, the likelihood of an invasion of the Baltics must not be ignored, and the risk of a first strike against Europe – our time’s Pearl Harbor, we must plan against.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Only a strong “force posture” will act as a deterrent to Russia, and that means a very strong statement, like a resounding slap in the face where Putin doubles over and then quietly starts crying as he turns away humiliated – something like that \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n\n\n

We do none of this and half of those who read feel that Johan No.1 exaggerates for Swish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I believe that Europe’s leaders think just like those who comment on the posts that “Russia cannot be so stupid.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then they have not understood that Russia has a role in this upcoming global conflict of our time, and that is to unlock Europe for the major power struggle (global third world war) between the USA and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine would have been overrun by 2022, more countries in Europe would have already fallen politically, and the Baltics would have been conquered – but the damn Russians got stuck in Ukraine, which had the audacity to start defending itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That tells you one more thing, and now you have to keep up because not even the experts have reflected on this yet – China is already ready because it is Russia that is behind schedule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Did that hit you like a bolt?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The analysis that China is not ready until two years from now, as the USA just announced, is wrong. If they have built the floating harbors, everything else is prepared; you don’t start by building Mulberrys because they are impossible to hide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The car ferries are also built, a whole bunch of them, and are moored in the ports along the Chinese coast facing Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If China has demonstrably built up Russia’s entire arms industry so that RU can build 75,000 Gerans\/year, 1,000 robots\/year, 1,500 tanks\/year, and so on – what the hell do you think they have done with their own arms industry \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have seen films of factories where they can churn out 1,000 robots a month and films of containers with 700 drones, and coordinated autonomous clouds with AI drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The comments when I posted them have been that China lies for likes, “that’s not true” – and there were many such comments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Therefore, China is also ready to kick off our time’s global conflict, and the attack on Taiwan will be full asymmetric warfare – the big question is when, and my suggestion is to look at the weather, when it is favorable – it is starting now and is good until March or April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There will be container ships filled with drones in the ports of Taiwan and SOF infiltrated beforehand so that they, along with spies, saboteurs, and defectors, can deliver a hard first strike at dusk, just as the Soviets intended to do against us in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paratroopers will pour out of the passenger planes landing on that fateful morning instead of holidaymakers, possibly in civilian clothes, I haven’t decided yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What has been added are the drone clouds and robot rains, which, when it comes to Taiwan, have a limited number of targets in a confined area to hit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, Taiwan has dug in and reinforced its defenses, and they also have drones and robots, but a rain of thermobaric and bunker-buster robots will cause damage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You don’t need to ask if China has thermobaric and cluster bombs – of course they do, only we in Europe and the USA were persuaded to scrap ours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then China will land around the entire Taiwan; the eastern side with fishing boats, container ships, and submarines, and on the western side from the mainland, there will be a mosaic of warships, landing ships, amphibious vehicles, small boats, car ferries, air landings, paratroopers, and helicopters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fastest will take an hour to cross, the slower ones 4-8 hours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like a Dunkirk but in reverse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A silver medal would be to at least succeed in capturing Penghu, and Xi Jinping is probably actually satisfied if they can avoid a proper Dunkirk in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If they overrun Taiwan, it will be an ethnic cleansing like you haven’t seen in a long time – then you will understand what a warlike Chinese is made of.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just as for Russia, the door to plunder and ravage the Baltics will close in about a year, China faces the same problem because Ukraine has started a drone collaboration with Taiwan, and the advantage in the war in 2025 is now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After that, only the quantity matters, and the West is on the upswing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1939, Poland knew that Germany would attack them but thought it would happen in 1942 – the senior officer who advocated that line has been suspected by historians of being a German defector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poland had an ambitious reform of the military and a significantly better tank than Germany, but in too few numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then it went as it did, and Germany pushed through defense lines with mines, wide rivers with defenses behind, and a defense that in numbers was as strong as Germany’s – yes, they had some help from the damn Russians who stabbed the Poles in the back and attacked from the east, but there was no shortage of natural terrain obstacles and well-prepared defensive positions, fully manned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1938, Churchill could not hold back any longer and said to Neville Chamberlain, “You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor and (now) you will have war.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what has happened recently besides those with the most insight openly saying that China and Russia will start a war, and that it could start today already?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia has made a legal change so that their reserve personnel can be called up at any time and even fight outside of Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/united24media.com\/latest-news\/russia-drafts-law-allowing-putin-to-mobilize-reservists-in-peacetime-12455<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I remember that the reserve was 2.5 million before the war, and I don’t know what it could be today – a not insignificant number have probably signed up for the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, I know that Russia’s conscription is around 150,000 in two rounds per year, so a total of 300,000 per year undergoing conscription.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Something Russia has after nearly four years of war in Ukraine is the infrastructure to start setting up composite units, enough experienced instructors, and experience of the war in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have also recently started preventing mobilizable people from leaving the country; they apparently learned from 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/tvpworld.com\/89402536\/thousands-blocked-from-leaving-russia-amid-autumn-draft<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It seems that the Belarusian armed forces have gone into a staff alert status.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Zelensky warns the “directly affected” that RU will now build up in Belarus – read into that what you will, but by “directly affected,” he probably doesn’t mean himself, at least that’s what I think?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And Zelensky has issued a stern warning – if Russia starts mobilizing, it is to attack you in Europe, start doing squats now.
https:\/\/kyivindependent.com\/europe-faces-significant-risk-of-big-war-if-putin-orders-mobilization-zelensky-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I am now quite convinced that the reason for Ukraine’s newfound vigor is that they know that Europe will soon be drawn into the war – that’s good for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That was also the reason for the US policy shift; they realized that it was futile to get Russia on their side against China – a major strategic mistake that will cost many lives. The USA is not as all-knowing as everyone seems to think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because something we have been saying in the thread since 2022 is that a quick victory for Ukraine leading to a Russian revolution 2.0 could stamp out our time’s global conflict and China would crawl back into its shell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Until August 2025, the USA and Europe have pursued an almost suicidal foreign policy that has brought us to this point, and the only reason it has not ended in horror is the Ukrainian marksmanship that refuses to give up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To me, it looks like Ukraine is engaging in a delaying tactic to buy time \u2013 the question is, time for what, and a global conflict seems to be a qualified guess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Things are not going well at the fronts at all \u2013 I will summarize it next week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then maybe UA’s asymmetric warfare will succeed, but if RU manages to go to war with Europe and mobilize, it probably won’t be able to defeat Russia, as then there will be more noise for a while because Russia will be at war with NATO and the country will unite around that rather than killing their fellow countrymen in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We wrote about it a while ago \u2013 who will be the first to act.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will it be Ukraine’s asymmetric warfare or will Russia and then China escalate \u2013 right now it looks like escalation will happen first.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This post follows “When War Comes” and I couldn’t find a suitable place in the post to lock it – 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