{"id":3095,"date":"2025-10-20T07:34:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-20T05:34:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/the-war-in-ukraine-2025-10-20\/"},"modified":"2025-10-20T23:15:12","modified_gmt":"2025-10-20T21:15:12","slug":"the-war-in-ukraine-2025-10-20","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/the-war-in-ukraine-2025-10-20\/","title":{"rendered":"The war in Ukraine 2025-10-20"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Will Russia attack NATO in the near future?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

More and more people, like Carlo Masala, believe that Russia will soon attack a NATO country to prove that Article 5 will not hold.
“An expert warns that Putin could launch an attack on the Baltics as soon as in three years, writes Newsweek.
\u2013 It will be the end of NATO, NATO will collapse,” says political scientist Carlo Masala about the doomsday scenario surrounding the defense alliance’s reaction to the Russian attack.”
https:\/\/www.expressen.se\/nyheter\/varlden\/oron-putin-gar-till-ny-attack-om-tre-ar\/<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I disagree.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I believe that the likelihood of Russia attacking NATO before the war in Ukraine is resolved is minimal. However, it could happen afterwards depending on how the war concludes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I’m not saying that Russia can’t do it, they don’t care much about losses and they don’t always seem to act rationally. They could have attacked in 2022 when they thought they were completely superior and would defeat Ukraine in a few weeks. At the same time, they are not completely foolish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even though they are trying to build up reserves, I don’t think they have enough resources left to actually dare to attack. I am completely convinced that it’s a matter of pure propaganda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They are trying in every way they can to appear strong and threatening to make Europe feel insecure and invest in their own defense, thereby undermining support for Ukraine. Figures showed that deliveries to Ukraine decreased by 40-50% in the past months, Putin is probably satisfied with his psychological warfare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We still seem to have difficulty understanding that the best way to defeat Russia is to give Ukraine everything they need. If we first arm all European countries, Ukraine will be forced to give up and Putin will get what he wants. He simply plays us, a few drones here, little green men there, and we obediently fall for it and start talking about drone walls around the EU, when the drone wall should be at Ukraine’s border with Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But back to the possibility of Russia attacking a NATO country.
Russia has somewhere between 400-800,000 soldiers (depending on who you listen to) in Ukraine, many of whom are now the most experienced in their army. Yet they advance (slower than a snail).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is only when he can release them (either through peace or victory over Ukraine) that he can seriously threaten NATO. Before that, an attack would have failed sooner or later and only put Russia in an even worse situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spreading the idea that NATO will betray and act against another NATO country as they have acted against Ukraine (i.e., only providing half-hearted support without sending their own troops, etc.) is not far from serving Putin’s interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Making the enemy doubt themselves and their own capabilities and their partners’ loyalty, you have already won the first battle before the fight even begins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I’m not saying that Europe shouldn’t prepare for war with Russia or that we shouldn’t arm ourselves. Of course, we should, but Ukraine should first and foremost receive all the resources they need. That is the best for both Ukraine and the rest of Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Russian losses:<\/p>\n\n\n\n