{"id":3144,"date":"2025-10-24T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-24T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-october-24-2024\/"},"modified":"2025-10-25T09:10:19","modified_gmt":"2025-10-25T07:10:19","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-october-24-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-october-24-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update October 24, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Today there will be an overview of the fronts, which unfortunately is not very cheerful reading at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, Ukraine has a strategic offensive reserve, but if they go for another spring offensive in 2023, the war is probably over. The offensive can only achieve tactical victory on the battlefield, so it must be combined with other elements in the asymmetric warfare that reinforce the effect. Above all, it is the end of October and we haven&#8217;t seen it yet, but preparations for the Azov thrust are in full swing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are helicopters and amphibious combat vehicles along with night fighting equipment and mine clearers, so it&#8217;s easy to see that Ukraine has some clever plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine has received a huge amount of heavy vehicles delivered in the past six months, and surely many other things as well, but nothing is being flaunted anymore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The cleansing of Dobrophilia has been going on for at least a month, so it&#8217;s not a direct Kharkiv offensive \u2013 they are wearing each other down, and eventually a few hundred of those who have survived will surrender.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia is grinding on in Ukraine with its inferior equipment and has set aside a strategic offensive reserve equipped with the latest they have manufactured, some of which has been smuggled in east of the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia is currently fighting against perhaps the most effective defense force in the world in Ukraine, and they are advancing. UA has +1 million in the defense forces and as much artillery, robots, and armored vehicles as all of Europe combined &#8211; and a drone weapon and digital battlefield that Europe doesn&#8217;t have at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What you see at the fronts is adapted to the warfare of 2025, which only Ukraine, Russia, and China master today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is a thin line of infantry in defense and a thin line of infantry attacking, and then there is the digital battlefield glued to the screens to find the gaps and place an FAB in them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When RU thinks they can achieve a breakthrough, they now attack with mechanized units, and when UA must, they counterattack with mechs \u2013 both sides lose a lot of equipment in these battles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia can continue like this over time, everyone with insight says so; they are not in dire straits economically, they are not dry yet, and they have enough equipment and soldiers to continue as they are now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The wild card is if the opposition gets a feeling or if someone manages to incite the masses in Russia \u2013 Ukraine is trying both, and it feels hopeful when the youth in St. Petersburg have started protesting against the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Putin probably glanced nervously towards Nepal the other month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>RU tactics are working, aren&#8217;t they?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Army chiefs are achieving attack goals that are embarrassingly low, but the war rolls on Russian style \u2013 drones and robots continue to come off the production lines, and indirect efforts are increasing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine is also shooting down fewer and fewer robots and drones now, but the wheel keeps turning, and soon autonomous AI interceptor drones will be a reality on the LV screen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What happens when AI interceptor drones are at the fronts \u2013 will we then revert to traditional warfare because the drone weapon has been completely neutralized?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then you might remember my discussion about the main defense line that goes beyond what Putin wants to conquer, and that Ukraine has been pragmatic \u2013 of course, this is the line UA is slowly retreating to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But then what?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think it&#8217;s time to call a spade a spade \u2013 Russia couldn&#8217;t handle its digital battlefield at all as recently as 2024, and now it&#8217;s working perfectly. We saw a HIMARS hit by a heavy robot a month ago, for example \u2013 not many minutes between target detection and engagement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China&#8217;s digital battlefield has eliminated the advantage Ukraine had that could have won the war for them if Trump hadn&#8217;t insisted on peace since the fall of 2024, and Biden hadn&#8217;t thrown a spanner in the works \u2013 it&#8217;s China that has built and is now manning this, China is driving the digital battlefield and an effective kill chain for Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China has also built up Russia&#8217;s drone and robot production and continuously improves both robots and drones for Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most recently, Ukraine shot down 6% of the newer robots, which now have countermeasures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Same with the drones, Geran 3 is tricky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China has provided autonomous AI drones at the fronts that are easy for the Russians to handle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is the reason Ukraine is retreating \u2013 China has nullified their advantage as a potential war winner and given the Russians that advantage instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kupiansk is looking worse and worse, and the bulge east of Oskil is on the verge of falling. The situation in the city is absolutely horrific, and RU is infiltrating their sabotage groups in civilian clothes WITHOUT weapons so UA won&#8217;t dare to fight them, and then they pick up arms once inside the city. The defense is 360 defense 24\/7 and extremely taxing, if I had to guess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!kr69!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcdac1ce4-4873-4678-b9a7-97131bf36658_812x715.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!kr69!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcdac1ce4-4873-4678-b9a7-97131bf36658_812x715.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:667px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>At Lyman, RU is advancing, and the same there, it will fall quite soon within months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!zdKC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa81ac6ac-ac15-4877-a67a-0179cc067785_1098x758.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!zdKC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa81ac6ac-ac15-4877-a67a-0179cc067785_1098x758.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:676px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This makes the area in the &#8220;middle&#8221; in northern Luhansk unsustainable over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!EXMt!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e8da0cb-f933-4a23-879a-b60118bf7476_926x736.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!EXMt!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e8da0cb-f933-4a23-879a-b60118bf7476_926x736.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:679px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>At Siversk, RU is soon within grenade throwing distance to Slovyansk, so there will also be movement there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!XTNx!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdb569ad-4338-4e1c-a5d4-f540580a3a1e_1090x752.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!XTNx!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdb569ad-4338-4e1c-a5d4-f540580a3a1e_1090x752.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:681px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In the area northwest of Kupiansk, there is also some movement, it has long been believed that the area would fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sITY!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e34bb21-6e10-486a-be8a-474e94a4bdd2_872x752.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!sITY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e34bb21-6e10-486a-be8a-474e94a4bdd2_872x752.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:681px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>At Kostianytivka, RU is approaching and sniffing around the city with the first sabotage groups inside the city. It was supposed to have a ring of very well-prepared defenses and be practically impregnable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!TPrl!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F030c14dc-741f-44f7-890a-20cffe2d3bd8_877x738.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!TPrl!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F030c14dc-741f-44f7-890a-20cffe2d3bd8_877x738.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:692px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In Pokrovsk, RU is in the center and attacking Myrnohrad. Gregg has been quiet, and he used to always talk about the battalion there that was okay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We wrote a few weeks ago that the delaying battle out of the city had started, and I think it still holds?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!5iN1!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0d9eff24-050e-48cb-9651-781d932687b3_1062x812.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!5iN1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0d9eff24-050e-48cb-9651-781d932687b3_1062x812.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:748px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>At Pokrovske, RU is also advancing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!Z0zK!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3079188-79a0-4699-9c11-d7195eebbd6b_901x620.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!Z0zK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3079188-79a0-4699-9c11-d7195eebbd6b_901x620.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:748px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Not to mention Stepnohirsk, where they have now come behind the southern front \u2013 how the hell they managed to cross those terrain obstacles with experienced Ukrainian elite forces in the area is something for historians to figure out, because I don&#8217;t understand it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>Risking Ukraine&#8217;s collapse is suicidal because then we will have the war on us without Ukraine&#8217;s help.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, Ukraine is fighting against China and Russia &#8211; the stories from the frontlines are absolutely dreadful, and the counterattacks with Azov and 12th NG extinguishing fires are taking losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia has been targeting the power supply this fall, and their robots are hitting more accurately as China provides target data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What do you think Europe&#8217;s game plan is &#8211; wait and see how it goes?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump&#8217;s nonsense about a ceasefire was just that because Russia does not want a ceasefire &#8211; they want to continue fighting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One must not fixate on square meters because this is a &#8220;war of attrition&#8221; and right now UA is retreating everywhere, shooting down fewer and fewer robots and drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pokrovsk, Stepnohirsk, Kostintanyivka, Siversk, and northern Luhansk are all small forts that have been defended, and there is defense behind them, but they need to be manned and mined, right now they are just holes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>RU is holding back its mech and UA is holding back its mech &#8211; upon breakthrough, they are thrown in directly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As mentioned, the most crucial months of the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The USA seems to want to take on China but doesn&#8217;t care about Ukraine. If Europe doesn&#8217;t start making tough decisions soon, this could spiral out of control for us, and then Ukraine will have given us nearly 4 years to prepare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In my previous post, you could read about all the actions we can take before full-blown war, and we are hardly taking any right now &#8211; it&#8217;s possible to significantly escalate tensions without risking interstate war, but we are really dragging our feet on this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then we have the next harsh truth &#8211; China has now provided Russia with top-class drone weapons, robot weapons, and digital battlefield, so if the damn Russians decide to come after us, we must have countermeasures against that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We don&#8217;t have that today, and both Russia and China have gained experiences from this war that we are lagging behind in. Their production lines of functional weapons are running at full capacity, and they have work experience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, WV had to halt car production because they don&#8217;t have any microchips, when do you think military production will start facing issues for us?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The war is slowly heading towards us, and if we are poorly prepared, we are. And if we make the mistake of not believing that gangs have manpads at the airbases and Russia has a swarm of drones on ships around Europe, we will also be recipients of that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have said that by the summer of 2026, the door will be closed for Russia to attack into the Baltics based on the fact that by then we SHOULD be prepared &#8211; minefields, bunkers, brigades, and anti-drone weapons should be in place, so the threshold for attacking into the forests in eastern Baltics should be like Finland&#8217;s, roughly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If we are not prepared, the timeline will be extended, and if Ukraine gets tired of the war, it becomes urgent &#8211; right now it doesn&#8217;t seem so, they are pushing on against the wind without flinching, as they have done for almost four years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today there will be an overview of the fronts, which unfortunately is not very cheerful reading at all. Yes, Ukraine [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3144","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ukraine daily update October 24, 2024 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-october-24-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ukraine daily update October 24, 2024 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Today there will be an overview of the fronts, which unfortunately is not very cheerful reading at all. 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