{"id":3214,"date":"2025-10-31T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-31T06:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-october-31-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-11-02T06:30:04","modified_gmt":"2025-11-02T05:30:04","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-october-31-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-october-31-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update October 31, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I interpreted the Trump-Xi meeting as both being quite polite, Xi’s speech was polished and cautious. Trump kept himself in check.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unfortunately, it turned out to be a somewhat good deal for both, and no one lost face, so the war in Ukraine is unlikely to end anytime soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What didn’t come up even though the tariffs decreased a few percent?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China’s dollar-killer with trade outside the dollar, Taiwan, Venezuela, nuclear tests, and Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Everyone can interpret this as they wish – I interpret that they avoided the difficult questions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If there hadn’t been a full-blown war in Ukraine, it might have been hailed as a big step towards continued peace, but now we don’t have peace for the children in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unfortunately, voices advocating for a ceasefire in Ukraine are starting to be heard now; it won’t be long before those who want to provoke Russia and China will be branded as warmongers and sinophobes (they’re really struggling to make that stick, nobody really cares \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposal on the table now is simplified to a ceasefire with frozen fronts, and then we start talking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My suggestion for what will follow a ceasefire is this –<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Ukraine, the air is coming out of the country because it was the war that held together all those pulling in different directions. Russia has meticulously prepared for this and will invest everything in creating as much chaos as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Russia feels it can benefit from it, they will attack again – how soon or how long it will be, not even Russia knows right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe will take the ceasefire as an opportunity to claim peace in our time and stop preparing for war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since a financial crash\/recession is around the corner, Europe will be preoccupied with that in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far, it’s Putin who has flatly refused a ceasefire, and I have been doubtful whether Ukraine wanted it or just played along with Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As things stand at the fronts, it looks like Ukraine would benefit from a ceasefire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If anyone believes that this peace plan will lead to peace in our time, raise your hand, and then leave the room.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I believe that if that happens, we will discover that it became our 1938 moment, unfortunately. The stronger Russia and China become, the more inclined Europe will be to sacrifice the weak peripheral countries that Russia and China want to devour first.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Everywhere, it’s a safe bet that they will once again be subordinated to the Empire, I feel a bit sorry for Azerbaijan, which has just chosen a side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taiwan will probably be sacrificed for peace in our time, provided that China PROMISES on its honor and conscience that it will be a peaceful absorption of the country – Europe will be absolutely firm that it happens peacefully.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our leaders chant “peace in our time” and generously sacrifice other countries on the Chinese and Russian altar, just like Dutchbat 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia will invest all the subversive activities they can in the Baltics, up to small green men with dissatisfied rebel movements, and any attempt by Europe to protest will lead to loud protests from China that Europe wants to plunge the world into war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think all players can see that Europe is in a stranglehold because China has key components and raw materials we need for our production that they can cut off – and in that case, completely wipe out sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then, because our leaders don’t speak with one voice, they have secretly sent their lackeys to China with promises of eternal loyalty, so the EU is de facto divided even beyond Orban and Fico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The best outcome I could imagine is that we enter a new Cold War and that the two sides arm themselves like madmen with some proxy wars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Could the UA war have been so intense that the world situation was downgraded to a Cold War?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then let the Vikings in Scandinavia take in the Balts, Poland, and Ukraine, and we’ll form a tough defense alliance and cooperate on all the issues we can agree on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UK has steadily lost relevance since Russia orchestrated Brexit, where they managed to trigger the migration crisis the year before to strengthen the no side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, Starmer is spinning himself into such a mess of what I barely know what, so he’s well on his way out – thought crimes are taken more seriously than serious crimes where the clearance rate is about the same as ours, 6% for grand theft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Labor is fed up with him, and there is a breakaway group with Jeremy Corbyn, who is far-left and pro-Russian.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Macron continues to have problems with his wife, and in Germany, they are beginning to understand the consequences of shutting down all their planned electricity production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spain has approached China, but not before they demolished many dams along all their rivers to save the climate, so now larger cities are flooding regularly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I believe a small Viking alliance would go a long way, and we actually have a consensus on quite a few issues – we might as well start forming a homogeneous group in the EU that agrees on how to vote on different issues, for example?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We’ll take responsibility for the Baltics – send troops in Viking helmets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don’t get the impression that Pokrovsk is going as well as UA is trying to suggest; Gregg also sounded strange the other day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If GUR special forces are sent into Pokrovsk, it’s to try to keep a retreat route open for the units located in Myrnohrad and southeast of there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those units are supposed to sneak around and cut the throats of brigade staff, not fight in a drone-saturated town where the survival rate is about the same as for Swedish mechanized infantry under attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My best guess is that UA is in the process of retreating from the Pokrovsk area and will then go on the defensive north of the town.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In Kupiansk, we know that UA is in the process of retreating from the area east of the town of Kupiansk because RU has made too much progress there. The red circle is the last bridge over the Oskil River that UA has access to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Lyman is also not going well – RU is advancing and approaching the town.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Someone screams that the maps are lying, but Project Owl is supposed to be legitimate and has been considered to lean a bit too much towards being pro-Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Right now, UA is keeping quiet so that they can manage to withdraw all units, most likely, and then we can forget about it and move on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

600 FAB were dropped over the Pokrovsk area in a week, 600…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I grew up with a view of Europe as strong, and when we formed the EU – a global player to be reckoned with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We were even a humanitarian superpower with all that it entailed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1939 and 1940 were supposed to be a parenthesis – next time, we’ll bulldoze away the Russian bastards (yes, back then it was the Germans, now it’s the Russians) even before they get organized.<\/p>\n\n\n

In and of itself, one should have understood where it was heading already during the Yugoslav Wars, where our biggest effort was to gather 11,000 civilians and hand them over to the Serbs in Srebrenica for some festive murder and torture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If I had been the Dutch battalion commander, I would have ordered everyone to fight to the last bullet, but they didn’t, even though that was the order they received – they chose life for themselves at the expense of 11,000 raped, tortured, and murdered women, children, elderly, and men. How the soldiers could live with themselves after that, I do not know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is how Wikipedia summarizes it, anyway:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u2026 Karremans failed to follow the orders of General Gobilliard who requested him in writing to defend the enclave.\u201d[2]<\/sup><\/a> \u201cKarremans requested NATO air support to defend the enclave, \u2026 but they were first denied, then delayed, and later granted by UN General\u201d Bernard Janvier<\/a>[3]<\/sup><\/a> \u201cHowever, the NATO air support arrived was too little and too late to stop the Serbian advance.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then Karremans stood and toasted with the war criminal Mladic, admittedly under duress, but I would rather have fallen on my sword than done that. If there had been a photo, it would have been a battered and bloody Johan No.1 raising the glass and asking for a refill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Upon returning to the Netherlands, Karremans was promoted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It all ended with the USA having to bomb Serbia because the EU and Europe simply couldn’t handle the problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And now the veterans from this not so pretty mission are trying to sue the government for compensation for mental suffering or whatever it may be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

11,000 was a rough estimate, and it seems to be significantly underestimated because there were 40,000 in the area when it was surrounded, 15,000 tried to flee where “many were captured,” and the Dutch saw the remaining 25,000 being loaded onto buses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the courts began discussing the issue, eventually, 3 Muslims could directly be linked to having died due to the actions of Dutchbat 3 – perhaps “overpaid idiots” is an understatement here?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This one was good from a survivor:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/ten-years-after-the-dutch-must-face-the-truth-over-srebrenica<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This one is also interesting \u2013 a peacekeeping force that failed to understand that it was full-on war and that they might have to enforce peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn 1995, Mr. Peperkamp was one of 55 Dutch troops taken hostage at gunpoint and held for three days by the Serbs. \u201cI was very frightened,\u201d he recalled. \u201cI had just turned 18, and it was my first time out of the Netherlands. One minute we were there with our UN badges, thinking we were untouchable \u2013 the next I had guns pushed in my back and was being told I would be killed if there were air strikes or any other resistance.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/europe\/dutch-un-troops-haunted-by-the-shame-of-srebrenica-9240339.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia probably drew useful experiences from this, one can guess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The EU entertains itself by over-regulating everything, and what was supposed to be the EU’s great global trade takeover \u2013 the green renewable technology is going to hell. Northvolt died, Stegra is next in line, and Europe’s car manufacturers have given up the fight for electric cars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wind power companies are probably all more or less insolvent since they deliver electricity when the price is low and have nothing to sell when the price is high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the USA, private financing acts as a filter, and China actually has a pretty neat state-controlled fierce competition that works, while in Europe, politicians open their wallets wide open as soon as the word “environmentally friendly” is mentioned in an application.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Entrepreneurs try to make money, and if they can do it through various environmentally friendly projects that don’t necessarily yield other profits than channeling taxpayer money, they do it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you ask me, I believe that Europe is so infiltrated by Russia and China that it will not be possible to navigate forward in a sensible way in the next five years or so, not necessarily in relation to the above broadside but more generally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One gets tired, in any case \u2013 Ukraine has presented the solution on a silver platter and offered to foot the entire bill, but we hesitated for almost 4 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A win for the USA, Russia, and China would be if the EU started to split up even further, by the way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As I said, the most crucial months of the war, only that it didn’t go at all as I thought in August when the USA loosened the reins, or Ukraine chose to take off the bridle, whatever it was\ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That made me a bit positive, but the question is still highly relevant what the USA and Trump’s game plan is \u2013 they blow both hot and cold, while stroking Russia the right way, they are ready to steamroll over Venezuela where China and Russia are preparing to defend \u2013 messy to say the least, but nice that 3 out of 40,000 from Srebrenica have received justice, about 30 years after the massacre \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I interpreted the Trump-Xi meeting as both being quite polite, Xi’s speech was polished and cautious. 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