{"id":3272,"date":"2025-11-10T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-10T06:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-november-10-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-11-11T06:26:59","modified_gmt":"2025-11-11T05:26:59","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-november-10-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-november-10-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update November 10, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I and Nelson Mandela are keeping an eye on this, but the report below from last Friday suggests that RU has tried to infiltrate Hryshyne (again) and that they are nibbling at Myrnohrad according to Ukrinform, which reports back from one of the army corps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In order to attempt to infiltrate into Hryshyne, they must logically already be in the gray zone in Pokrovsk, otherwise wouldn’t they have tried to infiltrate into the gray zone in Pokrovsk?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And are the units in Myrnohrad engaged in some kind of combat?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This post was written last Friday, so if anything has happened over the weekend, I haven’t caught it since I can’t write on weekends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I’m not entirely keen on this difference in reporting and sources that Vitaly is quite harshly criticized for, not to mention Deepstate and the others that we’ve been using for almost four years – it will be interesting to see who will report more truthfully in the future, but it is complicated by the constant offensives and counter-offensives, so a situation that applied yesterday is now outdated. Described as messy by someone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the situation was critical enough to justify sending in GUR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/4056254-russians-reduce-activity-in-pokrovsk-to-minimize-losses-defense-forces.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is the altitude curve for the Pokrovsk area if anyone is interested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/en-ie.topographic-map.com\/map-px7tdn\/Pokrovsk\/?zoom=9&center=48.40076%2C37.25476<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One thing that can be stated is that RU cannot withdraw more units from the Dnieper front if they should need to at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2023, the entire K1-K2 battle was actually in Bakhmut where Wagner persisted to the tune of thousands fallen, and the final number for Bakhmut was well over +20,000 fallen?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, the army also wanted to achieve greatness at that time, and Vuhledar was a disaster for them, but overall, the entire front section was calm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today in 2025, RU is attacking on all fronts with over +1000 losses daily, slowly advancing everywhere even though Pokrovsk is the only area being discussed \u2013 the logistics of maintaining an offensive on all fronts must be enormous, and the amount of resources being consumed is also sky-high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Combat in urban areas has proven to be difficult because RU “swarms” in with gunfire 24\/7, and China’s digital battlefield is effective – now there is talk that defense should be in open dominant terrain instead, but the question then becomes how China’s digital battlefield adapts to that – better or worse?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian gunfire attracts less attention, of course, but the big problem is the bespectacled Chinese with his red firing button.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I would think that a city with its basements and tunnels underground should offer more protection against detection?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fact that UA carried out an airborne operation is highly interesting \u2013 they are testing that type of warfare, and it apparently completely surprised the Russians, allowing them to sweep over Pokrovsk with their special forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My ever-recurring dark battle, apparently part of the special forces’ combat took place in darkness where they have a complete advantage \u2013 RU turns into prey when the lights go out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s happening over at the southern front, but according to Playfra, Deepstate is actually over-reporting there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

RU is also less than a mile from Pokrovske, things have moved quickly in that area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Northern Luhansk remains unchanged, and in Kostiantynivka, RU has gained a foothold in the urban areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Those who have logged equipment in the depot have begun to wonder where all the tanks and BMPs have gone because they are not being destroyed at the fronts in Ukraine, and what they have begun to suspect is that RU has built up units with heavy vehicles that are not in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You already knew this if you read the posts \u2013 the offensive strategic reserve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The difference is that even T72, T80, and T64 have been upgraded and assigned to these units, not just the new equipment like T90M.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

For a long time, RU invested everything in Ukraine and left its entire border with NATO undefended while expressing great fear of being attacked by NATO, which we laughed at.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since they are not the least bit afraid of NATO, the question arises as to what they should use this well-equipped reserve for by Russian standards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If it doesn’t fight in Ukraine, it won’t fight in a 3D drone warfare environment but against the technology of the previous war, which is what all the units were originally built for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Ukraine is also receiving new equipment for its offensive strategic reserve \u2013 Lynx armored vehicles have started to be delivered or are coming soon, recently Patria’s new APCs arrived, and they are getting all sorts of cool stuff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Italy has also finally started sending from its huge vehicle fleet, and even though it’s not talked about, REMO must be hot where they are upgrading old tanks with new weapon stations all over Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is undeniable that Ukraine has a huge mechanized capability with cutting-edge equipment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If they have good weapon stations on heavy vehicles, they should also be able to effectively combat drones, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our CV90 (not in the LV-KV version) was considered capable of combating quite a lot of airborne threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second question then is how Ukraine plans to neutralize China’s digital battlefield?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interceptor drones are already available and just need to be scaled up and deployed in volume to the units.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine excels in EW, we know that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s likely that they can pool capabilities at a front that gives them the advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And mine clearance has already been tested on a large scale in Kursk and worked well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Capability building for amphibious warfare \u2013 UA has hundreds of vessels in all sorts of sizes, they have dozens of our SB-90s now, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine’s cause is becoming more and more ours the longer this war goes on, that’s my conclusion, and at least the Nordic countries seem politically stable and understand the seriousness of the situation, which is good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In spring 2023, we were supposed to help Ukraine win the war as they were supposed to fight according to NATO doctrine. Two army corps had been prepared with brigades trained in Europe with brigade commanders without significant combat experience – but trained in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experienced brigades and old hands of brigade commanders were not invited to the party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We then forced Ukraine to attack where it was best defended, and even though the minefields were 10km deep, apparently it was supposed to work without air superiority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The result was terrible, and that was before the drone weapon made a serious entrance \u2013 RU artillery and airpower roamed around along with a few drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, Ukrainian politicians, officers, the USA, and others in Europe leaked the battle plan to the Russians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Has NATO done its homework if we were to go to war?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Would air superiority have helped? Today in 2025 with a highly decentralized drone weapon, could air superiority neutralize that drone threat?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do we have the ammunition to combat thousands of small targets?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For our own drone weapon, we do not have that today in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Ukraine’s part, they have learned the lesson from 2025 and are able to fight in a drone-saturated environment as they show, at least in Pokrovsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have shown that they can engage in combined arms warfare and have a fully-fledged drone capability.<\/p>\n\n\n

Mechanized warfare, defense clearance, and urban combat are fully mastered by them and their SOF and special forces are among the world’s best today and are in large numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They are capable of clearing deep minefields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their digital battlefield and kill-chain are excellent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have experimented a bit with airborne operations with mixed results – apparently, helicopters are easy to take out. But the airborne operation in Pokrovsk went very well from what I understand?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We haven’t seen much of amphibious warfare yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I believe Ukraine has a high capability for night combat and excels in it, even though no one ever talks about it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I would argue that Ukraine in 2025 is a real threat that Russia should be cautious of because it has a completely different capability in 2025 than it did in 2023 when they trusted us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How has Russia evolved?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China has sorted out the digital battlefield and kill-chain for them and mans it so unfortunately it works excellently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have adapted all weapons now so UA has a harder time shooting down drones and missiles, and the FAB has a range of 200km.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have learned to save on platforms and their drones are launched from cheap mass-produced vehicles – the time when one could take out an expensive weapon platform and get rid of the threat is behind us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The drone weapon is increasingly moving towards autonomous AI loitering drones and the whole package is a high-capability design produced by China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There should be fewer armored personnel carriers and fighter jets, and with a more worn-out vehicle fleet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Ukraine, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armored vehicles have been older models without REMO or with subpar REMO with inferior targeting systems. Very far from a vehicle modernization in UA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They push their ground troops to the limit and then reconstitute the units, so there is no significant increase in capability there even though there are experienced combat instructors in large numbers today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Special forces have been depleted a few times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And overall, the tactical adaptation has shifted towards light infantry. The ground troops are probably a rather ragged group without drone support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, there are mechanized units behind them, but they are quickly depleted once they are deployed and move along the roads.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Ukraine can only engage in a bit of maneuver warfare, the sniper fire is probably completely outclassed, assuming that the Chinese drone weapon can be targeted by suppressive fire so that the Chinese soldier with glasses has to hide under the table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crimea is attractive because they have the entire amphibious warfare capability at their disposal that cannot be used anywhere else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Airborne operations have been attempted to seize terrain more than once in history with disastrous results, and Russia abandoned paratroopers in parachutes during WW2, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But to airdrop with helicopters and take canalizing terrain ahead of a moving assault force probably works quite well if flying in at night and the battle takes place in darkness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Ukraine, just continuing to retreat will not win them any war, and at some point, there will be a ceasefire which would not be positive for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Either they launch an offensive at some point or the oxygen is slowly sucked out – I believe a ceasefire would be fatal for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don’t know if he interpreted it correctly, but Rob Lee is a credible source – he mentions +20,000 AWOL in a month, the way he phrases it, of course, I cannot read the primary source in the image under his tweet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If there is a ceasefire, the defense forces will completely collapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I and Nelson Mandela are keeping an eye on this, but the report below from last Friday suggests that RU 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