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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nNovember 10<\/p>\n\n\n\n Huliaipole<\/p>\n\n\n\n October 1<\/p>\n\n\n\n November 10<\/p>\n\n\n\n We pro-Ukrainians tend to see everything in light blue and yellow with soothing elevator music in the background \u2013 while RU is losing +1000 per day, it’s just “a few hundred in Pokrovsk,” so they don’t have control over the area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And while RU has between 27,000 attacking and up to 110,000 in the larger Pokrovsk area, it’s just “a few patrols in the gray zone.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia is on the verge of collapse while Ukraine will be able to hold out indefinitely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Many times we have seen UA do the best they can and embellish things a bit \u2013 Vuhledar was defended by a brigade that had 300 soldiers but held an area that was large even for a brigade. They received no reserves, about 30 per month, and in the end, the Russians went straight through them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We found out about this because the brigade chose to speak out in the media to avoid being accused of cowardice and desertion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Before that, I didn’t understand how bad the personnel supply situation was, and in the summer of 2024, Zelensky also guaranteed that everything had been resolved \u2013 I had previously chosen to listen to official UA sources and considered the alarms to be anecdotal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A unit in battle always has an apocalyptic view of the situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The reason I believe it is now time to start calling a spade a spade is that Europe must start making tough decisions here \u2013 I don’t think time is on our side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What is Europe’s plan?<\/p>\n\n\n\n I remember the “coalition of the willing” that seems to have completely fizzled out, or do you hear anything about it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is how Project Owl has marked up Pokrovsk, and what makes them attractive are the dated red markers confirming the positions of RU groups on that date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It seems clear that RU has gained a foothold in all the settlements from Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad down to Kozatske, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n RU continues with a constant swarm of gunfire, and UA carries out counterattacks where they clear areas, but it gives an indication of how far RU has advanced, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n And that’s where the discussion is now \u2013 how should one assess whether an area is conquered or not?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Is Project Owl purely pro-Russian nowadays, which immediately raises suspicion among all of us?<\/p>\n\n\n\n You remember the official report from UA last Friday that RU tried to infiltrate Hryshyne, and it was also in Hryshyne that GUR swept in and cleaned up Russian patrols that had grouped there earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Project Owl hasn’t marked anything in Hryshyne at all, right – I interpret them as still being accurate and rather conservative when it comes to bad news for UA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is what I believe, and we will eventually see whose reporting best reflected the situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I guess one day UA will leave the Pokrovsk area if things go badly, and then all those who claimed the maps were wrong will justify it to themselves by saying they did it for a good cause and then move on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But one of the most important things we have in this war is a group of volunteer osints who dedicate a significant portion of their time to trying to report the situation at the frontlines in the most honest way possible, and they have all suddenly felt unwanted by their own side. They are already hated by the Russian side, but now they have all turned against them all of a sudden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So what will happen in the future?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine has already used up its strategic offensive reserve in Pokrovsk and intends to hold the area \u2013 that decision was made last week. There were already geotagged videos of UA groups starting to leave the threatened encirclement southeast of Myrnohrad, but they reopened the entrance and stabilized the situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Russians, on their part, have entered a ceasefire and are now moving more troops forward. They still intend to conquer Pokrovsk, and I don’t know exactly where they are in the cycle, but there is no doubt that they will resume the attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since you saw the topography curves last week, you know that to the west of Pokrovsk, it slopes downwards towards the Dnieper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That is, RU has a height advantage in dominant terrain, somewhat like Popasna 2022 perhaps?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now, the terrain is mostly up and down everywhere, so it is definitely not possible to say that they will break through a ridge and then the lowland will spread out to the west as with the Golan Heights, but in the immediate area, Pokrovsk is dominant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I often discuss UA’s offensive capabilities, which they have, and if I were to guess, I think it looks something like this: the better units have had an easy time getting personnel and have also been prioritized with equipment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n GUR\/SOF and elite units like Airmobile, Kraken, Azov, 12th NG, and others have had it easier, and at the other end are the forgotten Territorial Brigades that have to manage with voluntary deliveries and are critically low on personnel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Militaryland is constantly updating, and one is struck by the extensive structure of the Ukrainian armed forces now \u2013 absolutely enormous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And above all, the size of their special forces in all its forms \u2013 there are several different branches with 10,000 personnel each according to Militaryland’s unit map.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I’m not sure how it looks in Europe, but our SOF capabilities are measured in the hundreds, and the closest we come is probably the French Foreign Legion in terms of numbers, even though they don’t quite fit into this category.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tens of thousands in SOF are an unparalleled capability, except perhaps in the USA. Additionally, they have combat experience and have undergone rapid training courses on the job.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Just like everywhere else, it is difficult to recruit personnel for the tip of the spear (apparently they have had a journey similar to that of a Swedish municipal company \ud83d\ude36), and the rear functions are expanding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Zalizhny worked with trust, which reached a breaking point when he was accused of us in the West forcing Ukraine into a disastrous offensive and was dismissed in the autumn of 2023, at which point everything would be reformed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Initially, many brigade commanders were sacked, and Sirsky inserted those he trusted instead, which was lukewarmly received by the army at large, who lost commanders they liked and got new commanders Sirsky liked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then they had to sort out the personnel supply, and now they have finally managed to organize themselves into army corps, mostly to prevent Sirsky’s micromanagement, which was at the battalion level. He divided brigades and, in the end, areas were defended by five battalions from different brigades where no one was in command, and no one knew who the higher commander was.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And above all, the higher commanders didn’t know who was defending the area or how they were faring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The offensive reserve should then be the SOF units, the 4 Ranger Regiments, and then the prioritized army corps like the 3rd, 1st Azov, airborne, and the marines for the simple reason that personnel gravitate towards them and they have an easier time getting equipment because they are somewhat famous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I think fewer of these units engage in combat other than as special forces or in cases of emergency, so having an offensive strategic reserve is indisputable. For example, in 2023, the marines fought throughout the entire offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is a very heavy armored fist with small sharp rivets that Putin is trying to dodge by rolling with his upper body; he is short and sometimes manages to slip underneath it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Last Monday, we reported on Rob Lee’s information about over 20,000 AWOL in a month \u2013 these are not desertions from staff positions in Lviv or Kiev but from the fronts where the situation is critical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Some years ago, we found out that since 80% of the wounded returned to duty, the brigades were critically understaffed, they fought for about six months without relief, and leaves were scarce, so frontline service was considered a guaranteed ticket to death or severe disability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We can get an indication of how soldiers feel about their situation with Rob Lee’s figures, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Again, I guess that desertion is an unknown concept in the units in the strategic reserve mentioned above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And they even have difficulty recruiting personnel for drone units now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I have discussed most things over the years, but a major issue was that Europe never made voluntary service in Ukraine something prestigious \u2013 there were major campaigns in Europe where they paid recruitment bonuses, good salaries from the home country, and then veteran pensions after a year of service at the front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Initially, there were quite a few in international units, but I guess there are significantly fewer today \u2013 old marines and SOF with “three tours in Iraq” have left because death is guaranteed, and they can’t handle it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What remains are librarians, teachers, and engineers who have nowhere to flee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Here too, I don’t understand what the hell Europe is up to, but that’s how it is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since 2022, with Biden and now Trump, the USA has been following a certain line, seeing Ukraine as a pawn and making a huge strategic mistake in trying to align Russia against China. In the worst case, they have pushed the country USA off the top of the pyramid. The betrayal debate will eventually be enormous, and conspiracy theories will abound, but it was probably as simple as this \u2013 they tried to align Russia against China but no longer had ground contact because they had it too good for too long.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite everything, Trump is driving the USA’s formal line together with something else, which we probably guess is to appease Putin for personal gain \u2013 money is not a bad guess, and to get help to stay at the top of the USA perhaps?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Europe hasn’t behaved much better, where countries like Germany were completely infiltrated to begin with, but we have slowly been straightening out the situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But we are still doing too little \u2013 far too little.<\/p>\n\n\n\n My suspicion is that Europe is gambling on the worst-case scenario being that Ukraine accepts a ceasefire \u2013 that seems to be what many believe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n “Russia will never attack us.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n Define “attack,” you damn peanuts, because you can’t even think that far ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That’s where almost everyone goes wrong \u2013 we have already shown that unless it is an open invasion with maneuver brigades, we will not invoke Article 5; anything below that, Russia can have fun with without consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And an Article 5 will never include invading Russia, so there is also a possibility that they are willing to risk it if they manage to pull ahead of us further in critical capabilities \u2013 the idea that Russia would attack Europe is seen as impossible, but it’s something Russia is just waiting for the right moment to do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Or if it’s about unlocking Europe for the Chinese attack on Taiwan \u2013 then they will do it as a puzzle piece in a larger game despite all our analysts’ wild protests that they are not following the rules.<\/p>\n\n\n Ask a Pole or a Baltic person, or someone in Finland if Russia can attack Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Donald Tusk, Trump’s Polish cousin, speaks out again – Putin’s subversive activities are life-threatening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Poland, Ukraine, Finland, and the Baltic states are very familiar with all things Russian and are trying to get the rest of Europe on board, but progress is slow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So what is moving in the right direction for us?<\/p>\n\n\n\n China has straightened out its production capacity and efficiency, and has done the same for Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China has also sold 3 million Geran engines to Russia – a certain signal of how many RU intends to produce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The more foolish ones I’ve listened to in recent years are all negative now but try to report as truthfully as possible, and now they have received so much criticism that they have started to hold back in their reporting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There are few bright spots on the fronts, Trump has shattered Ukraine’s hope of help from the USA, and Europe does nothing but pour money into the arms industry and hopes it stops there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I will return to the subversive activities, but all of Europe is starting to see a large group of professional protesters on its streets demonstrating against everything, mostly against the sitting government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And the Islamists are advancing their positions – the classic attacks on Christmas markets upset many, for example, very simple medals for the unity within the GRU responsible for the influence operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n You see domestic politics that are relevant now – but it affects everyone, and everyone is upset with everyone else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If it becomes difficult to govern politically, it also becomes more difficult to support Ukraine or have a united front against Russia and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Countries experiencing domestic chaos also leave themselves vulnerable internationally – my favorite is still Kier Starmer, who has completely lost his way and is struggling not to be ousted by his own party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Or that we should reduce carbon emissions by 90% in the midst of a raging war – do you think Rheinmetall will soon have to stop producing military equipment?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The biggest climate villain is probably the arms industry, those bastards \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n\n\n\n As I said, the most crucial months of the war, but as the West begins to tire, it is high risk for the Ukrainian bowstring to break at any moment, and then we have no backup plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So far, it hasn’t happened, and Ukraine is clearly showing that they will fight, but the bad news continues –<\/p>\n\n\n\n Europe is increasingly relying on domestic production within Ukraine, which Russia has noticed, so this autumn’s robot rain is targeting that in addition to the energy infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n