{"id":3311,"date":"2025-11-17T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-17T06:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/upcoming-turbulence-november-17-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-11-18T10:26:51","modified_gmt":"2025-11-18T09:26:51","slug":"upcoming-turbulence-november-17-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/upcoming-turbulence-november-17-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Upcoming Turbulence November 17, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Now that one is completely sawed off when trying to discuss based on the situation maps and the less intelligent we have listened to for over two years, it’s time for some alternative posts, but still relevant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I wasn’t going to write anything until Michael Burry closed down Scion Capital, everyone who has seen The Big Short knows who he is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My advice is at best bad – I told my brother last winter that in October there will be a stock market crash, it often happens in the fall – and I couldn’t have been more wrong. A good friend also did not buy an apartment in 2014, if I remember correctly, because I thought prices would go down, not advice but I expressed an opinion that he apparently listened to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Admittedly, we bought ourselves in the deep freeze late 2017 from a couple who had put themselves in insolvency so they had to sell with a huge discount to the only ones who showed up at the viewing, but my good friend in his rental apartment did not share my joy at all for some strange reason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A financial crash, stock market crash, housing crash, recession or whatever we are heading towards makes countries turn inward – when the downturn will come, no one knows, but that it is coming is starting to become clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That’s what we’re trying to do with Russia – crash them economically so they get tired of causing trouble in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First of all, you get internal problems, the opposition smells the morning air and the citizens absolutely scream. Does anyone think that the parties to the left of center would sit down and keep quiet if there were alarming headlines in the newspapers, or would they propose a vote of no confidence at an extra meeting on New Year’s Eve if given the chance?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Secondly, it becomes super easy for Putin’s paid traitors here in the West to start advocating for strict budget discipline. What could be better than cutting back on support for Ukraine, weapons purchases, and then preferably start buying cheap Russian oil and gas again when our budgets are burning and bleeding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In previous posts, I have argued that the USA is trying to trigger a crash so that everyone runs back to the dollar, and that China then suffers the most. The USA takes an initial hit in order to export the atomic bomb blast to someone else – it’s pure speculation and free thoughts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But something that is not pure speculation and free thoughts is that Russia would very much like to see us in the West in the same sinking economic boat they are already in. They are happy to provide a black swan – that is, a triggering factor. They have already tried that and they will continue to try until it works.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At some point, all that is needed is a really bad news to get the ball rolling, and Russia is a major supplier of bad news.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The question then is whether the EUR area is resilient enough or if we are facing a new 2008 with a new catchy name, or if it will be the PIIGS again perhaps because everyone lacks imagination?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With a little luck, maybe we can isolate it to the UK, which apparently is close to sovereign bankruptcy according to Bloomberg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Michal Burry has had enough now and says he can’t stand the valuations in asset classes anymore, and a united #fintwitter mocks him as a “one hit wonder.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, I went in and checked what he had earned since 2008 – very good, probably better than those who are now mocking him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A very important truth is that you can be completely right but if the timing is wrong, you will fail – many have comforted themselves with the fact that at least they were right when they moved into the rental apartment in Bagarmossen and are experimenting with different types of soy sauce on rice with a moving box as a table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then Burry shorted in Palantir and probably tries to drive the process through his platform maybe \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now in the spring of 2025, I started to consider saving in stocks (again) and it is a strong signal that it has made its way into the media reporting in the final stretch, but this is something I don’t follow at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The last time I did it was during the Dotcom bubble where a few months before the crash, I walked through the doors of Nordnet with 45,000 SEK in hand, which was half a year’s student aid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the downturn, I tried to buy the stocks I believed in, Gandalf, Framfab, Medialab for example, were recommended by exactly everyone who guaranteed doubling of the stock price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I asked those in my circle of acquaintances who had previously talked up the stocks but they had no tips at all anymore and were directly dismissive – everyone had only chased the stocks that were going up just because they were going up and then found arguments for why they would continue to rise. Real stock market legends until they weren’t anymore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With some anxiety – buy, sell, and buy again down to a portfolio value of 1,635 SEK. A classic “trying to catch a falling knife” operation that should be written about in history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then I sold the crap, closed the account, dropped out of the University of Edinburgh, worked my way through the recession of 2007-2008, and have been working ever since.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There were no more stocks after Dotcom because I have been running the race house – children – job – trying to survive covid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I followed the 2008 crash with interest as a leech because I had 1999 fresh in my memory. I was working in Angola at the time and it was calm there, did a stint for three months in Basingstoke in the UK and was struck by how worn out everyone was – they looked like vampires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We were at my cousin’s wedding in Spain for two weeks on a long vacation EXACTLY when Lehman crashed and I bought a paper newspaper every day and sat and read at a caf\u00e9 that had good sausage sandwiches. I felt a bit like Warren Buffet I thought because I didn’t lose any money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On #fintwitter, there are now guys who have had a portfolio since around 2015 at the longest. They have probably amassed everything between one million to 14-15 million among those who have been there the longest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The newer ones have started in the last two years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Everything is supposed to go up according to everyone – it’s a “bull market” and nothing is overvalued at all, and they post the weekly gains. Everyone is actually just looking at stock prices, chasing quick gains, and then trying to find arguments for why it is sustainable – I recognize that from my own career as a stock market shark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1999, it looked like this – the little molehill was 80% down and it took 13 years to get back to the top.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This one is excellent, someone bought CISCO at the top and thought “computers are the future.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Fun anecdote actually, everyone wanted NETFLIX but if you bought Dominos Pizza instead, you would have had the same stock journey as Netflix apparently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In October and November, there have been a couple of sharp dips – BitCoin took a big hit and many accounts faced margin calls, they had leveraged themselves and it went below the limit so the bank takes your account and you are left with nothing.<\/p>\n\n\n

A whole bunch of #fintwitter have leveraged portfolios with leverage I have discovered – this seems to be quite common now, which means that larger downturns are amplified when forced sales kick in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It seems like we are back to those financial instruments described in The Big Short but on a much larger scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think the “AI bubble” has great similarities with the “Dotcom bubble” – AI companies are valued at insane P\/E values (multiples), they don’t earn much, they promise trillions and manipulate assets and costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, Michael Burry pointed out that they double the lifespan of NVIDIA processors or whatever it is – an accounting trick to inflate the valuation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is mostly the AI sector that has surged and those belonging to it, many other companies are struggling and performing poorly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Already now I have seen a couple on #fintwitter – “XX has gone down, sold and bought into XX instead which has strong fundamentals”…. “why isn’t XX doing well, they had a very strong report.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here comes the tricky part –<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stocks have risen far above reasonable valuations already, especially AI, and the downturn that is looming is nothing but a “deflation” of the system back to reasonable valuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You think it’s unreasonable because you bought in at the top and use that as a reference for what is reasonable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then the cycle starts again – those who find the next APPLE or NVIDIA at the bottom after the deflation (or maybe it will be them again) will make X times the money this time too and everyone will say “I should have stayed long and never sold.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When it goes down, everything goes down but not at the same time, and “sitting tight” or “buying the dip” is equivalent to a quick suicide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even worse is selling those that are going down and trying to buy something else that hasn’t gone down yet hoping that that stock will go up so you can regain your former glory – when the new stocks start going down, you lose even more than the index and that’s exactly what I managed to do – I beat the index but in the wrong direction \u270a\u270a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You have every chance to see your portfolio erode by 80% over six months and then your wife will demand that you close the account and use the remaining funds to pay off some of the mortgage. You also have to promise to never mention the word stock again in the family’s presence as you have started chain-smoking and downing whiskey on weekdays – that’s how many a bull has left their budding career and become a tired parent with a second-hand Mazda instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you have never seen a major crash and have found something that has worked for you for 15 years, the risk is sky-high that you will continue in old tracks, think Michael Burry is a loser, and accelerate straight into the wall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At least I have decided not to start any stock savings before the “AI bubble” bursts, and then we’ll see if I still have a job after that – then maybe I will start recommending the next “stock rocket” for you and you can buy in by swishing me, best price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what happens when it goes down (we don’t know when) – this will probably start in the stock market and then the ripples will spread and cause major cascading effects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first group to be affected will be #fintwitter who learned the hard way and hopefully managed to minimize the damage, but there will be no new Teslas, fine dining, or home purchases for a couple of years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Layoffs will also start and it’s already a bit shaky now if I understand this correctly. Our unemployment rate is already at 10% today so it will get worse than that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exports will decrease significantly and this time we may lose market share if we are not very cautious – which of course we won’t be because we are supposed to reduce emissions by 90%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The central bank may lower interest rates below zero, so maybe no skyrocketing interest rates for mortgages in Sweden, but fewer buyers in real estate sales and we will probably see many summer cottages at bargain prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The “AI bubble” will reverberate in the real economy and there will be some tough years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then we have government bonds\/national debt, especially US ones that have been considered a neutron bomb. When Trump started playing tariff director, it almost exploded after a few days and he had to slam on the brakes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China – if they eventually collapse under pressure and enter into a fully bloomed epic Chinese crash with full cascading effects, it could get lively?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once it starts, a lot can happen and then historians will point out the brilliant steering and those who knew exactly what they were doing, but see it more as a game of pick-up sticks where those who quickly figure out which sticks to loosen fare the best.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We will move from “this is a new economy” to “the world is ending, jump into the lifeboats” – and then after a few years, it all starts again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The question is whether China and Russia managed to advance their positions during this time or if it is the USA that manages to outmaneuver China – we shall see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have actually given up hope a bit on Europe, but maybe we will surprise in the end?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Now that one is completely sawed off when trying to discuss based on the situation maps and the less intelligent 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