{"id":3382,"date":"2025-11-25T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-25T06:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-november-25-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-11-25T19:00:40","modified_gmt":"2025-11-25T18:00:40","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-november-25-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-november-25-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update November 25, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

It’s a bit early so far because what is flying around is not something formal in a list where the EU or Ukraine has published it, but different statements reproduced from the meeting in Geneva, so below is a certain degree of speculation until it is no longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First of all, we already know that an agreement is meaningless because Russia has violated 15 of them since they violated the Budapest Agreement, which the UK and USA did not bother to hold them accountable for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But don’t be discouraged by that – now agreements will be written again that no one will be held accountable for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe seems to have insisted that the US should provide Ukraine with security guarantees similar to Article 5 – why we didn’t instead write that we in Europe would provide Ukraine with strong security guarantees is very intriguing and can be perceived as weak by both Russia and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump may have picked up that ball and now it stands like this – the USA\/Trump has the right to intervene in Ukraine if Russia violates the agreement. So, the USA\/Trump has that possibility but not the obligation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, it states that Europe should follow the USA, so if the USA\/Trump chooses not to intervene, we should not do it either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. to Trump because Europe set the table for him.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    It also seems like Europe is discussing the size of Ukraine’s defense forces instead of telling Trump to go to hell – they have thus accepted that Ukraine cannot have the defense forces they believe they need to defend their country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Normally, it is the loser’s defense forces that are negotiated – is Ukraine the losing party?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    So far, Europe’s leaders seem to be torn between disaster or abysmal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Something that seems implicit is a ceasefire, Europe does not want Russia to acquire possession of conquered areas and gets entangled in a difficult wording, but the USA wants Russian interests to be accommodated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    However, a ceasefire seems to be a given, and that would mean that we have reached 1938.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Right now, I don’t see how Ukraine will be able to resist when Europe bends like a reed in a autumn storm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    They retreat at the fronts but with their strategic offensive reserve, they manage to stabilize the situation somewhat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    There have been whispers of an offensive, but as the USA\/Trump\/Russia now indicate, a UA offensive will draw significant criticism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    And if Europe does not unequivocally stand on Ukraine’s side, it will be a defeat in negotiations of some sort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The USA has –<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    -stopped the money so that the citizens will get angry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    -opposed Zelensky for a long time to weaken his political platform.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    -supported Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    -attacked the EU for the problems Russia has caused us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    -allowed Russia to drive some corruption scandal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    -taken a Russian capitulation plan and made it sound like a US document.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Europe is being too kind here, but the problem is not that, but that we are now heading towards a global conflict because we have exploited Ukraine’s four-year sacrifice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    One point was good on the European list – that Europe would send a lot of troops to Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Anyone daring to guess if Trump will even mention that with a single word?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Russia doesn’t want that, so you already have the answer, it will be hushed up just like with Kursk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Allowing the USA to negotiate when it’s not even a negotiation but everything is rigged is very strange, but that’s where we are anyway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    If there is a ceasefire, we are at the point where Russia thought they would arrive after a week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Then their phase 2 can begin four years too late, but they seem almost euphoric right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Baltic states and Poland are already today exposed to active war-preparing measures, not yet twilight, so it’s easy to see who’s next in line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Finland has started training reservists<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \nhttps:\/\/www.armyrecognition.com\/news\/army-news\/2025\/finland-begins-large-scale-military-exercises-focused-on-rapid-readiness-near-russian-border\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Now, I don’t know how much weight you can put on Telegraph, but according to them, Europe has suffered from acute battle fatigue and rolled over on its back and died<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \nhttps:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/world-news\/2025\/11\/23\/leaked-europe-rival-peace-plan-ukraine-full-russia-war\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    There is a whole bunch claiming that Europe has a brilliant plan and that we are the adults in the room – it’s about time to see the result of this plan now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The question is whether the same bunch will say that a ceasefire is for the better as well, but it’s not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    A ceasefire takes us back to 1938 unfortunately, and Europe will have to face the consequences of our brilliant plan for the next 5-6 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    One is not entirely satisfied with this, and one sympathizes with Ukraine, who trusted their friends but learned the hard way that we are the pals who betray when it really matters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    I will try to keep up and follow what is happening now during the most crucial months of the war because it will determine our situation in Europe for at least the next 5-6 years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    It’s a bit early so far because what is flying around is not something formal in a list where the 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