{"id":4037,"date":"2026-02-16T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-16T06:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-16-february-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-02-17T08:56:55","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T07:56:55","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-16-february-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-16-february-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update 16 February 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Ukraine is currently conducting an offensive at 4-5 front sections, which started just as Elon Musk shut down Starlink for the Russians, as we discussed in the last UA post.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I suspect it mainly concerns Zaporizhia, stabilizing the front, likely in consultation with the USA, but we’ll see how it unfolds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine remains completely silent, while Russian sources are in an absolute frenzy, indicating things are going very well. We know from before that when Ukraine stays silent, things are moving in the undergrowth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Does anyone feel Elon could have shut down Starlink earlier for the Russians?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do you now understand what the USA did as soon as things started going too well for Ukraine? Elon probably shut down Starlink for Ukraine at least 2-3 times, probably more when things were going too well. At least once was for the maneuver brigades’ ground battle when they were advancing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have also provided Ukraine with incorrect information that they acted on, and they have stopped them when things were going too well, asking them to halt where the threat of discontinued support was the blackmail to force Ukraine not to win the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The USA has also stopped providing Ukraine with target data and information, but UA now has its own satellites, and apparently France has increased the information provided to Ukraine to 70%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Ukraine had been able to fight on equal terms, this war would have already been won, as we knew from before. I won’t bore you with the VDV at Kherson again, but already in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This Starlink offensive only further confirms that assumption, but we are actually beyond this now – being angry at the damn betrayal by the USA since 2022 and that Europe’s leaders were infiltrated and personally terrified of Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I connected Starlink with Iran, right or wrong, but it could also have been because RU didn’t stop destroying Ukraine with robots?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But in recent days, Ukraine has targeted two refineries and a huge ammunition depot (GRAU), so they are pushing on, so it probably had to do with Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time Starlink went down, RU also shut down Telegram, another channel the RU army uses for issuing orders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Could it be that Putin doesn’t want to bring RU troops back from Ukraine – I don’t believe this myself, but the thought is born at least \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anyway, this counteroffensive has not yet broken through in the media, Ukraine is silent, and the maps are not updated, but the bits and pieces received from various sources (Budanov has gone silent now that he’s become a politician, then you’re apparently worthless…) suggest that UA has succeeded in carrying out counteroffensives in several places, all of which have gone extremely well, possibly even local breakthroughs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Starlink went down, RU’s digital battlefield, drone weapons, and combat communication vanished in one fell swoop, and when they tried to use Telegram instead for issuing orders, that was also shut down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dark times on the Russian bench, with generals and officers googling how to seek asylum in Dubai as we speak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s cold, Russian forces are in poor condition, and with a bit of luck, we will soon see how bad their condition is further back – an opportunity Ukraine will never miss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As previously mentioned, Ukraine has a strategic offensive reserve of over 60,000 fully equipped and elite forces with digital battlefield capabilities and all indirect capabilities at their disposal. I described this offensive reserve in the winter of 2024 and faced some skepticism, but it turned out to be true, of course.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I also guess that more brigades than that have been resting for a while now, so there should be an additional offensive reserve available beyond those we haven’t seen yet, but those 60,000+ troops have the best training, equipment, and personnel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RU is also building up a potent drone weapon of 160,000, and their material losses are low, so they are definitely preparing for an extended conflict, as we have discussed before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe has now caught up with drone interceptors and even lasers – there are NOW countermeasures against the drone weapon that will likely be deployed in units and at borders by summer, perhaps?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

With the ongoing whack-a-mole, we have previously speculated that RU’s window to do something fun against the Baltics would close around the summer of 2026 – that guess will likely be accurate again, you’ll see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s almost spring, and Budanov (before he became important with a tie) announced that RU is preparing a spring offensive. Since the damn Russians have had offensive operations constantly since the fall of 2023, there is a high probability of that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I interpret this UA counteroffensive as them seizing an opportunity, BUT they must have received advance notice that Starlink would be shut down – I don’t know the details of how things unfolded or what the US’s motives were for informing Ukraine, but it was a positive development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All sensible analysts now seem to agree that I was right earlier when I wrote that RU had built up an offensive capability outside Ukraine, and now the Germans are also warning about it – they must have caught up on my posts, but those bastards don’t have a paid subscription.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

What the Germans have obviously missed is that the whack-a-mole has now shifted so that RU’s window to somehow enter the Baltics soon is closed. In my opinion, the highest risk was during Zapad 25 in the fall of 2024, and now the curve will trend downward towards zero until summer\/after summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reason is very simple – the RU armed forces without the drone weapon are not deadly at all, I will come back to that below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The easiest way for Europe to succeed – let Ukraine defeat Russia so they turn inwards for 20 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then we can fortify the border again and agree on all measures against Russia when they fight internally because apparently we need many years to make simple decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have been saying this since 2022, and it still holds true.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You already know the USA’s plan – force a ceasefire and announce that all sanctions are lifted the same day. Still annoyed that Trump fooled me in August 2024, but now it seems to be too late for Ukraine, and Europe doesn’t care.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That Russia will try to politically and later militarily defeat Ukraine is collateral, Trump did his utmost to bring down Zelensky already, but fortunately, the country held together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, onto Johan No.1’s self-congratulatory branch for being an oracle on par with the ancient lady in Delphi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On two occasions, Ukraine participated with drone groups in exercises with NATO forces and completely crushed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A small drone group took out dozens of targets, and RU now has a drone arsenal of 80,000 or so and is building it up to 160,000. Just like Ukraine, Russia has learned what works after making all the mistakes themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WHAT DID I SAY.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There you have the reason why the Baltics are deserted, which was the assumption when I described Operation Baltics and a likely reason why Europe did not honor its agreements with the Balts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because in these agreements we promise to deploy heavy mechanized brigades in the Baltics in case of an increased threat, as was the case during Zapad 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe knew that the Russian drone weapon would tear them apart, and no sitting head of state in Europe today would politically survive thousands of dead young soldiers in a week… so they TOOK A CHANCE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe TOOK A CHANCE that Ukraine would be able to hold out and that Russia would not open a new front in the Baltics in any form, after invading Ukraine and showing themselves to be completely ruthless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But now we are beyond that IF Ukraine can only disrupt the Russian bastards long enough in Ukraine so that Europe can get all the anti-drone technology to the eastern front in bulk now during 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sacrifice UA made for us to have four years to get organized is indescribable, but of course it will be Macron, Scholtz, Merz, Starmer, Biden, and Trump who saved the world when history is to be written \u2013 and you can perhaps guess who has a lifelong job to write history fairly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So we add it to the pile of qualified guesses that turned out to be correct and hope that everyone at the time of the counter-comments understands how much they have ruined their own reputation by not agreeing with me on everything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If nothing else, during year 4 you also had the chance to accept the truth as it is and not as the media and politicians try to spin it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ukraine is currently conducting an offensive at 4-5 front sections, which started just as Elon Musk shut down Starlink for 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