{"id":4058,"date":"2026-02-19T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-19T06:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/do-not-go-on-vacation-to-iran-february-19-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-02-19T21:43:58","modified_gmt":"2026-02-19T20:43:58","slug":"do-not-go-on-vacation-to-iran-february-19-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/do-not-go-on-vacation-to-iran-february-19-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Do not go on vacation to Iran, February 19, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I lost the entire post about Iran but rewrote it when I stopped sulking, hence the echoing silence in your social media. For those of you who haven’t closed your accounts yet, the rewritten post will be below fortunately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It seems like an all-out robot and air attack on Iran is getting closer?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It doesn’t seem like the assassination attempt on Khomeini was successful – Hegseth was all worked up on Twitter but seems to have lost interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It also went quiet after all the explosions last week \u2013 the regime still seems to have the situation reasonably under control after further massacres of citizens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The goal of the operation should be to shake up the regime enough so that the citizens, as well as Israeli and US SOF, can break its back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USA: they have painted themselves into a corner, if they back down now after the mullahs’ threats, they will look weak and have a petrodollar and national debt to defend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran: they don’t seem like the guys who would sacrifice the country for a grand finale, and their families have already emigrated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Israel: they seem to want to topple the regime in Iran if we go by how they have acted since 2023. I guess they have been instrumental in this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia: being kept in check by the USA through the Ukraine war, Putin recently got burned with Starlink and he has something diabolical of his own in the works since Telegram has been shut down in Russia – I will come back to that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China: they probably want to test US resolve, their own diplomatic weight, and the various technology platforms, preferably by having only Iran target American objectives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In recent days, Iran’s leadership has been mocking and taunting the USA through all the channels they have, which they only do if they are prepared for a fight \u2013 “nerd-Trump can try that fatso, but all that will happen is that all his little dorky boats will sink and he’ll get diabetes.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

China has had an active airlift to Iran for months, and we can probably guess what has been delivered: LV, radar, drones, and robots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Iranian pilots haven’t had time to train on cutting-edge aircraft, and ground capabilities are not critical at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whether the platforms are manned by Chinese personnel or not, I don’t know, but we can assume there are Chinese liaison officers in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It might even be that China has built a digital battlefield for Iran that they are manning?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Satellite data will definitely be needed in defense, and China is likely to provide that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China has a fleet in the area with state-of-the-art destroyers and EW platforms, and an upcoming exercise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The USA has 1\/3 of its fleet in the area, and much more than during the Gulf Wars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There is a slight suspicion that the USA is setting up a Pearl Harbor as the fleet could have been in the Mediterranean instead, targets in eastern Iran could have been hit from submarines located in the Arabian Sea southeast of Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What will happen?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China and the USA will unleash all their EW weapons at full effect, and the defensive platforms that have barely been tested by Skunkworks yet but have been smuggled on board.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both will discover how their EW weapons work, and how their own weapons function under the opponent’s EW influence in a real scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Everyone will scream that it’s for close protection\/threat to their own lives\/self-defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Venezuela, for example, the USA used an EMP and then some sound weapon for ground combat that pacified the opponents, but here we are talking about the whole range of secret capabilities at a much higher level since the stakes are sky-high, not just a SEAL team that can be lost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Iranian regime will probably try to launch as much as they can towards Israel, and since Iron Dome faltered considerably last time, it is likely to result in spectacular hits and a lot of death \u2013 the rules of war and Israel are at war with Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Iranian regime and the Houthis in Yemen will do their utmost to sink a larger US ship, preferably an aircraft carrier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think China is there to test things out \u2013 if they lose all their ships in the area in an epic blast, they have the option to back off, start buying US government debt again, and close the BRIICS office. Maybe a few hanged generals and a couple of billion for Trump will also be needed?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If their technology turns out to be as good as they claim and American sailors are floating in the Arabian Sea, the rules of the game are updated in one fell swoop, and Taiwan will need to go into crisis mode pronto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia will fire verbal atomic bombs, but it has already been agreed with the USA that it will stop there. The USA-Russia relationship is fundamentally different from the USA-China one, we can probably confirm that even though my suspicion earlier was that the USA-China might also be playing a double game. I think we have enough information now to establish that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What will the USA do?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If they get a Pearl Harbor, we know what they will do, Lex Pearl Harbor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If they get the best outcome, they will be spurred to go even further in the future with the focus on China, why be generous to a country that has made it its mission to dethrone the USA by any means necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What will the outcome be then?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The best-case scenario is that the Iranian regime falls, no ships are sunk, and everyone leaves after some posturing and verbal threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The worst-case scenario is that we have reached the point where no sitting head of state can control this situation that takes on a life of its own when a stressed ship commander’s hoarse orders are misunderstood by the fire control team who presses the red button and escalation towards full-scale war begins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I consider it high risk that the USA, China, and Russia are all in the waters off Iran at the same time while Iran is being tackled on a magnitude much larger than Saddam in an attempt to overthrow the regime. This means the regime has nothing to lose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hezbollah has already called and informed (mostly in tears) what the thanks were for not participating on October 7, 2023, so Khomeini already knows how it will go if they try to be low-effective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, that was the short version, and I lied when I said I wasn’t sulking anymore, writing in a lot of open Word documents that I save, but sometimes when you have a new one, it hasn’t saved before the computer restarts or behaves like MXT servers in between.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are probably so close to a war without already being in a war that we will reach by 2026, with the exception of a possible operation in the Baltics as well, and maybe Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will the Hormuz Strait remain open \u2013 no.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will the financial markets react strongly \u2013 yes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the risk of sounding callous – for Europe, this operation or potential US-China war is not high risk in the same way as Russia’s actions in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It will probably result in us providing air and naval support to the USA and eventually Australia becoming one big military base (why the country isn’t already is incomprehensible to me!) but we will avoid general mobilization and burning cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Assuming we keep the damn Russians in check and they have something shady going on right now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I lost the entire post about Iran but rewrote it when I stopped sulking, hence the echoing silence in your 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