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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nIn a previous post, I questioned why the Russian state shut down Telegram around the same time the USA disconnected Starlink for the Russian army in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the way, Starlink still seems to be disconnected?<\/p>\n\n\n\n I speculated that Starlink was due to Iran since it was close in time, and my guess for Telegram was wild, but now we are circling back to it as we have more information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Completely blocking Telegram is done because they do not want any horizontal communication at all in Russia, they have previously cracked VPNs, Whatsapp, and all other communication possibilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What could be the reason for not wanting citizens to talk to each other?<\/p>\n\n\n\n -serious financial crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -agree to a very bad peace deal in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -palace coup during start-up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -the army has had enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -general mobilization<\/p>\n\n\n\n -operation Baltic in some form.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I hope for one of the first four, but I am worried that it might be the last two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Why is that?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Because Estonia has just announced that they will defend themselves in case of invasion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And Germany has just changed Bauer’s infamous prophecy about 2030, which was then changed from 3-5 years to now only 0-12 months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Someone shouted when Bauer’s idiocy was happening, who was it \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Who wondered if Bauer might even have been bought by the Russians \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n We need more information than this to see a trend, but if you remember previous posts, the efficiency of the Russian drone weapon will decrease significantly in the summer of 2026 and beyond as Europe begins to implement anti-drone technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Anti-drone technology was something we saw maybe two years ago, and the guess back then was that they would come as a rifle with a drum of smaller interceptors, now RU has an interceptor drone sitting on a rifle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It’s interesting that they have moved away from all the different countermeasures that tried to disrupt the drones to kinetic interceptors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n When I posted my posts about Operation Baltic in early autumn 2024 that no one read, the guess was that the window RU had to act would be over by the summer of 2026, roughly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n You also know that Ukraine has participated with drone groups in the latest NATO exercises and made a mess of our mechanics. Our guess in autumn 2024 why Europe did not deploy its brigades in the Baltic states turned out to be true \u2013 I declared myself an oracle for the fifth time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yes, it feels good when my early guesses are right, but you probably already understand that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Apparently, there is more to it because here comes a DN article about a dry run that completely spun up Europe in the stands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A Russian and a former senior officer played sandbox games against various countries in Europe and NATO \u2013 we suffered a major loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.dn.se\/varlden\/han-spelade-putin-och-overlistade-nato<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n We know that Russia knows that we are divided, and we know that Russia works 24\/7\/365 to prevent us from functioning better and being able to make tough decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A decision to deploy forces in the Baltic states must be made by each country’s parliament with a majority, and at that moment, the last paid pro-Russians will reveal themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We also know that Russia knows that currently their drone weapons have a sort of Guderian status and the scale is tipped in their favor, and further, that in 4-6 months the scale will tip back to Europe as we have anti-drone capabilities in place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n (but we still completely lack our own drone weapon)<\/p>\n\n\n\n We also know that Russia has hoarded heavy equipment and that today they have an offensive strategic reserve of maybe 150,000 + Belarusian defense forces + North Koreans + Letter agencies at 450,000 who are all within reach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We know that they have built up capability against the Baltic states and tried to conceal it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I have also speculated that Trump\/USA would prefer a divided, weak, and terrified Europe, but that remains a speculation for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What could happen and when is the door closed?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The door is closed when Europe deploys heavy mechanized forces in the Baltic states under an anti-drone umbrella.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then ground forces will face each other again, and our NATO doctrine of air superiority becomes relevant (again).<\/p>\n\n\n\n With one exception \u2013 the robots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We will soon have anti-drone capability against slow drones in place, but we do not really have protection against the “Iskander rain,” which currently is likely Patriot, SamP, IRIS, and what else?<\/p>\n\n\n\n We also do not have much of our own robot weapon, even though our air forces serve a significant function.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I still give it reasonable odds, but it requires that we not only have Special Operations Forces (SOF) throughout the Baltic states but also heavy mechanized brigades \u2013 until we have that, we will not be able to practically prevent an escalation in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia will again mine from a distance, and a swarm of drones will buzz around for a few days before we emerge from the twilight, so being reactive simply will not work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Proactive is the keyword for 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There are two scenarios \u2013 “little green men” in the Baltic states or a full invasion, if Russia chooses to mobilize, they will go for the latter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since the Baltic states have chosen not to mine the border again, still argue about the thickness of bunker walls, have built tank ditches that look like small drainage ditches, and have a defense force per country of maybe 6,500 before mobilization, they are still attractive targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n SE Estonia or NE Latvia are practically undefended, and if Russia decides to conquer a few miles and then go on the defensive \u2013 what do we do then?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Small green men are best met with European SOF, which is prepared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In a full invasion \u2013 unless Poland and Germany manage to roll through the Fulda Gap, the Baltic states are lost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n You will see the same as what happened in Ukraine with blown-up bridges, dams, robots, drones, SOF infiltrating, and some kind of domestic militia preceding the attack vectors, only better than in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Do not make the mistake of thinking that Ukraine will rush to our aid because they will not \u2013 for them, Europe is a jackpot in the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Also, do not make the mistake of thinking that the Russian armed forces are weak because they now have four years of work experience, and the strategic offensive capability they have built up has been trained by veterans from Ukraine and is traditional \u2013 mechanized, artillery, air defense, reconnaissance, and SOF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Our forces will face a qualified opponent with high access to artillery \u2013 and Ukraine takes 80% of its losses from artillery (before the drones).<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Baltic Fleet is of course at sea and lies along the coast of Europe with open robot silos, silent and waiting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ships from the shadow fleet have anchored at strategic locations, and you know as well as I do that they have plenty of cassettes with Shahed drones, and that all targets in Europe are logged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If Europe chooses to go to war, Russia can deliver a significant first strike with the indirect capabilities located around Europe, and for example, our air force is based at 10-15 major air bases in Europe since only Sweden uses road bases.<\/p>\n\n\n The same goes for the supplies to the mechanized brigades, missile depots, ammunition production, staff functions, and so on \u2013 everything has been logged by Russia during 2022-2025 and today they have the capability in place for a first strike if needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We are currently in some kind of eye of the storm \u2013 what the USA really thinks about Europe, we can only guess for now, but we know that if Russia could get away with it, they would take the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China \u2013 USA rumble in Iran is looming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Xi Jinping fired the entire military leadership \u2013 what will China try to do next?<\/p>\n\n\n\n For China, it would be very beneficial if Europe were locked in constant conflict with Russia if they go to war with the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite warning all Western governments in early autumn 2024, nothing has happened, but we have the leaders we voted for, and luckily we solved the climate crisis at least.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If we make it through until autumn, then the danger is probably over to the extent that we will then be defensible, and Russia will probably think twice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Pskov oil depot combated \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n