Several ships that were still in port were targeted a few days ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On February 26, the 5th fleet left its base in Bahrain and set sail. Below are my observations (I will come back later with an alternative, but this is my main line) –<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran missed a first strike with land-based anti-ship missiles from Yemen\/Iran and its navy – they let the USA strike first.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The 5th Fleet was docked until February 26, 2026, as big fat targets with fixed coordinates, and evidently, Iranian drones and robots have penetrated the air defense in MENA in large numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
My follow-up question then becomes the following \u2013 if I could figure out that the USA would attack through the aerial refueling planes, F-22, and SEAD F-15 that were moved forward, how could Iran, China, and Russia not come to the same conclusion and then decide that Iran strikes first as a preventive measure?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now, the fleet seems to be largely disabled, except for patrol boats and a bunch of mini-submarines – the capability is completely neutralized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As far as I know, Iran has numerous terrorist cells in Europe and has paid gangs and criminal clans in Sweden for acts of violence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
How is it even possible that they couldn’t have many criminals with Manpads at transit bases in Europe?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
How is it even possible that they couldn’t have many criminals with drones at transit bases in Europe where the aerial refueling planes, F-22, F-35, and a lot of ammunition depots were neatly lined up with 5m spacing for reloading?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And take out the aerial refueling planes and the critical US capabilities before they flew towards MENA?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This was an opportunity to try to decimate the US capability that won’t come back before Russia or China go to war with the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even though Russia has already carried out an obscene amount of sabotage and drone overflights during 2024-2024, so it’s hard to keep track.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This is all before February 28, 2026, which marks the beginning of the war, and by then, Iran had the opportunity for a first strike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After February 28, Iran’s air defense was immediately targeted, as I understand it, and Iran immediately began a retaliation on February 28 with robots and drones against 10 surrounding countries in MENA. A mix of military targets, civilian targets, infrastructure, and oil installations, and Jocke at johanno1.se is sitting in his bathtub in Abu Dhabi providing live reports between the strikes if you missed it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the first day, more than 500 robots, and on the fifth day, more than 50, the total number of robots and drones Iran is firing now has decreased by 90% since the start of the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What the USA has is what we have seen in Ukraine with a digital battlefield and “Uber for artillery,” all different platforms for indirect fire are on patrol, and the USA has all kinds of information gatherers, such as drones and satellites with infrared cameras that see an Iranian robot launch as an unmistakable flash of light, and within a minute of launch, a robot is in the target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The USA also has counter-battery radar similar to Arthur that we have in Sweden but at a much higher level, and their AWACS together with the fleet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If one dares to make a guess, the 90% decline is directly related to the number of knocked-out launchers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This is a delicate balance, and in June 2025, Israel’s Iron-Shield began to buckle considerably, an air defense system is only worth its name as long as there is ammunition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Evidently, no country in the world has learned the lesson from Ukraine, as they shoot down drones with Patriots, and half of MENA has tried calling Zelensky and begging for help.<\/p>\n\n\n\n How the West couldn’t prepare for something we KNOW Iran and China now have is strange, but that’s how it is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Round 2 in the air war \u2013 we can expect Iran to have saved capabilities to rain down over MENA when their air defense runs out of ammunition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is offset by the fact that the USA+Israel have total air superiority and can target objectives arbitrarily across the whole of Iran \u2013 whack-a-mole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It’s highly likely that there will be continued terrorist bombings in MENA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n You don’t win a war by bombing the enemy, that’s an old story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If Iran now bungled a first strike and has had its missile platforms severely decimated, then they have handled everything else just as strangely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yes, apparently Israel has been up to a lot (whether it’s true or fiction, I don’t know, but after Hezbollah and the bounty hunters, I’m receptive to most things) \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n -they have hacked Iran’s surveillance system for citizens and used it for surveillance against the Iranian elite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -they have had infiltrators everywhere, the rumor has it that Iran’s counterintelligence was led by Israeli spies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -some IRGC general has survived all assassination attempts, and now he was probably arrested when there was no more room for excuses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -the rumor says that Israel infiltrated dentists, and it’s mostly the elite who can afford new teeth, so they had GPS in their new fancy teeth blinking on the screens at Mossad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It seems clear that Israel has had almost total control over what the leadership is up to \u2013 immediately the entire leadership was taken out, and then when tiers 2 and 3 took over, they were also fought against.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But…<\/p>\n\n\n\n After the attacks started, the entire leadership met in a room Israel could take out, and when the next Ayatollah was to be chosen, the 80 highest religious leaders gathered in a regular large building that Israel immediately took out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n When Israel switched to targeting the IRGC and the police, they targeted several administrative buildings and bases full of IRGC personnel. Only now, after almost a week, have the IRGC and the police started regrouping to schools, daycares, and hospitals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hezbollah’s humiliating bounty hunter heist was in September 2024, and after the June 2025 attack, Iran had a massive purge in its ranks of Israeli spies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I find it extremely difficult to understand how they could act so naively \u2013 that the entire defense force, IRGC, police, and leadership were not in war groups in the field surpasses my understanding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This should have been done already at dusk, and there was no lack of warning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then, the entire leadership sitting in a location that the USA could effectively target a few days into the war is hard for me to grasp, especially since they tried it half a year ago, and Hezbollah is no more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Below, it signals to me that the USA’s information situation is excellent \u2013 much like all the knocked-out higher staff positions for RU in Ukraine, where they hit staff meetings that regrouped once a day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n To summarize so far \u2013 Iran missed the chance for a first strike, their LV was immediately taken out, they have not managed to target any high-value American objectives, their leadership structure is under severe pressure, and the IRGC and the police have taken some hits but probably not enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I am actually more than surprised by this, but that’s the reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What are the thoughts of the USA and Iran regarding the continuation?<\/p>\n\n\n\n USA:<\/p>\n\n\n\n They will continue to target objectives unhindered, but there are fewer and fewer targets, and they cannot start bombing schools, hospitals, or daycares just because the IRGC is there \u2013 that would turn the rest of the world against them in a week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is crystal clear that they have focused on a popular revolution and armed minorities in western Iran in an attempt to rally them against the central authority. Israel has also shifted to targeting IRGC and police targets in those areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Kurds were very peculiar, first throwing them under the bus in Rojava, then claiming they had gone on the offensive in Iran until the Kurds themselves denied it \u2013 at the moment, I don’t know what is true.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The USA has various influence operations in Iran together with Israel, where they take over TV and radio for revolutionary messages, and Israeli SOF are already in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We know they have started arming citizens, Israel led citizen groups to IRGC weapon depots months ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Right now, it seems that western Iran is in trouble, freedom fighters are fighting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And the IRGC is fleeing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Here we are now, more or less, well, I thought the citizens would try to take over immediately, but we would have heard about it then. Some cities have fallen, but certainly not Tehran because the moment it happens, it would be cabled worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What the USA most wants to see now is the complete fall of the regime, and then they can fly in their politicians, and over time, there will be a pro-Western government. Many things can go wrong, but that’s probably what they have in mind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Iran, what are they trying to come up with as they sit and sweat in the bunkers, waiting to die?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The obvious thing is to continue terrorist bombings in surrounding countries to destabilize them and put pressure on the USA to end the war. There are still many targets left, such as desalination plants for drinking water, LNG, and oil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Right now, they are probably very eager for a ceasefire, and according to the USA (so some doubt on that), they have tried to stop the bloodshed already with thousands of contact attempts on WhatsApp, but the USA is completely stonewalling them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What the regime absolutely does not want is a popular revolution because then all their security measures for themselves and their families will be gone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It’s a bit like that staircase in the funhouse that goes in different directions where you end up hanging and screaming in the railing when they try to escape. Now they have also made enemies with the entire MENA in one sweep, so there are considerably fewer safe havens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Leaving Iran also means that Shin Bet has a much easier time getting to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So, the number one priority is probably to try to cling to power if at all possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Therefore, we can expect more terrorist bombings of surrounding countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Iran also has tentacles in several surrounding countries \u2013 Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and there they should activate everything they have.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They are driving popular opinion in Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi, and in Jordan, we have the Palestinians, so all these countries are at risk of uprisings and unrest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The supreme religious leader of Iran has declared a holy Jihad against Israel and Jews worldwide this week before he is soon taken out by Israel, so the aversion and threat against Jews worldwide will deteriorate significantly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If they feel they are not getting a ceasefire from the USA soon, they will definitely activate all terrorist cells, gangs, and criminal clans they can in Europe and the USA for violent and terror acts as spectacular as they can manage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In several countries, they will try to override embassies with local talents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Someone told me that they never dare to close the Strait of Hormuz when I suggested it, so wrong again. Disturbing the global markets and trying to force price shocks is a sure bet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Full asymmetric warfare, and if they had nuclear weapons, they would surely use them if needed – they are that type of dictatorship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In summary, Iran has behaved just as poorly as Russia did on February 24, 2022, and considering their high arrogance, I am mildly surprised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But there is an alternative explanation for this, that the regime is not as utterly incompetent as the Russians, but that the US technological superiority has been almost total, yet this does not explain the lack of a first strike that the Iranians have completely missed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We know with some certainty that Israel has completely infiltrated Iran, so the leadership mostly feels like hunted animals; now they are announcing that retired officers must report for duty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But the US’s ability to protect high-value military targets may have been so high that Iran has tried but not hit anything?<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!7y4U!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8ef93f47-4c6f-4847-b8df-e0587e9961a7_828x1037.jpeg\")
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