{"id":4173,"date":"2026-03-08T07:56:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-08T06:56:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/russian-losses-and-activities-5\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T14:08:20","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T13:08:20","slug":"russian-losses-and-activities-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/russian-losses-and-activities-5\/","title":{"rendered":"Russian losses etc. over time + today’s losses"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Russian losses in Ukraine over time<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Time to once again review how Russian losses change over time to observe long-term changes and trends and possibly draw some conclusions from it.
I start by going through the corresponding data reported in the daily reports, then we look at some other data.
As a basis, I have as usual used Ragnar’s fantastic compilation of data from the war in Ukraine.
Thank you Ragnar! Follow him on Bluesky @ragnarbjartur.bsky.social<\/a> or on Twitter @ragnarbjartur<\/a> if you’re not already doing so!
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian losses of soldiers, killed and wounded (KWIA)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Russian soldier losses have varied during the war, often in connection with major offensives. The highest number of losses was around the turn of 2024\/2025. After that, it decreased to a low point at the end of summer 2025. Since then, it has fluctuated slightly but there have been no major changes and it is difficult to identify any trend. Losses have been around 1000 KWIA\/day in the last six months,

From the start of the war until today:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

To see more in detail, here is an excerpt from July 1 until today:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Russian losses of tanks and other armored vehicles<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The losses for tanks and other armored vehicles do not exactly coincide, but over time, they correspond quite well. From May 2025, the numbers began to decrease for both, and during the summer, the losses were very low. It has continued on the same track with some occasional bumps. One can sense that the losses are slightly higher now than when they were at their lowest. This could be a sign of increased intensity in the war. Ukraine has managed to regain some smaller areas.

The overall decrease in numbers is likely due to simply not having as many left combined with tactical adjustments as they discovered they incurred huge losses every time they attempted to attack with a larger number. If it is due to shortages, it must be assumed that they are using up everything they can produce; if it is mainly a tactical adjustment, it is very possible that they are building up a stockpile, and we may see larger offensives in the future.

Tank losses throughout the war<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Losses of other armored vehicles throughout the war<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Losses of artillery and MLRS<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The artillery losses somewhat follow the KWIA losses (and at the same time the intensity of the war regarding major offensives). The losses have also decreased from record levels but have slightly recovered from the bottom and increased towards the end. Currently, we have an average per day ranging between 40-50.
Artillery was something that many assumed Russia would run out of first. We do not know how much North Korea has delivered, but we had a sharp decline at the end of 2024 followed by an equally sharp increase. An increase that we do not see in KWIA or armor losses.
Regarding the use of grenades, it has decreased significantly, but despite that, we still have quite high losses (more on that below).
Losses of MLRS are so low that it is difficult to see any fluctuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Artillery losses since the start of the war<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

MLRS losses since the start of the war<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Downed UAVs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The curve for downed UAVs is growing almost exponentially. A year ago, I did not consider the Russian terror attacks as a major threat to Ukraine, but as it has intensified, it is now likely to have reached a level that makes it very difficult. Not only does it target the power supply affecting the entire society, not only the civilian population but also the manufacturing industry, which includes military equipment. Zelenskyy himself has mentioned that the production of Flamingos has been attacked, preventing mass production from starting according to schedule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unfortunately, we do not see any slowdown. Today, we set a new record that far surpassed the previous one. It is of course very good that Ukraine can manage to shoot down the huge numbers, but it also means that Russia’s capacity to produce Shahed drones has also increased significantly. Whether Iran is still delivering or if Russia is producing everything themselves, no one really knows. If they are dependent on Iran, it has not been noticeable so far, but they may have had large stocks to draw from. If this continues to increase at the same rate, I do not think it will be sustainable in the long run. Ukraine needs help to identify and eliminate manufacturing facilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Number of combat UAVs engaged since the start of the war.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Overview of monthly and yearly KWIA losses:<\/em> <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Losses of Russian air defense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Regarding air defense, the losses, like for MLRS, are quite low, but here we can see that something has changed recently. From very low losses, they have slowly increased and suddenly spiked. Could Ukraine be preparing to deploy aircraft, or paving the way for Flamingos, etc.? Or is it that Russian air defense is now becoming so weakened that it has become easier for Ukraine to neutralize it?
It’s hard to say, but we hope it’s a form of pre-emptive action before an upcoming offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Losses of Russian air defense since July 1, 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Losses of Russian soft vehicles<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

When it comes to regular unarmored vehicles, we are at record levels. This may be partly because they hardly use armored vehicles anymore, but also that motorcycles, ATVs, and other smaller vehicles seem to be increasingly used, requiring larger quantities. It may also be a sign that Ukraine has become better at targeting deep objectives. Perhaps it is a form of pre-emptive action before an offensive?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Losses of soft vehicles since the start of the war<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Special equipment<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Here too, we see a sharp decrease at the end of 2024, and since then, there have been minimal losses without any signs of an increase. I find it hard to believe that Ukraine’s capabilities have diminished; it is more likely that Russia has adjusted tactics and no longer dares to place special equipment too close to the front line. We have never been told exactly what is included in this category. It could be that thermobaric artillery like TOS, etc., is included here (they have differentiated between regular artillery and MLRS). If so, it could be part of the explanation. TOS has a short range, and they are likely starting to feel the effects. The same probably applies to larger vehicles with advanced radar, etc. In that case, we can interpret the low losses as a good sign; Russia has simply lost some of its “capabilities”.<\/p>\n\n\n

Special equipment, seen throughout the war<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Artillery attacks and suicide drones<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Here we can see that the number of artillery attacks has decreased while the use of suicide drones has increased significantly. A sign that modern warfare has evolved during the war in Ukraine where cheap drones with high precision are replacing older, more expensive, and clumsier solutions. Artillery is far from obsolete, but since June 1, 2025, it has almost halved, while FPV drones have more than doubled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Number of battles\/engagements<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Here we can see that the number has been very high so far in 2026, but at the same time, we can also sense a turning point towards the end with a decreased number. It is a bit early to determine if this trend will continue. These are the number of battles, but their extent is not clear.
The high number of battles since the end of the year may be due to Russia attacking with more and smaller groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Here we can see both the number of battles and KWIA for the past month. Unfortunately, the chart becomes unreadable if a longer interval is chosen. When examined in detail, it can be noted that they do not quite correlate. Individual skirmishes do not noticeably affect KWIA. This may be due to reporting not always being in sync, but it could also be because the battles involve so few soldiers that it does not make a significant impact overall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Here we see the comparison between Russia and Ukraine and the trend we have observed before, that Ukraine is now losing more than Russia continues. The ratio was below 0.5 but has recovered slightly and is currently around 0.7. We hope this trend continues. These data come from Oryx and are visually confirmed based on images and videos obtained from the internet\/social media and reviewed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Russia continues to expand its capacity when it comes to drones, both UAVs for nighttime terror attacks and FPV drones used at the frontlines. Their ability to adapt to modern warfare and seemingly ramp up production is concerning. This is also the most evident trend when looking at the charts. I see it as the biggest threat, although winter is over and Ukraine managed to survive it despite Russia’s attempts to disrupt the energy supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine is of course doing the same and has also significantly increased its production. They may not have quite matched Russia yet in terms of deep strike capabilities, but they have a massive production of FPV drones and have also initiated countermeasures against Shaheds. Otherwise, they would never be able to shoot down the huge numbers of UAVs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the situation at the frontlines, Russia continues to make small advances, but Ukraine has now managed to reclaim some areas. Based on the losses of LV, etc., it can be inferred that Russia is starting to struggle to defend itself, and Ukraine may be gearing up for a counteroffensive. There are rumors that Russia is having difficulty recruiting, and even pro-Russian bloggers are becoming increasingly negative. The latter, of course, also makes it challenging to replenish with new soldiers. It may soon be the right time for Ukraine to strike back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-03-08<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If Iran is still delivering Shaheds to Russia, it is not yet evident in the loss reports. New records for downed UAVs are still being set with a few days in between. In this latest report, we once again have a new record of 2,558, which is a significant increase from the previous record of 1,950. Russian losses of soft vehicles are also very high, the second-highest so far. The record stands at 312.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • 930 KWIA<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • 5 Tanks<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • 5 AFVs<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • 55 Artillery systems<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • 3 MLRS<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • 2,558 UAVs <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • 19 Cruise missiles<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • 289 Vehicles & Fuel tanks<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • 3 Special equipment<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Russian activities<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Here too, we have a new record. 9,837 suicide drones are, like UAVs above, a significant increase from the previous record of 9,054.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • 121 skirmishes<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • 86 Airstrikes (including 33 drones)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • 254 KAB<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • 9,837 Suicide drones<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • 3,514 grenades (including 49 from MLRS)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      SLAVA UKRAINI<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Russian losses and activities<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4171,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,32,21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4173","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ukraine","category-russian-losses"],"yoast_head":"\nRussian losses etc. over time + today's losses - 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