Ukraine survived the winter – will they survive the Russian bastards in the summer?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What do we know?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraine is currently plowing up the entire Crimea (almost) – the LV screen is virtually non-existent and Ukraine is arbitrarily targeting goals on the peninsula.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Ukrainian counteroffensive in Dnipropetrovsk oblast is going excellently, and UA has carried out local counteroffensives on all fronts that have gone extremely well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Twitter is filled with videos of a Ukrainian soldier dropping a T62 mine into some opening in the ground and then seven Russian flags being extinguished in the video.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russian winter offensive has not achieved its attack goals at all – they are behind schedule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russian strategic targeting of UA electrical infrastructure did not cripple the country, even though Trump withdrew all LV support just as that campaign was about to begin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
UA’s strategic targeting has new robots and drones at their disposal that RU cannot shoot down. In an operation against Novorossiysk recently, 4-5 ships were damaged, and they have good LV protection as it is a very sensitive target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
UA has also targeted the arms industry – Iskander factory, factory for wire coils for FPV drones, Geran factory, and many other important targets. Since RU’s robots and drones currently have parts from 2025 and the drone numbers decreased weeks after the factory and warehouses were targeted, it is likely that they are disrupting the supply chains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
UA has expanded its zone for “fpv drones” considerably and now has access to MLRS and rear functions that were previously protected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I almost get a feeling of 2022 and 2023, mostly 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In 2023, Ukraine targeted the mother depot in Luhansk and Wagner’s indirect fire was silenced for a month due to the significant impact on the supply chain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
RU has been conducting a persistent offensive since the fall of 2023, and Ukraine has rested units as best they could – most recently, there is a sparse picket line of infantry and drone units at the fronts, so where is the rest, one might ask?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The winter has been harder on RU units than UA units because the Russians are poorly organized in their DNA and do not care.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now we are in a time of wet clothes and cold nights, even though both sides have started to significantly expand their underground termite mounds with subterranean structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You can’t light a fire because the FPV drone will be there in a minute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We circle back to my post in 2023 about the UA offensive – they were to isolate a battalion with indirect fire all around so that neither maintenance nor task forces could advance, as the area was mined at a distance again, and there was drone observation (and other observation…) almost in real-time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defense would have FPV drones above them, and when they eventually take up firing positions, they are exposed, and at that time, it was probably ATACMS air-burst ammunition that would rain down on them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And finally, attacking forces with direct fire from tanks at long range, “Azov-style,” cleared the fortifications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We have seen all of this in 2024 when the strategic offensive reserve began to fight, and now the fighting has spread to all fronts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
RU is currently screaming on social media, crying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only thing missing from UA is to increase the pressure with more units, and this is where the reserve behind the strategic offensive reserve comes in – they must have rested and equipped a significant number of brigades since the fall of 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Spring is approaching, UA pre-emptive strikes are hard to miss, and they have offensive capability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So what does RU have?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They have reached a dead end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Their mechanized offensives have ended in death throughout 2025 – the 76th GAAD, which was one of the better ones, bled out on the ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
UA is fighting OFFENSIVELY with a loss ratio of 1:5, RU loses everything when they attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They have managed to deplete their infantry as ammunition in constant small offensives, BUT AS SOON AS Ukraine goes on the counteroffensive, the defense hides in their bunkers and is motivated to surrender with T62 mines modified for bunker clearing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Russian team cannot handle defensive warfare at all, and they have solved it by artificially maintaining the initiative since 2023 with a constant flow of human sacrifices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Their FPV drone weapons are now neutralized with UA drone interceptors, but RU does not have the same capability in the same quantity, so UA FPV drones are effective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
RU’s digital battlefield, which China manages for them, was weaker in mobile warfare as we guessed, and furthermore, Ukraine is targeting the capabilities in the nearby area such as FPV drone groups, artillery, and EW weapons. The FAB traps have been ensured by the USA\/Trump\/Biden that Ukraine never had any countermeasures against at all, as they would have likely lost the war already, which would have been unfortunate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The third leg of the UA war machine, in addition to expendable ammunition in the form of infantry and a potent FPV drone weapon, was the USA\/Trump\/Biden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In 2022, the USA prevented Zalizhny from attacking on the eastern side of the Dnieper to capture VDV and potentially end the war when Russia was at an absolute low point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After a tense autumn, Russia managed to stabilize the situation through mobilization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the winter of 2023, the USA and Europe actually prevented Ukraine from attacking into Russia, and before the summer offensive of 2023, the USA leaked all battle plans to Russia (along with others, of course…) and forced Ukraine to fight according to NATO doctrine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In stages, the USA and Europe withheld critical supplies when things were going too well for Ukraine, forcing them to abruptly halt activities that were successful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They also forced Ukraine to attack the best-fortified areas of the fronts, and after Surovikin re-mined everything, the hope was probably that Ukraine would give up after that and seek peace, but that did not happen – very low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
All of the above has already been confirmed, so no guesswork.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In 2025, Ukraine was too weak, and in 2025, Trump devoted himself to undermining Ukraine and trying to force them into peace, but Russia was locked in their decision-making options and could not accept a ceasefire because they knew that Europe would then deploy troops and equipment in large numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Zelensky fought for his political life throughout 2025, where Trump tried to force a new election, and they have probably also reorganized the armed forces and tried to address weaknesses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now the situation is very different –<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraine has a strategic offensive reserve of +60,000 and certainly a substantial reserve behind them consisting of many brigades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They produce around 50% of what they consume and have access to what they would need for an offensive – something that has disappeared from the reporting is that Europe has quietly sent enormous amounts of heavy vehicles to Ukraine, mine clearance equipment, amphibious combat boats, and other items that just scream offensive plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The whack-a-mole in the technology race is now in Ukraine’s favor at least until the turn of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump is fully occupied with Iran, and furthermore, Europe stopped listening to him after late autumn when he tried his old rope tricks again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What you will now see for the first time is a Ukrainian offensive on Ukrainian terms without the US or Europe leaking battle plans and then actively sabotaging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In 2026, Ukraine will also receive Gripen deliveries, so the last capability they need is on the way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What you have seen so far are positioning battles and efforts to take dominant terrain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yes, RU is planning a spring offensive as well but they are behind schedule and we know that it will either result in mechanical breakdowns with 100% losses or sacrificing shooting as ammunition, and both technological leaps have reached a dead end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When Ukraine’s mother-of-all-offensives will come is difficult to know because they can either decide to preempt the Russian bastards or wait them out, or strike when they have started and attack at a weak front – probably they will try to seize opportunities on the run as they have done so far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What we do know, however, is that before mid-April it will be possible to drive heavy vehicles over the potato fields again because the ground will be firm once more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The pre-fighting is also underway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So now we are just waiting for an indisputable sign that Ukraine is underway when it comes, and this year the Russian lines will falter before finally breaking, you can be completely confident in that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since we are creatures of habit, I will once again sit on a Friday evening with a bottle of whisky, completely misinterpret some satirical comment on Twitter, and proclaim that the offensive has now begun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Europe can help because RU has built up capabilities against us in the Baltics and Finland, as well as in Belarus against Poland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We should announce a spring exercise in May and June where we call in reservists and bring in mechanized brigades in the Baltics\/Finland and Poland to practice vigorously up to their borders – this would tie up the Russian forces so they cannot be sent to Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Because after Iran, Russia can no longer be sure that Europe will remain passive and now the Russian drone weapon has also been neutralized with Ukraine’s interceptor drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Checkmate finally came even to a very small tired man sitting in his bunker chewing on a caviar spoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Europe has had four years of managing to do everything wrong, but we must hope that reliable leaders in Europe have at least received enough information to know what to do in the spring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Game on, Russian bastards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A caveat is if Ukraine has reached an agreement with the USA to only recapture Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts and then there will be a ceasefire – I hope they have not made any deal with the orange devil here and keep pushing forward.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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