Here comes the post you’ve all been waiting for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The world is actually at war already, but our leaders are probably doing their best to avoid admitting it for as long as possible – the first shots have already been fired.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the First World War started with gunshots against Archduke Prince Ferdinand, then two enormous wars that the whole world indirectly or directly supports in one way or another, along with about a dozen smaller wars, should surely be considered as the beginning of a global conflict?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
RU-UA, Venezuela, Cuba, civil wars in Africa or interstate wars, Iran-USA, Thailand-Cambodia, Pakistan-Afghanistan, Pakistan-India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The rest of the wars are the kind that no one cares about, almost like civil war in Mozambique, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You might remember a Johan No.1 who usually writes that at some point no sitting head of state can control the development and the war takes on a life of its own – you saw the first signs of it when Iran began to target 10 countries in MENA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If Iran were to successfully sink an aircraft carrier after the Chinese or Russians provided them with the target, and perhaps with Chinese-delivered missiles – what would be the USA’s reaction then?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Something like that…<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But the global escalation also depends on the fact that the evil side can escalate, and with the developments in Iran, they will soon be gone – the statues have started to fall now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If one still believes that the USA has made a mistake, it is because they have ideological or other blinders on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraine is also heating up significantly in Ukraine, and if Russia falls, our current global conflict will be over just as it started.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I will try to reason based on the motives of all the dominant actors, and since I am world-leading, I naturally know how the whole world thinks in real-time, except maybe when it comes to Bitcoin where my investment tips to MXT didn’t turn out very successful for him, but that’s entirely my fault, and he has my full sympathy after the huge blown-up bag.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
One thing I constantly forget; everything is always relative, Iran may have been competent but the USA better, or vice versa – the USA themselves probably have a pretty good grasp on that and an opinion on China’s current capabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
USA-<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n In 2026, the USA decided to start acting outwardly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This was preceded by the USA doing nothing when Russia began its war against Ukraine in 2014 and escalated to a full invasion in 2022, and then they started sabotaging Ukraine so that it was statistically ensured that they did not have Ukraine’s or Europe’s best interests at heart at all, but rather it was more important for Russia to come out unscathed from the mess they had gotten themselves into entirely on their own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In 2025, the Houthis fired at over 300 ships in the Red Sea with a rather lukewarm interest from the USA to intervene more than with a limited effort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In June 2025, there was apparently an urgent need for nuclear weapons in Iran, so a limited 12-day operation without any real bite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The dollar started to fall, everyone said “sell USA,” and the whole structure began to shake significantly starting in Japan. There were rumors that it was China trying to economically harm Japan and thus target the USA. The only person in the whole world who believed that it was the USA attacking Japan to protect its dollar was Johan No.1, but he’s trying to cover that up now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then we had the trade war throughout 2025 where Trump, without exception, went hardest against his Western allies – for example, Japan sent its most valuable politicians and diplomats to Washington after Trump surprisingly imposed tariffs on them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Japanese delegation sat in their hotel room trying to WhatsApp their way to a meeting in Washington when someone got tired and turned on CNN. To their horror, they see Trump standing and saying in prime time that since Japan had ignored all his hundreds of attempts to contact them, they would now receive extra tariffs, those bastards – with long faces, everyone looked down in the echoing silence at their WhatsApp and wondered how they would explain it when they returned home to Japan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The fact is that the USA, at intervals, appeased Russia and went very hard against Europe – it was clear that the USA did not want to see Russia collapse after a loss in the Ukraine war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And in January 2026, the USA betrayed the Kurds in Syria who screamed – they are the USA’s strongest allies in the region who have always helped the USA when needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Before Syria, the USA then kidnapped Maduro and took back the Panama Canal, the turn of the year 2025\/2026 may be when the USA shifted into second gear?<\/p>\n\n\n\n On January 29, 2026, an economic declaration of war came when all markets went down simultaneously.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On February 28, 2026, the war against Iran began, which must surely be considered a qualified enemy?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Will the USA de-escalate now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Why would they, then, would be the first question – give me good reasons for it if I were the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The USA presumably wants a guaranteed petrodollar and for everyone to buy their government debt, we’re not quite there yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A good second would be if China collapsed so that US finance can start buying up Chinese assets at fire sale prices – that usually features on the wish list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since China has clearly stated its power ambitions – challenge the petrodollar and tie as many countries as possible to China, it’s not over until China can’t do it anymore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Presumably, the USA wants a Western-oriented South America, so expect more in that area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I dare not speculate about Africa, but if Europe gives up without a fight, it is not unreasonable for the USA to take on the challenge against the African Corps in exchange for a bargain price on natural resources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Johan No.1 has long said that the USA is now doing what is good for the USA, and right now we see it – the USA is implementing tough measures that are strategically beneficial for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For example, starting to combat Iran’s oil industry, which they have just begun – the USA is self-sufficient in oil if necessary, but Europe and China are highly dependent on it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia \u2013<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia is fully occupied in Ukraine and ensuring that the country does not collapse into internal strife, but they are also part of the escalation stages that they are driving together with China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Considering how Russia has acted around Venezuela, Syria, and now Iran, which they completely threw under the bus in many statements, it is likely that the USA has good control over them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Even though some shaheds are made in Russia and Russia provides targets to Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Don’t misunderstand this now – Iran was an important ally for Russia, and Ukraine is very satisfied with the effort, but Russia does not have the ability to support Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This does not mean that Russia will not continue to plague Europe, as it could be in the USA’s interest to have something low-intensity there that keeps us compliant and fearful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For example, the Baltics, and for those of you who are still laughing – how is NATO advancing in the Iran war?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Do you think the USA will lift a finger and help the Baltics?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Is the USA perhaps fully occupied in MENA?<\/p>\n\n\n\n But after this blow – never will Russia dare to fight against the USA, not even in mocking Trump anymore, there will probably be a lot more US diplomacy from there now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Europe hopes that Russia can be split and brought under an armed operation, but their trump card, the drone weapon, will be obsolete in the summer\/fall when we in Europe catch up with Ukraine’s anti-drone technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Whackamole has been knocked down once again and now it’s advantage Ukraine and Europe – Russia missed its chance for power advantage that was in the fall of 2025 and months ahead, by the end of summer or in the fall that chance is now just fleeting smoke.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What we will probably see is a failed Russian offensive that Ukraine seizes the opportunity in flight and goes on to win the war, but we are not there yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Europe –<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n We will follow the USA and provide support when we are asked to provide support, like Spain, which first declared the USA Air Force persona non grata and then when the USA threatened to put Spain in the icebox, immediately changed to allowing all pilots to stay at the Sheraton at the expense of the Spanish state and even threw in a free waxing of the planes with expensive turtle wax.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hopefully, we will dare to do the right thing with Ukraine, one can never be sure, but if Ukraine manipulates us well enough and has a bit of luck on the battlefield, we might be able to maintain support until Russia collapses. The USA cannot easily go to war with us or Ukraine because then they risk Europe switching sides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Europe’s defense forces are formidable, if we were to pool together all that the USA is currently doing, we would have more capability than them + Ukraine on our side. What we lack is the leadership, but it is not entirely impossible if we just manage to avoid the French.<\/p>\n\n\n\n You know what I want to see Europe do after this, but we are not there yet – fair trade agreements with Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since the USA managed to get Starmer to change his mind on various issues 30 times and then got Spain to lie down and bow at the same time, looking like a wildly swinging inchworm not moving forward, we should not be too obstinate in the future when American pressures come, even though we are now stretching the limits of what the USA does not want us to do with Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The USA does not have a magic wand to turn us on or off, after all, we are 27 different countries with different motivations and governments that do as they please.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The USA also does not have an all-seeing eye, and if they do not see what we are sending, they cannot stop it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Currently, Sweden is stopping Russian ships in the Baltic Sea, which was practically impossible a few years ago as it violated international laws, I was told. They are stopping them on EXACTLY the grounds we proposed back then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And the German brigade is partly in the Baltics now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine –<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n They will now try to win the war, and if they start to smell victory, it will be a revitalizing injection into hundreds of thousands of war-weary soldiers that will take them very far – we have probably only seen the beginning so far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n You can all see that Ukraine is preparing for a violent offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia’s spring offensive does not seem to be as violent as we feared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If they manage to collapse the fronts in Ukraine, it will not stop there, of course, and that is exactly what the USA wants to avoid – Ukraine gaining the upper hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine intends to collapse the country into internal conflict where all different minority groups declare independence, the six oblasts around Ukraine become their allies, Belarus falls towards the West, and then they will kill all war criminals over the next 10 years through GUR’s efforts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As soon as they sense an unfavorable power structure in Russia, they will act for the security of the empire and eliminate the candidates – as for Ukraine, they have had enough, and their national strategy will be a page from the Russian playbook, a weak and divided Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Never forget Dudayev and his prediction about Ukraine – it holds true.<\/p>\n\n\n\n By the way, Crimea is now LV free – pre-emptive strikes are ongoing all the way to Rostov.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China –<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n A lot depends on what China will do – or everything depends on what China will do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I’m pretty sure that January 29 shook them up significantly, and now there is half-panic in the meetings when Iran is to be discussed after this major strategic mistake of the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Prior to Iran, Xi fired the entire military leadership, and the best guess is that the military leadership did not want war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A letter has been circulating stating that Xi wanted to take Taiwan as early as 2022, but the military leadership were peaceful cowards – now all cowards have been fired.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China has lost – Venezuela, Iran, Syria, and soon Cuba over a few months, and Putin is WhatsApping Xi that the war in Ukraine is not going well at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They recently lost the Panama Canal, and their attempt to collapse the economy through Japan did not go as planned at all, as now everyone wants to buy US government debt and the dollar is soaring upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China is somewhat what we usually describe as a morning-tired, nicotine-starved, and cornered black rat with rabies. They also have a leader who has proven himself worthy of Putin in his fondness for oppression and imperialistic power ambitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The fact that China “has never started a war” is because they found all sorts of clever ways to murder millions of citizens throughout the 20th century; it was only from the 90s onwards that they made their class transition and could start projecting power outward, as all neighboring countries can testify that they do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Mainly thanks to Europe and the USA giving them our industrial production for free and even paying them as thanks, but then they have also hacked into all our technology through their IT brigades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China is definitely on the rise, but they are on shaky ground – there are suspicions that they are lying about their population size for telephone subscriptions, cars, computers, and other items are being sold for a population of about 500 million. The other option is that the remaining billion live in absolute poverty – just take your pick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We will have to wait and see what China will do, but a qualified guess is that they are starting to feel very cornered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is also not entirely unlikely that this is what the USA is working against – to get China to do something reckless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to the notoriously unreliable MXT on johanno1.se, China has reduced activity near Taiwan in recent weeks – IF China turns out to be just like Iran and Russia, big-talking cowards who back down from a fight, it would be interesting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But now other OSINTers are saying it, so it is probably true now but not before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The whole party has definitely gone to hell starting on February 24, 2022, and thanks to Ukraine’s enormous sacrifices, the West has bought itself the time to get organized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The global escalation has been increasing all along, but Israel has resisted much more than Russia and Iran probably expected, and the Iran war of 2026 is a total disaster for the axis of evil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now it is actually crucial that Iran and Russia implode, and something new rises from the ashes – we must reach that point for the sake of MENA and Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n After empirical lab tests and very difficult equations, I conclude that the likelihood of China trying to take advantage now while the USA is busy is higher than them retracting their claws and crawling back into their den, but there is probably a significant power struggle within China internally right now.<\/p>\n\n\n We will see it in the disappeared representatives and can in that way figure out who came out on top.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China has everything to lose by being perceived as weak cowards here and just like the USA, they should also realize that showing their fangs is the way forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If it stops at this, we will be stuck with China – but in the future, they will have a much narrower corridor to try to navigate in, the US chokehold is tight and they will lose a lot of their international business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trade tariffs, export bans, no Chinese companies allowed to take jobs in regions where the USA has influence, and so on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Gordian knot to try to unravel is that the USA does not resist the collapse of Russia, but Europe will have to be as cunning as the USA has been and push forward in secret.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The whole world order is rapidly changing, and if you ask me, the walls of the pressure cooker are bulging outward considerably – China and Russia have lost the battle but they are probably not weak enough to admit that the war is lost yet as too much is at stake.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia only has one notch on the meter – if the level of violence doesn’t work, you increase the level of violence, and if they get stuck in Ukraine, they will try their luck elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China, just like the USA, has their position at stake here, if China backs down, they will lose a lot of their international business and as a country fall back very hard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The USA has absolutely no reason to slow down now when they had absolute luck in Iran and feel that fortune always favors the bold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine is still the key to global de-escalation – if Russia loses the war and plunges into Russian revolution 2.0, then China will stand alone and probably they will back down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2026 was the year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Here comes the post you’ve all been waiting for. The world is actually at war already, but our leaders are […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4307","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"\n