In 2026, it is only Ukraine that masters it, but RU has learned the lesson the hard way and built a strategic reserve after the format that exists up against the Baltics. They have traditional capabilities\/warfare paired with drone weapons, and some protection against drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These are units trained by veterans in Ukraine and equipped with new equipment, but they probably lack the in-depth acute work experience of being hunted prey in Ukraine, so they still have a bit of fighting spirit left before they die. It’s a Russian thing not to pair war-weary victims with new recruits, so there is a risk of transferring the knowledge of how hellish Russian outdoor life is – it must be self-learned slowly so that one has served as expendable ammunition before understanding the extent of having a lifespan of less than two days on the active front, ideally it should take two days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Probably, they have relied a bit on letter agencies and ensured that there are enough Special Operations Forces capabilities in this new military district.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the Leningrad military district, established 2 years ago or so, there should be under 100,000 fully equipped units – mechanized with artillery and armored vehicles. It is likely that the command structure is in place, along with rear support, storage, and logistics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now I don’t remember what we wrote, but there were some AC and divisions that formed the backbone, I believe, and we have seen very few new T90M or BMP-4 at the fronts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In addition, Russia has its strategic drone weapons and then front-line drone weapons that they decided to significantly expand following the Ukrainian model – both accessible to the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They have been able to calmly build all the radar and all the launch pads they need in Belarus because Ukraine is not allowed to engage them. The USA has also now approached Belarus, making it even more difficult for Ukraine to act preventively in the area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Those 23 drones entering Poland were also to test navigation with SIM cards from the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is no shortage of warnings from Ukraine that Russia is up to something fishy with the focus on the Baltics – and recently all internet has been cut off in Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Everyone wants to believe that it’s because Putin is running between the ditches to escape the lynch mob, but it’s more likely that it has to do with an escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In Ukraine, RU is not making progress, they understand that, so we probably have never had a higher risk for the Baltics than now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hungary cannot open an attack vector down into Ukraine due to the election, and Transnistria will soon be lost to RU as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As soon as Ukraine’s interceptor drones are integrated with the Balts and in Poland, it’s over, and the German brigade is in the process of regrouping to Lithuania, but apparently, it will take all of 2026 to drive those miles on the road.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you, like me, follow the war, you know that Ukraine has now fought larger targets in the Pskov area three times, which is probably a job commissioned by the Balts because it is not a base area for capabilities with the final destination being Ukraine at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Personally, I don’t think Europe should take any chances, but I also understand that no country in Europe is ready to sacrifice a brigade of its country’s best in the Baltics (yet).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A first Geran drone with a warhead entered Lithuania from Belarus and did not explode in any high-value target at all, but out in the countryside, not because it ran out of fuel – a first small test, it was NOT detected by the defense forces and was NOT shot down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You may remember that Poland declared a no-fly zone that RU now tested to see if it didn’t work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The USA is pushing all buttons at once and is not our friend – we are alone with the Baltics, which is actually quite reasonable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The USA has managed to keep the dollar strong in the Iran war, but interest rates are rising, which is also why Trump is trying to calm the markets in words, even though half of the USA’s special forces capability is heading towards the conflict area, so it couldn’t be more obvious what they are planning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since a major stock market correction is looming, I think it is justified to ask the question – how will Europe handle a Russian opening of a conflict in the Baltics? Little green men or them entering and securing an area?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Belgium turned out to be pro-Russian, as did the President of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Spain – a common EU response is out of the question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
France, Germany, UK, and the Nordic countries remain, and we are evidently not proactive, which still surprises me, but we recently got proof that it is because we are afraid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kier Starmer in the UK has big problems staying in power, but the defense forces seem to be on track at least.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
France is training the Foreign Legion in Poland with UA instructors, I don’t know how many regiments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Will these countries decide to retake territory in Southeast Estonia or Northeast Latvia by force?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Will we declare war on Russia if the USA threatens to cut off all LNG for us?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Do we have robots to indirectly combat Russia with, do we dare to target objectives in Russia when Putin threatens with nuclear weapons?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Are we prepared to endure a Geran and robot rain like we now see in the Middle East?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
All of these are questions that should be the only thing European leaders are discussing now because IF Russia achieves even the slightest success in the Baltics and Europe projects weakness and indecision, then Europe will become the target for the upcoming financial crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You can now see how the financial markets react to the slightest thing, and the USA is constantly adjusting, it will be the same for us, and we may also face soaring interest rates and capital flight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is also a new migrant crisis on the rise, a new 2015, and the EU is pointing a very big formal finger at Russia. I am a bit annoyed that I didn’t manage to publish that post before the EU pointed towards Russia, which I started working on when Spain declared amnesty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You can be completely sure that Russia is heading towards a loss in Ukraine, but that does not automatically mean that Europe will come out unscathed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The USA has just put new pressure on Ukraine to give up land and agree to a ceasefire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Europe has exactly one chance to come out of this unscathed, and that is to meet it resolutely and violently in the Baltics when the day comes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If we don’t, a financial crisis will wash over us, and we will have several government crises throughout Europe with the USA keeping us on a tight leash and sabotaging everything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If we show weakness, everyone will try to eat us from the inside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I believe that Ukraine can put the puzzle together themselves (because Zelensky has a paid subscription to Johan No.1) and that they are therefore ready to venture on a violent offensive this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At some point this fall, I don’t know when, the interceptor drones have been delivered, and the German brigade is fully regrouped in the Baltics, but before that, it’s high risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We probably have SOF in the Baltics now but should of course regroup our mech brigades there pronto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since this is a new conflict arena, everyone believes they will come out as winners, and then we will know how it went after a while. We actually have so much information already that we can establish the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-RU has experience of combat under FPV and they have their own drone weapon that Ukraine does not like at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Europe has zero experience of combat under FPV and we have not yet absorbed this experience from Ukraine, we have started it a bit slowly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Europe does not have its own drone weapon, and our artillery is within RU drone range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Europe has top aviation at 10-15 bases in Europe that can be reached with Gerand drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Europe has top aviation but probably no large stocks of missiles or JDAMs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-RU units have shown they can endure quite difficult conditions in the Ukraine war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-RU has Geran cassettes on numerous ships from the shadow fleet surrounding Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-RU can send 500 Gerans towards targets in Europe 3-4 times a week where we probably won’t shoot down many.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Europe’s military leaders have already understood that our mech units will be droned out in the Baltics, it was discussed a while ago if you remember in a military game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-UA interceptor drones are probably under production for us as well, but most of it has probably been sent to MENA. BUT!!!!! It’s not just a drone \u2013 it’s a UNIT where different capabilities work together. We are not there at all yet \u2013 far from it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-The Baltics have 6,500 in their standing defense forces and can mobilize an additional 40,000-100,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-RU has scouted every darn bridge and weak point in our transport networks in the Baltics, Poland, and Germany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Belarus has carried out some kind of mobilization and many smaller exercises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-RU’s Baltic Fleet will be cautious because Ukraine can drone it away or it will be sacrificed if RU assesses that UA will drone it at the dock \u2013 interesting to consider that scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-EU cannot agree to send 90 billion to Ukraine \u2013 all decisions regarding operations in the Baltics will not be able to pass a vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Decisions to send units to the Baltics will need to be made in each country’s parliaments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Primorsk is completely knocked out, and Europe boards and stops the shadow fleet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Conclusion –<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The southern part of Estonia and the northeastern part of Latvia are undefended, so if RU would like to go in and take some miles of terrain to then go on the defensive, it is fully feasible without warning \u2013 the units are already in the area, and we could all wake up to that news tomorrow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
An “little green men” scenario would actually just give Europe the chance to move the brigades into the Baltics, so a greater likelihood that they take terrain and then threaten us with everything as usual.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When the German brigade is in Lithuania and the FPV drones are in place, the Suwalki Gap cannot be closed, but today it can be closed \u2013 a substantial screen of interceptors is needed, but only for a limited period when the mech brigades are to be moved through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the decision is made to close the Suwalki Gap, then the ambition level is to conquer the Baltics, and then more units are needed than what is in the area today. Even though the drone weapon allows the use of fewer maneuver brigades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Conclusion 2 will be that if we see any movement of Russian capabilities into Belarus or the Pskov area, then they have chosen war but that brigades are enough. No buildup like in 2022 is needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A lot of heavy equipment is already in place in hidden depots, so we should also keep an eye on soft vehicle convoys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
First of all, it is good for Ukraine if we get involved, and I think it’s time to really hit Russia hard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And secondly, UA will not be able to give up much to us in 2026 if they are to emerge victorious from their own war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Exciting to say the least, and likewise if we see troop movements from us into the Baltics, then we chose peace. Because the only thing RU wouldn’t be able to handle is 10 mech brigades dug in the forests in eastern Baltics, but they must arrive before RU attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I have decided not to believe that Trump is playing a huge double game to exhaust US capability against Iran so that Russia and China can rise. Occam’s razor applies, and Israel has pushed for action against Iran, so the reasons are legitimate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Trump has agreed with Russia on several issues, and it is highly likely that the USA will not lift a finger if RU jumps into the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Just like the bank, the USA is not our friend, and the USA is now doing things that benefit them \u2013 if they wanted a full-on Cold War with a weak and divided Europe buying security from them at five times the market price, it is not unlikely that they are striving for that again. After all, Roosevelt made a significant effort during the Yalta Conference to get there, so nothing was random, he had to make himself unfriendly with Churchill, sacrifice Poland, and curry favor with Stalin to get there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The next area to be invaded if the Baltics kicks off is naturally Svalbard, and the Ukrainian drones can’t reach there at all. RU currently has all capabilities in the Northern Fleet, and maybe one brigade would be enough?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Marine SOF for the Northern Fleet and Pacific Fleet have at least been withdrawn from Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Consider here that the USA will yawn and fall asleep over that too, maybe even hope that we ask them to fortify Greenland?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The risk is currently extremely high in my strong opinion, even if Ukraine will perform miracles in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then we have Taiwan, and China also has a window to deal with there because once the calm settles over Iran and the USA sails its fleet to the waters around Taiwan, that window is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The book on which I base all my prophecies has the following timeline:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Russia attacks Europe to lock us in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Iran rises and attacks Israel, Israel is completely overrun because as soon as they start to falter, every MENA country decides that the chance to obliterate Israel must not be missed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-China initiates war in Asia, and our current global conflict is mainly fought in Asia between China and the USA because the two previous conflicts were distractions that China paid for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With small adjustments, you can see that we have already reached 2\/3, and Europe as a collective has chosen to prepare almost not at all since 2022, even though we should have started already in 2007 when Putin gave his speech, or in 2014 when Donbass was attacked \u2013 if they haven’t read the book, do you think it could be that simple?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There aren’t many ways to actually make the Iranian regime fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So if one supports Europe’s restraint and that Iran should fall, one daydreams completely unrealistically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
One must choose between a war that could have been conducted better or further mass murder by the regime until they have raped, tortured, and killed the last women showing too much hair.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since the regime increased violence as the protests escalated, we had stopped with some kind of Afghanistan scenario where women first had to cover their entire head, then only show one eye, then no eyes at all, and finally not be allowed to leave the house because the dictatorship seems to have a particular aversion towards women.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The number of factors affected in larger conflicts like this is very high and can never be predicted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What probably saved the USA is that Iran chose not to carry out a first strike – that is something I will ponder a lot about, and historians will eventually consider my view that China and Russia messed up badly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the 5th fleet had sunk in flames at the dock in a cloud of 500 robots and seven thousand shahids, and China’s and Russia’s fleets had reinforced the area, the USA would probably have howled but retracted their claws since they accounted for a large part of the fleet in the nearby region that would keep the Hormuz open. It hasn’t gone perfectly yet, but the USA is working on it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The USA was lucky that Iran\/China\/Russia made the major misjudgment of our world war.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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