https:\/\/zamin.uz\/en\/world\/195788-lukashenko-makes-a-sharp-statement-about-preparing-belarus-for-war.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\nRussia is about to start its own offensive, which they believe will go as it has since the fall of 2023 – slowly forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The command structure and the political leadership are too far away to have seen the early warning signs we see and discuss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Russian offensive is increasing and they have the same talking points about Sloviansk\/Kramatorsk and other areas – the Russian troop commanders have received their orders, reconnaissance and positioning battles are already underway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since the ground’s bearing capacity will soon be acceptable, it is highly likely that it will increase, but we can safely assume that it will be more of a massacre and manhunt than a Russian offensive this year, and that it will last too long as the Russian system is sluggish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At some point, Ukraine will snatch the baton and roll out an excellent counteroffensive that will turn into a carpet of offensive operations with strategic goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The question that needs to be asked is – how far is the USA willing to go?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I no longer consider Crimea unlikely, and that the USA could intervene to “protect the peninsula since neither side has managed to control it since 2014.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The USA is almost forcing Hungary to choose Orban, they have just lifted sanctions on Belarus and are well on their way to lifting all sanctions on Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The USA is also constantly trying to talk Ukraine into peace, but Zelensky keeps saying no in increasingly provocative terms to the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Europe has already started to falter, we know that because we have asked Ukraine to pause the fighting of RU oil infrastructure – importing all oil makes us too vulnerable, plain and simple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I know I keep harping on about the Iraqi Shia militias, but you really must understand that convoys of hundreds of vehicles have snaked from Iraq to Tehran where the USA\/Israel have been able to track them in real-time but not engage them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This is extremely important because it has seemed like at least Israel was aiming for a fresh start with Pasha in Iran, but if thousands of militias are allowed in, it doesn’t exactly make it easier for a popular uprising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So it matters and is an important puzzle piece, just as tricking Iran into starting to knock out oil installations across MENA was important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Are Russia and China satisfied with the Iran war – not in the least, but a good compromise would be if the IRGC or the mullah regime could continue in one way or another. Could it be that discussions are also ongoing between them and the USA?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We know that Europe is not invited to any discussions because our leaders’ statements are newly awake and furious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Regarding Ukraine, it is undeniable that the USA is playing both sides with Russia and trying to pressure Europe to give in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If in Iran they end up just taking a toll for the oil through Hormuz, a % of Iran’s sales, and then let the IRGC keep power, they are not far behind in MENA either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But it seems that US interests have collided completely with Israel’s security interests, I will come back to that later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump is good because he talks too much when he gets angry, so we get a lot of information that way. Biden was better at keeping quiet, you have to give him that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I don’t know if I expected this, but now we have to keep an eye on Russia, China, AND the USA when it comes to global escalation, and the only thing they seem to agree on is that Europe should preferably be weak, divided, and scared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The USA has crossed many red lines, but since we live in the real world with consequences, there is only so much one can do as they line up missile launchers to threaten with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are very good reasons to ask how we could become dependent on 100% imports for much of what we now must have – there has been no shortage of warnings, to be honest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since 2007, everyone also knew that Russia intended to expand its empire because Putin gave a speech where he clearly stated it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now we are where we are, and I maintain that if Ukraine is not allowed to deliver its deadly blows against Russia by 2026, we are heading towards an escalation for Europe as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is becoming increasingly clear to me that the USA absolutely wants a weak and divided Europe with a Russian threat on the side so that we willingly buy security at five times the price from them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We have speculated about this for a couple of years, but we are now actually at the point where it is starting to look like Yalta 1945 again, where Roosevelt had to throw Churchill under the bus, sacrifice the Poles, and scratch Stalin’s back so that the USA could have its best years ever until 1989. But apparently, it was worth it because the USA has really made an effort to get back to this point. The Pentagon’s pizza index has hit the roof.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If we can lock in this assumption and then assume that Ukraine will continue to push until Russia gets its 1917 again – can we then guess that the USA will become increasingly hostile towards Europe and Ukraine the worse things go for Russia?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I don’t know, but this is something we must consider now, how far is the USA willing to go to protect Russia?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Israel is something too few are discussing right now, but they have not exactly made friends in the MENA region in recent months. Things like this seem okay until they are not anymore, and Israel was already at a disadvantage after their aggressive actions in Gaza. Egypt has built up some capabilities in Sinai, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Israel also has limitations in its Iron Dome capability, and more and more Iranian rockets are hitting high-value targets in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And not least the FPV drone weapon, which has actually caused significant losses to Israeli ground troops on several occasions because the opposing team has had Iran and Russia building up and training this new capability for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now, to a point I made on johanno1.se, I will paste it in its entirety below \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n
—<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The USA has never mentioned regime change, but Israel has been very clear both in words and actions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the first weeks, Israel worked hard against a popular uprising, from chasing Bashij patrols hiding under bridges with drones. The first IRGC members fled to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and do you remember the fire festival two weeks ago when citizens were out on the streets?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Israel has also worked hard to win over the army to the people’s side and equally hard to scare the IRGC and Bashij into desertion with threats through all channels available to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They have disrupted TV broadcasts several times, called for preparation for popular uprisings, but also said that citizens should lie low during the intense combat phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Pasha activated his immortal guard (the name…) and the first patrols were shot on the streets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Pasha activated his transitional government in exile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The above is factual and does not need to be questioned or discussed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Israel now has total air superiority, and their job has been the leaders, IRGC, and Bashij, as I understand it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The USA has provided SEAD and then the bombing of military infrastructure, and Israel has taken a bit more risks with direct overflights, as we saw in the movie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Step two \u2013 the people rise in cities in the provinces and take over the city, when the IRGC sends a battalion there, Israel is there and shoots it away. This is how the USA has worked with the Kurds in Syria, and now the AR-10 Warthog and Apache have been brought to the area for JUST THAT TYPE OF MISSION. You don’t send your top ground attack platforms halfway around the world without a plan, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fast forward a bit, and suddenly there are videos from Iraq showing thousands of Shia militias preparing to go to Iran, and then videos of them patrolling the streets in Tehran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is 900km between Baghdad \u2013 Tehran, and the USA also has a military presence in Iraq, right? They have known about these militias and could have fought them for at least 2-3 days, and the USA\/Israel have an excellent kill-chain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Somewhere around there, we have a turning point, and I think it has become significantly quieter about how to counter the popular uprising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Has Israel been overrun?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Is it clear that the USA did a quick smash-and-grab and will get a share of everything?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Will the USA support Israel in the upcoming chaos?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is a HUGE risk of political chaos in Israel after this because after the Gaza operation, broad groups are not entirely satisfied to begin with, and if the Iran war is perceived as a failure, someone will have to pay the political price for it \u2013 Netanyahu?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yes, I am a bit early with my concerns because the window is still open for Israel’s regime change, but the longer time goes by, the more uncertain it becomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Try to explain to me how Israel can risk their pilots’ lives to fight down to individual Bashij patrols, only to allow an equal number of Iraqi militias through in the next moment, making it a zero-sum game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-The only conclusion that can be drawn here IF there is no attempt at a popular uprising is that the USA ran over Israel?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let’s hope that Israel will release all the compromising material they have on everyone in the USA as revenge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Don’t misunderstand 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The USA is probably quite satisfied; they seem to have scared the IRGC into getting a good deal out of this \u2013 surely there will be protection money in the end and many other perks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The leaders of Iran have seen what happens if they try to be obstinate, so now they will do the next best thing and pay not to be killed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Of course, they will spin it as a great victory and so on, but Trump can never keep quiet, so we know something like that is in the works.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The dictator can definitely stay as long as he pays his taxes to the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The USA has achieved a lot \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Pushback against China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Intimidation in the MENA region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-More compliant Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Strengthening the status of the petrodollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is really only one cloud on Trump’s orange sky \u2013 Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They have the audacity to start negotiating with MENA countries that then dare to stand up to the USA \u2013 absolutely not part of the plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraine is performing so well on the battlefield that Europe is starting to toughen up against the USA \u2013 also not according to plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump and the USA have really been trying to defeat the stubborn Ukrainians throughout 2025, but they simply refuse to give up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
—<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The above was what I wrote on johanno1.se, back to today’s post.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In Pearson’s book, an incoming robot from Iran carried a contagious disease that spread over Israel in a week, leaving the entire defense force incapacitated when the war started \u2013 after COVID, this is not as ridiculous, is it? And it doesn’t even require a robot?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran could obtain a bacterial culture from any friendly country, China, or Russia, and through one person spread it in Israel without any problems. “It will spread to Iran,” someone will scream, and the response will be that the two-week window purchased in Pearson’s book was enough to overrun Israel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But yes, Israel managed to send their nuclear weapons towards Baghdad and Tehran, if I remember correctly the last thing they did – after all, the soldiers with the firing button are isolated in bunkers for a reason, right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then we have nuclear weapons, and now it seems like the IRGC chooses life, but they probably feel that Israel (and the USA…) has done everything they can to kill them, so in their world, they will probably try to retaliate in every possible way in the future – that’s what I would do. The only way to get rid of the Iranian threat is if the citizens rise up and start a revolution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With all that said – I believe that the security risk for Israel after this war, IF the IRGC remains in power, will be sky-high, and I do NOT think Israel wanted it that way, but maybe they have no choice?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Anyway – today we leave the Dominican Republic for a well-deserved vacation for three weeks, and there will be a bit of a low season with writing. Those of you who subscribe are encouraged not to unsubscribe because we will come back with a bang in a few weeks, maybe even with a post in the middle because too much is happening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
MXT will continue on johanno1.se with daily posts, and there are around a hundred excellent comments in the thread below discussing what has happened during the day, so don’t miss out on joining there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is quite a lot happening right now, but there will be more in our region probably if Ukraine doesn’t get there first – exciting months ahead of us, therefore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is also clear that Ukraine completely ignores the USA, so goals and operations they have never been allowed to do before are now on the table again, you know which ones.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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