{"id":4722,"date":"2026-05-07T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-07T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/azov-push-may-7-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-05-07T12:59:57","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T10:59:57","slug":"azov-push-may-7-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/azov-push-may-7-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Azov Push, May 7, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

We have confirmed through reliable sources what we have long suspected \u2013 since RU has been fighting offensively all the time, they have not built fortifications in newly conquered areas. At most, they improve UA’s old fortifications, but those are then facing the wrong way. They have also not mined again as in the Surovikin line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The old line is naturally further back in depth but is only a defensive line if units are stationed there \u2013 otherwise, it is just ditches you step over and mines you kick away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sitting and looking at Stepnohirsk \u2013 it is probably much more serious than RU yet understands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RU previously conducted an offensive towards Zaporizha that probably reached Primorske, they had water on the flank and then widened eastward quite a bit, you might remember my screams?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RU brought capabilities to the area for continued advance \u2013 one of the attack vectors in their spring offensive that received offensive units.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At some point, UA took the initiative, their units in the area are competent but fewer in number than RU. I guess some “volunteer units” number in the hundreds, for example?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RU is at the forefront with those who are supposed to be rapid reaction forces for the area if they go on the defense \u2013 VDV and reconnaissance. Two VDV divisions, a total of one reconnaissance regiment + 22nd Spetznaz brigade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Russian bastards are retreating right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

104th AAD and 7th MAAD are fighting almost up to Stepnohirsk except for two regiments, and reconnaissance is holding back a battalion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The only reserve beyond that is 7 BARS battalions at Tokmak \u2013 then it’s empty down to Crimea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By the way, I have probably underestimated BARS, they now seem merged from several and are more regiments than battalions \u2013 I must admit I have a bit poor knowledge of them and they are probably a bit better than I let on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Dnepr front has a VDV regiment as a rapid reaction force + a Spetznaz company.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Crimea is basically undefended as before, maybe 10,000 \u2013 15,000 strong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Further east along the southern front there are basically no rapid reaction forces except a reconnaissance brigade and then a Spetznaz company further south.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yes, RU can move units from other fronts but the last railway ferry over Kerch is sunk, the bridge is not passable and the east-west roads behind the southern front lie comfortably within UA’s drone umbrella.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only way to bring in reinforcements is via railway or access roads and they fall under the strategic drone weapon so it does not affect front-near FPV capabilities. There are really no better targets than a long snake of hard and soft vehicles on a country road when you have drones, artillery, strike aircraft, JDAMS and AHKP easily reachable within your “uber for artillery”. Missing to detect them today is incredible \u2013 Ukraine has its own satellites, gets information from Europe and constant drone surveillance with IR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They will see when preparations are made elsewhere, if nothing else ATESH tells them, and then they wait for the right moment when they have comfortably gotten inside the drone screen and strike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Movement by railway is almost an even more attractive target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is no longer 2022-2023, this year Ukraine can dominate all access roads and railway tracks behind the southern front where the bottleneck is gone at Berdyansk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RU has prioritized the Donetsk front and the focus now is Kramatorsk\/Sloviansk \u2013 the southern front\/Dnepr front evidently has to manage with sparser staffing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Only opportunities really \u2013 between Kinburn Spit and Crimea UA can conduct amphibious combat where they target staffs and rear capabilities that wanted a bit of sea view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Raids can be made against Crimea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They will definitely cross the Dnepr \u2013 there are several new marine brigades now in the area. Old territorial units that have gained this status through experience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At Stepnohirsk the best RU has in the area is already retreating, a few miles already and they do not have full control over the locality Stepnohirsk at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This year’s protective hunt has only just begun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Dnepr between Khakovka and Zaporizha today is a forest with a small stream (slightly exaggerated) in the middle that you can quite easily lay small pontoons over. I thought RU would exploit that but now it is UA’s turn. RU has no defense to speak of between Enerhodar and down to Khakovka \u2013 a good area to transfer large amounts of mobile units as they basically step over the Dnepr there with a little swan dive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

If they decide to pool something from the strategic offensive reserve with some drone capability, it quickly turns critically red for RU in the area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crimea itself will probably be the least problem as the peninsula is impossible to defend \u2013 Lex A Few Hundred Years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The amount of materiel down in Crimea is staggering \u2013 a lot is in need of repair and cannot be moved out and RU has previously shown great willingness to abandon heavy materiel when it is time for the Russian version of a retreat \u2013 wild flight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is why I am starting to wonder if the USA will step in to secure eternal peace in Crimea that “no one can hold anyway” by occupying the peninsula for Russia. We have not seen it yet but there is definitely a plan for it \u2013 but only if they can do it before UA is at the front door.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This Ukrainian operation goes under the name Azov thrust \u2013 I think it was Fram i Natten who had the honor of coining the term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This should have come already in 2022 but then Putin threatened with nuclear weapons if his VDV that was on the wrong side of the Dnepr west of the city of Kherson was affected, so the USA stopped UA to save the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the time we guessed something like that since Operation Badanka did not turn out as fun as someone promised anyone, and it turned out to be true. Again, we had to listen to the chatter from all the pros who knew it was never Ukraine’s plan and that they could never carry it out \u2013 until we got confirmation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2023 when UA’s spring offensive hit a wall, the marines attacked along the southern front but did not advance as RU threw everything they had against every breakthrough until it stopped. They had quietly been able to bring forward units because the USA, Europe and Ukrainian parliamentarians leaked the battle plan where the USA was perhaps worst as they also demanded everything go through them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What was not highlighted enough was that the access roads the rapid reaction forces used then were absolutely littered with destroyed vehicles long before they reached the combat area already in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You can probably guess how it will go this year and that RU does not have the numbers of graspable rapid reaction forces at all this time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, they have to try \u2013 it is according to doctrine and orders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The units along the Dnepr west of Zaporizha are a rather interesting mosaic of extremely capable units, many of which are probably smaller. Each one is a specialized unit and there is quite a lot of drone capability in the area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Something that probably works even better today in 2026 than when we described “The Great Campaign Plan” early 2023 is crossing the Dnieper with a company-battalion and going on defense in dominant terrain under own air defense and drone umbrella in a relatively undefended area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Or I take that back, when Ukraine started grinding on Kherson in 2022 they did exactly that at Davydiv Brid if you remember, so I can’t take all the credit for the upcoming smashing victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Say, for example, that Ukraine crosses with a company and occupies the small “peninsula” at Babyne, see below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Then they dig in and the UA official announces loudly that they have now crossed the Dnieper and Zelensky awards some brigade commander a medal with the justification that now they are winning the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Within a day, the commanders of the 18th and 59th CAA have received orders from Putin himself to retake the area “and throw the Ukraine bastards back over the Dnieper pronto or there will be court martial”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They will try with FAB which Ukraine is just waiting for \u2013 some shot down aircraft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All artillery or drone capability they try to move forward within range is being awaited by Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whatever task force they now choose must get on and convoy on the highway 50 km to reach the combat area \u2013 which Ukraine is rooting for, and waiting for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Voila \u2013 a week later three Russian regiments are smoking scrap heaps on the roads towards Babyne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This rehearsal trick can surely be repeated a couple of times, Kinburn Spit is another fun place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then the first attempt to move the front will probably be to clear all terrain west of the Konka river which is a natural obstacle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At some point they will be over the Dnieper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If RU chooses to do nothing at all, they will be over the Dnieper even faster \u2013 I guess that\u2019s called chess?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The question is whether sea drones are already today starting to move with air defense missiles at depth so that Russian air force will be completely denied access, and the drone cover is so extensive that MLRS are mostly targets now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iskander platforms or ships with Kalibr are probably priority targets and Ukraine has already conducted a fairly ambitious pre-strike in the Crimea area\/behind the southern front so the cleanup is already in full swing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second the CAA commander starts feeling that the land bridge down to Crimea is in danger, the entire Dnieper front will release in a gigantic locust swarm down towards Crimea or just eastwards towards Mariupol.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After that, Ukraine can let go of Crimea by just placing a defense at the land bridge and Voila No.2 \u2013 the entire southern front now has an acute flank threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If they have enough to put a drone cover over the Russian side and bring forward no more than three maneuver brigades, it has probably tipped to the blue team in that fight \u2013 this absolutely exists in the tangible strategic offensive reserve already, it\u2019s just a matter of prioritization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you also want to see the Azov strike this year \u2013 the probability of that increases exponentially if you become a paying subscriber on Substack and the more who subscribe, the greater the probability.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We have confirmed through reliable sources what we have long suspected \u2013 since RU has been fighting offensively all the 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