{"id":4795,"date":"2026-05-12T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/operation-rostov-12-may-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-05-12T16:17:43","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T14:17:43","slug":"operation-rostov-12-may-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/operation-rostov-12-may-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Operation Rostov, 12 May 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The ceasefire over May 9 is unfortunately a bit worse than I feared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since Putin, just like last year, dangled negotiations with the USA this week and leaked that they are working on a serious proposal to the extent that the EU started forming some negotiation group in pure eagerness, and then topped it off with 1,000 in a prisoner exchange, the EU remained completely silent and the USA asked Ukraine to hold back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just like last year, Zelensky is upset but there was a ceasefire. He has a decentralized defense force but it\u2019s nice to see that all drone capabilities kept their fingers on the trigger \u2013 actually good control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the evening of May 9, after the parade had taken place completely peacefully, Putin gave a speech where he directly said that Ukraine will not get any thousand prisoners \u201cbecause they are not ready.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UA expects a massive missile attack this week as they see the preparations and it would be very Russian to do exactly that \u2013 then Trump stays silent and the EU screams \u201ccheating\u201d again, at least I think that record is starting to get a bit scratched.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now it\u2019s nothing more than Zelensky needing to counteract the disappointment and the medicine for that is lots of drones but unfortunately Putin also managed to get a general ceasefire from May 9 \u2013 11 that Ukraine is following.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Behind the Southern front where I described the situation in the area with too few RU units and that Ukraine has fire control over the roads from Berdyansk, RU has now taken the opportunity to run huge vehicle convoys since May 9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the east towards Tokmak, Melitopol, Mariupol and Berdyansk. Then up from Crimea eastwards and northwards. He took the chance to bring in the units and supplies he thought were missing in the area since he got Trump to persuade Ukraine to a ceasefire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We will see in a while what he brought into the area, it\u2019s certainly not good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Azov thrust just got harder \u2013 that is the consequence of this ceasefire and why I have been sulking for a couple of days. Every year the same thing, Ukraine wants and can but we stop them with the result that the war is prolonged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine is starting to wrest the initiative and Vitaly on Twitter has just aired that he believes the RU offensive will be cut short because they have problems recruiting personnel. That is fatal because in the overall situation RU should be drained through their own offensive first.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then RU has drone capability and can reinforce them as well, and anti-drone weapons are about half a year away just like for Europe, or RU will have them before us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To play for team Putin in such a sensitive situation and let him cheat his way to an advantage again was bad, Europe could at least have said with one voice \u201cyes, don\u2019t drone the parade but drone everything else, it\u2019s still war\u201d \u2013 but we didn\u2019t. Zelensky tried that, the result we see now \u2013 they were forced into several days of silence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beyond the ceasefire and that we have cheated again so Putin doesn\u2019t burn himself too much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now I intend to head off a bit \u2013 the Azov thrust is well grounded in facts and really not speculative at all and it is my conviction that maybe three brigades would be enough, or maybe an army corps like Azov will be moved there?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You could start and then quickly move the armored fist at the right moment to surprise?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Already last Friday I saw that Azov is flying long-range FPV drones all the way to Mariupol hunting individual vehicles \u2013 when a brigade is on the move towards Dnipro and spotted on the highway near Berdyansk it can get really lively for the Russian bastards when they realize it\u2019s 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The unit maps are sufficiently accurate and so are UA\u2019s successes in recent months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What we hardly hear at all are all the praises over the UA offensive because they are completely silent now \u2013 they have done that before when there are avalanche-sized things in the making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For a while all info came from Russian milbloggers but now the OSINT analysts we trust have started doing their own analyses and not just reposting Russian maps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Something you have started to see is that UA is putting resources into trying to take out FSB headquarters and bases \u2013 the blast in Grozny the other day was at least one of the targets an FSB office?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have also fought some CAA headquarters which probably leads to chaos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then the constant grinding on LV, radar and platforms behind the southern front, Crimea and in the Rostov area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Armenia, Azerbaijan and eventually Georgia will all choose the West, that is clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kazakhstan, I believe, is also heading towards us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That does not happen by a natural law \u2013 Zelensky has massaged them seriously and also promises to eliminate the threat Russia that they are terrified of.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the presidents was with Putin about half a year ago and openly mocked him \u2013 you don\u2019t do that when you are afraid of the FSB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since UA has its ATESH all over Russia working with the liberation fronts, the level of sabotage and eliminated targets will only rise the weaker Russia becomes and they are guaranteed to be in contact with the republics that would want autonomy\/independence if they could.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Transnistria\/Moldova is already under EU and UA protection \u2013 just a matter of time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We stick to the Southern front to build further on the Azov thrust, what we don\u2019t know at all today is what secret plans Ukraine has. We know they intend to retake all terrain within their country\u2019s borders \u2013 you have heard Zelensky and especially Budanov say that several times in recent months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You hear zero about ceasefires or anything (before it now came from Putin unfortunately).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Side note \u2013 sometime this summer\/autumn Russia will seriously request a ceasefire and some half-reasonable plan. The USA with Trump at the forefront will immediately demand it and threaten with everything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Probably it goes hand in hand with the financial crisis washing over us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is the big crossroads for Europe \u2013 do we do as during the Cold War, conform and bow or do we fully support Ukraine?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Part of the plan is to stop the fighting in Ukraine which is bleeding Russia dry to be able to increase the threat against us \u2013 that\u2019s what our Supreme Commander says anyway, he has probably read the thread about an opened conflict front against us I think and then shamelessly stole it. He could at least have sent MXT a few bucks as thanks for the help. He can steal the posts, I won\u2019t try to sue him for intellectual property theft (yet).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.svt.se\/nyheter\/inrikes\/ob-varnar-ryssland-kan-testa-nato-inom-kort<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A ceasefire is thus fatal for Europe but good for the USA who then become important for us, again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ceasefires have many downsides \u2013 all soldiers who have been held together by a common enemy will suddenly stand without a uniting force and Russia will on the day break and split UA from within as much as they can. You have read this many times already and know what the result will be.<\/p>\n\n\n

RU will immediately reinforce the defense so that restarting hostilities becomes significantly more difficult.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then to directly attack Europe, brigades at the northern front could probably be ready for deployment against the Baltics within a week?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The battle plan already exists and unit commanders have probably done their preliminary work, one might guess, that “RU has not built up capability against the Baltics” is the dumbest analysis of this war from idiots who have already shown zero analytical ability since there are already 3 CAA + 3 divisions at the northern front today that within a week could have moved to UFA towards the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is in addition to their strategic offensive reserve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So in about a year we have gone from “2031” to “3-4 years” to “in the near term” \u2013 they should have read the thread I say, and the German Breuer\/Bauer is starting to be suspected of being paid for disinformation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have long felt that RU has too many units there since they don’t seem to want to attack much \u2013 these units have also had it relatively quiet for quite some time now and can be resourced easily from Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Now this was not what we were going to discuss today but “Operation Rostov”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine has already attacked into Russia up at the northern front, Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts if you remember \u2013 completely undefended of course because Putin hadn’t heard anything about an offensive from the USA, since UA kept quiet. They got endless shit for that from the USA who were angry that they didn’t have time to leak the battle plan to Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chaos, panic but when areas were to be negotiated in 2026 Trump refused to mention Kursk with a single word.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then 2-3 days before Putin was to meet the negotiators in Moscow, and he had already said earlier that there would be no discussions before UA was out of Belgorod\/Kursk, UA left the area with a poor excuse that was easy to see through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump cheated his way to a win for Putin who immediately went there in uniform and beamed like a child on Christmas because half a year of grinding with his best brigades had yielded exactly zero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin is not taking chances again \u2013 the northern front is well staffed today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other focal points this year are Slovyansk \u2013 Kramatorsk and down in the Donetsk area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We went through the southern front in the Azov thrust the other day but I want to remind about Vodkarun with Wagner a few happy days in summer 2023 when it turned out that RU had zero units in depth just like up in Belgorod and Kursk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Azov thrust will quite quickly isolate Crimea which is simply cut off and then the peninsula is exposed from the sea sides where all evacuation attempts become too costly. Besides that, the Kerch bridge is impassable and a Flamingo away from sinking, and the last heavy ferry was recently made unusable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the front has then moved, UA can reach Crimea even with JDAMS and probably ground attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Behind the southern front UA is now somewhere after crossing the Dnieper, maybe they got all the way to Melitopol and threaten the area eastward on the flank?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Melitopol itself has a north-south defensive line and now maybe Putin has gotten units there under ceasefire but earlier it was sparsely populated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All RU units up at the southern front now have an acute threat on the flank where all access roads conveniently lie within UA drone umbrella, and UA has all opportunities to keep pressure up both from the west and north.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crimea is impossible to defend \u2013 within a few months it will fall somewhat depending on priority – what has then happened?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine suddenly threatens Russia again in an area that has no direct defense at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The units on Crimea can move forward as far east as at the level of Berdyansk (down on Crimea) without being threatened, and the amphibious capability UA now has can suddenly be used against RU again – namely the Krasnodar area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their frontline drone umbrella extends 100km eastward from that point and through sea drones they can reach as far as the eastern part of the Sea of Azov (Taganrog) to launch their LV, drones or missiles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you want to land at Taman it is excellent defensive terrain again, you reach Novorossiysk with all kinds of weapons which is the port RU has hidden the rest of the Black Sea Fleet in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

If RU starts pulling units from the fronts all the way down to Taman those brigades disappear from the fronts, but how do you do that?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Probably by train which ATESH is just waiting for, there are some nice railway crossings we checked already in 2023 I think \u2013 north-south railway tracks are not many and major roads neither.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The same applies here \u2013 to reach the area a large logistical transport is required which all lies within UA drone range now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you really want to mess things up you get Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia on board with an incursion from the south while you yourself attack in the Rostov-na-Don, Volgograd, Astrakhan area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Voila \u2013 the three countries that helped did so to never again have a land border with Russia and enjoy UA border protection forever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Logistically challenging \u2013 sure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For RU, impossible to use their indirect capabilities against fast-moving units that spread like a fan in the broader area and land at all possible places.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Impossible?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No, not at all, the three states have decent defense forces, the Black Sea Fleet is basically passive and UA screens indirect capabilities and LV so strongly that it would make it difficult for the Russian air force to fly missions in the area because they will never know where a patrol with manpads is located.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Probably ATESH would already be in depth with fire against airbases at takeoff and landing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now that you have come this far and already exclaimed “unreasonable” in front of your computer \u2013 who was it that correctly suggested that Russia should be invaded before the Kursk offensive?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But yes, everything is apparently politics nowadays, USA with victory parfyms-Trump at the forefront will do exactly everything to prevent this from happening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe, which at that point probably starts getting guarantees from a rather pressured Putin, will probably also suggest that the best for Ukraine is if they don’t get any ideas, their EU membership could depend on it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the advantages would outweigh the disadvantages \u2013 RU is denied the Black Sea, UA gains access to the Caspian Sea and reaches Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and especially Kazakhstan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future guarantee for the EU that pipelines for oil and LNG go overland through Ukraine into us who are then in the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RU contact with Iran is also cut through the Caspian Sea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China’s attempts to tie these countries to itself are broken immediately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A real alpha move from Ukraine that maybe also needs some help from Kazakhstan?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such an opportunity will never come back and there is definitely a plan for it with Budanov and Zelensky, whether it is politically feasible is probably the big question.<\/p>\n\n\n

As evidence, it is stated that Wagner made it to Rostov and then all the way beyond Voronezh before the FSB managed to arrest all the commanders’ families and, with threats of torture and murder, convinced them to stop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It would also directly bring down Georgia, which still has its pro-Russian corrupt dictatorship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These -stans together can probably deploy 300,000 \u2013 400,000 in well-resourced mechanized units northwards if they want.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Considering that Armenia has joined us and Azerbaijan is now selling LNG to the EU, the idea is not entirely unreasonable. Kazakhstan has quite a bit of trade with us and probably knows which side would suit them best.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China’s “road and belt” initiative would collapse overnight, with all the hundreds of billions of dollars wasted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The wild card is if the USA teams up with China now during upcoming meetings; if they don’t and China has to keep an eye on the USA, they can’t provide much assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If China wants to take on Kazakhstan \u2013 good luck in those mountains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Iran simultaneously were to get a Western-friendly government like Pasha, the world order would be completely overturned overnight for Russia, China, and unfortunately also the USA, so they might not fully support this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We in the EU have already hinted that Armenia and Georgia might be welcome to join us in (the relative) warmth (during summertime).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It would be easier for China instead to go and snatch some area in Russia that is now completely undefended before the opportunity slips out of their hands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As usual, I am a strong advocate for seizing the opportunity Ukraine has created for us in flight to rid ourselves of a 300-year-old problem \u2013 the Russian imperial disease.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It would have been incredibly good to have a Russian conflict zone extending into the Baltics before this started, so we must make sure not to reinforce the Baltics at all this summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even better if there is some kind of front collapse in Ukraine or a palace coup in Russia \u2013 then UA can carry out Operation Rostov without losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe should really see the upside of this and at the same time take the opportunity to bring down Belarus, demilitarize Kaliningrad forever, and Finland could get the area eastwards so we get rid of the threat from Murmansk?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I had a post about where the future border for Finland would go, so they already know that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we take the opportunity now and then completely mine the border again while the power struggle is ongoing in Moscow, we will have solved a problem that we in Scandinavia have been plagued by for over three hundred years. If there is anything that has worked well in this war, it is the mines; they lie where they lie, and mine clearance has never been the Russians’ strong suit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turkey would at least keep in line permanently after this, only upsides.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The ceasefire over May 9 is unfortunately a bit worse than I feared. 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