Today we need to discuss Trump \u2013 Xi’s upcoming playdate May 13-15.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The worst thing that could happen to us in Europe by far is if Trump \u2013 Xi come up with the idea that the least troublesome thing for them is to divide the world between themselves along with Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We know that Putin \u2013 Trump have already done this; Venezuela, Ukraine, Syria, Cuba, Iran, eased sanctions for RU, stabbing UA in the back, trade attacks on Europe from the USA and more that absolutely do not benefit the USA’s supposed allies in the rest of the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The latest rumor is that Putin is giving Trump a ceasefire before the midterm elections in exchange for some sanction relief \u2013 helping each other where needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We also know it will be called a cold war, dividing the world between themselves which is every dictator with a bit of self-respect’s big dream \u2013 clear borders for where one is allowed to desecrate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The new player is China, which was fully occupied with mass murdering its own citizens during the cold war and did not have time to participate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The plan is the same for Europe \u2013 scared, divided, frightened and cowardly as Russia projects a great threat against us closely followed by economic warfare supported by a financial crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The least bad option for us in Europe is that China \u2013 USA fall out and fight until they get tired, two elephants jabbering at each other until they run out of gas and give up where the conflict zone becomes Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump has already abandoned South Korea, Taiwan also feels somewhat abandoned and Trump has asked Japan not to deploy missiles near Taiwan so the signs are already readable in the night sky. The first line against Chinese expansion is no longer propped up by the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As soon as China manages to capture Taiwan, the path is open to expand like a fan where Australia lies furthest away \u2013 Taiwan is the block.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These two gentlemen who have fired their respective defense leaderships and do everything to imprison political opposition are to meet once again this year after playing with Lego cars now in May \u2013 unusual. Xi Jinping’s big power move was, by the way, when the old king Hu Jintao was humiliatingly removed from a major meeting in front of rolling cameras, that signal politics probably missed no one in China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Unusual for bitter mortal enemies to meet so often and we all know that everything the USA has done in the last five years was to get at China – or is that not true?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Macron, who is French and therefore by birth has the worst impulse control, is already talking about this rather frightening troika “that is like dead to us”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
During the Cold War, the USA \u2013 Soviet Union resolved it as follows, they stood in the middle of Europe and fake-threatened each other to keep Europe terrified. There was a red phone so they knew where they had each other. The USA and Soviet Union played us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then they had different core areas the other was not allowed to enter, while other areas were proxies where “may the best man win” applied and one could deliver pinches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nothing lasts forever and the Soviet Union blinked first but the USA’s own communist-hysteria was quite dictatorial at its worst. The USA is not the bastion of democracy at all \u2013 they had their racial laws well into the 1960s, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Post-fall of the wall, the EU and China have slowly advanced while the USA has declined in relevance together with Russia which has pure self-destructive behavior and is its own worst enemy, they hardly need any external enemies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We have reasoned about the following scenario \u2013 Russia opens a conflict while we in Europe can agree on a response, capital gets terrified and flees to the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
RU conflict with us will try to be under an Article 5 and EU response until it no longer works \u2013 only when the Russian bastards already stand a few miles into the Baltics and threaten with nuclear weapons will we get closer to a response from us that must be voted through in each country’s parliament because then divisions are needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yes, our brigades into eastern Baltics today would give us the time we need but they are not there, they should be there because the threat level is elevated and the agreements stipulate that they then shall enter the area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
First NATO must have consensus before Article 5 can be activated but then each country’s parliament and assemblies must vote to go to war with more troops than the directly accessible governments have the right to command. In cases where decisions can be made by governments, it becomes a matter of agreeing to retake land in eastern Baltics or alternatively let RU hold \u2013 quite a few governments in Europe are coalitions today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The UK soon has no government at all and is completely stuck in domestic political bickering, Kier Starmer was a weak leader in bad times as we have described a couple of times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Does Denmark have a government \u2013 no, they do not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Do we have elections soon in Sweden \u2013 yes, we do in September and the main thought then is to win the election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Do you think Spain will send troops to the Baltics with the coalition they have?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Has Poland promised to defend only Lithuania or also Estonia and Latvia, and does the same apply to Germany?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If NATO applies \u2013 why have Poland and Germany taken some kind of special responsibility for Lithuania?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now maybe things like this change but that was the last I heard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the USA opposes everything \u2013 do you think we will bomb Russia or retake the potato fields in eastern Baltics by force?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But in the broader picture it always includes that the USA sooner or later goes to war with China in Asia, that is exactly what all the pros say will happen and when I sit and fight for subscribers on Substack they have full-time jobs with high salaries + revolving doors into TV sofas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Does Trump go to China to declare war in person or does he do it by email the day before, some animated figure with a little Chinese doll that explodes and WAR in red rolling text?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Does he go to China to find balance with China so they avoid war?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran was probably also an attempt to scare China a bit I imagine \u2013 one of the hidden purposes?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump dangles Taiwan and that he will keep a low profile in the rest of Asia + trade in exchange for China leaving MENA and South America to the USA?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A personal bribe to Trump is naturally also included besides China giving some big piece of meat that makes Trump look strong before the midterm elections \u2013 Trump likes trade so expect some juicy trade deal or investment that will “make us filthy rich here in the USA because you have me as president”. Maybe Chinese investments in Republican-controlled states?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Africa will probably be the proxy arena (again).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Both agree to try to help Russia get out of the mess they have gotten themselves into.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It can’t get worse than this for Europe \u2013 the only way forward is then to forcibly bribe our own security instead of leading the way to eternal peace through trade and joy with Sweden at the forefront as the humanitarian superpower.<\/p>\n\n\n
Are we there \u2013 Macron thinks so anyway as he stands with a bright red face yelling about Napoleon’s spirit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Can we resist all three, well I would say no, but if history repeats itself we have actually done it before \u2013 and the EU is becoming increasingly stable so maybe we can handle an attempt, time will tell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If we fail to hold out, the house of cards will fall pretty fast \u2013 we are now in the phase where the most firepower wins and all the countries that have now started orienting themselves against us will then be forced to back down before threats we cannot protect them from.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For me, there is only one way forward \u2013 make sure to solve the Russia problem before Russia solves its problem with us. We do that by ensuring that Ukraine wins its decisive victory and that the Baltics become a Russian mass grave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After that, we mine the border again, help Belarus and demilitarize Kaliningrad and we have solved our first urgent problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If Russia falls, we at least have a chance to start strengthening ourselves but if a Russian bastard keeps poking us with a stick in the side all the time, we become too chaotic and project so much weakness that our new friends disappear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What I can say with fairly high certainty is that the evil team is still seven steps ahead of Europe \u2013 the last time we tried to visit China, the EU delegation was received by a bus and an intern. When Trump comes, it is Xi Jinping who welcomes at the airport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Europe, on the other hand, has made a really solid alpha move in response,<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We board the shadow fleet, threaten the USA with dumping government debt and now do not want to enter into trade agreements with China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We actively push for trade and “friendship” with; Japan, SK, Taiwan, Brazil, Canada, Australia, Mexico, India and all the old -stans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Who do you think could feel acutely threatened by this \u2013 I can think of three.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Do you think these three will sit still in the boat and wait until we are the empire where the sun never sets again?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We know Russia is starting to get cornered but also that they then just escalate the level of violence \u2013 the only thing they can do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We also know that the USA goes to war nowadays, and that Trump is prepared to try to weaken us with soft financial weapons \u2013 already underway since early 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We have not yet seen China’s move, the first confirmation comes this weekend but if they want, they can choke off quite a lot of our imports which we are still 100% dependent on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yes, great with LNG from Azerbaijan but that pipeline is one sabotage away from going to zero, right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is a lot this evil troika can do against us that we have difficulty defending against for the simple reason that they have already chosen war while we still think it is peace, and pretty sure we are not ready to be an active party in a high-intensity global conflict yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What Trump and Xi are now cooking up will affect our security situation \u2013 we can be completely sure of that. Our alpha move was sensible but as this develops, you need to run parallel alpha violence when you make an alpha move, and it remains to be seen if we are ready for that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now my campaign for more subscriptions on Substack yielded nothing so we move on to phase two \u2013 if you read all posts and like them, it would be kind if you could share them on all channels so the rest of the world also gets the benefit of reading them.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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