{"id":4870,"date":"2026-05-15T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/if-you-want-peace-you-must-prepare-for-war-may-15-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-05-15T15:45:09","modified_gmt":"2026-05-15T13:45:09","slug":"if-you-want-peace-you-must-prepare-for-war-may-15-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/if-you-want-peace-you-must-prepare-for-war-may-15-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"If you want peace, you must prepare for war, May 15, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A lot is happening \u2013 Trump and Xi have agreed that China will help resolve the Iran war. If Xi got anything positive regarding Taiwan, it has not been communicated, but Trump’s response to questions is to pretend he doesn’t know what Taiwan is, so it was probably discussed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There seems to be a lot of trade agreements and investments \u2013 congratulations USA, we in the EU tried all through 2025 but China was not interested. The USA does what is good for them and is, just like the bank, not our friend, as someone might say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before the end of May, Putin is supposed to fly to Beijing to meet Xi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And then Trump has another visit this year, it would be exciting (meaning worrying) if Putin and Trump go to Beijing at the same time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As thanks for the ceasefire on May 9, Putin has now launched one of the larger missile attacks of the war against Ukraine, and it seems UA did not shoot down many of the missiles. This probably has to do with Trump holding back Patriots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Then 205 on the site johanno1.se has a daily report on the number of attacks \u2013 this may be due to the ceasefire but from May 8 to May 12 (there was a pause in the middle) UA attacks have been around 100 and fluctuate a bit below RU’s, as theirs have decreased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If this holds for a while, these were the dates for the start of UA offensive operations but we need another week. UA themselves no longer communicate anything, so no internet disruptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now Latvia’s government and parliament have just fallen \u2013 according to themselves, it was the aftermath of two Ukrainian drones hitting some combined heat and power plant or similar that crashed the government \u2013 if you don’t have a government, can you invoke Article 5 then?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Belarus has had 42 defense exercises just during May 2026, Lukashenko constantly talks about war and they have mobilized reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Besides that, they have built defenses against Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We laughed a lot at Belarus in 2022\u20132023 but they have been trained by former Wagner veterans since 2023, and also practiced drone warfare in 2026, so they are probably quite capable now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is unlikely that Belarus would go to war, but they act as an anchor to prevent UA from attacking northwards and then a threat to Poland \u2013 so Putin can rampage in the Baltics in peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That was that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2nd Armored Brigade from the USA was supposed to arrive in Poland soon for rotation but it has been canceled, it was 4,000 strong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.defensenews.com\/news\/your-army\/2026\/05\/13\/us-army-abruptly-cancels-deployment-of-4000-soldiers-to-poland<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

You can see where US soldiers are stationed in the link below but it is only in Germany and Poland that the USA is withdrawing personnel at the moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/articles\/where-are-us-forces-deployed-europe<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Poland, it is the only ground combat brigade that is leaving, and it seems the 5,000 from Germany are the Stryker Brigade, which was the only combat ground unit they had in Germany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/vilseck-germany-a-town-on-edge-over-us-troop-withdrawal\/a-77081982<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

So they are removing the American spearhead in the Baltic area for those who did not understand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You know what I think about the Baltics but regardless of that, Europe must quickly fill this gap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The size of the “tripwire” in the Baltics is a few thousand, and Germany has not yet deployed its mechanized brigade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have the impression that our Swedish battalion is back and will rotate out this summer?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the subject, our defense forces have praised the Aurora exercise as a major capability boost and some armored scouts received training in drone warfare, which instantly doubled our drone strike capability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now some Ukrainian who was on the red team revealed that the Swedish unit had to stop the exercise three times and restart because we got beaten so badly \u2013 called a silver medal in war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

All Swedish defense Twitter users call this a Russian influence operation, so they make a double mistake \u2013 first overestimating their own capability and then not even wanting to accept the criticism. This has been tried many times throughout world history, rarely with good results for anyone other than one’s opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now this is the third or fourth exercise since 2025 where Ukraine crushes NATO units and shocked colonels say we apparently have a lot to learn \u2013 I don’t believe for a second that the Ukrainian is lying, he was probably also fair in his criticism because he got good food during the visit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sweden is probably quite far ahead compared to many countries in Europe, so it is hard to deny that we are absolutely not ready for war in a drone-saturated combat environment in Europe 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have long wondered why Europe has not sent units to Ukraine that have learned, but that is not the whole problem. For quite a while, we were not even interested in Ukraine teaching us around Europe either \u2013 it probably started sometime in 2025 or so?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We felt we wanted to continue training them instead until Ukraine got tired because we had nothing more to teach, so they stopped sending units to us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What will break this Golgotha march is when fire-and-forget interceptor drones are out in the units, but they are not there yet for a while \u2013 I guessed this fall but the snail pace right now suggests that is wildly optimistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, you have to get the weapon\/ammunition in sufficient quantity, then it has to be taught, and finally distributed to the units. Ukraine discovered quite quickly in MENA that what they thought was simple fire-and-forget technology crashed completely when soldiers without practical experience tried to use them \u2013 training was required.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian “unmanned systems forces” are probably around 100,000 strong today, and we got beaten by a Ukrainian drone group or two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On top of that, RU has proven capacity to launch about 500 Geran drones every other day, which we also have no countermeasures against.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As this develops with Trump and Putin at Xi’s this year, the upcoming financial crisis and a real threat to the Baltics in some form \u2013 you know my guess, try to get an answer from us just as the financial crisis hits and then capital flees risk, there is only one thing for Europe to do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have one game left until we don’t have it anymore, so it has a deadline \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deploy our units in the Baltics before the Russians get there, we simply have to take the hit. Mechanized units are rolling coffins, so SOF, rangers and light units \u2013 the infantry’s revenge and old Norrland shooting will feel like princes that they can finally look down on Sk\u00e5ne armor after 80 years of mocking Sk\u00e5ne people in black berets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Start digging in along the border and mine like crazy \u2013 if Finland could do it during one autumn before the Soviets attacked, we can do it too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Completely ignore all discussions about ceasefire in the Ukraine war and agree with Zelensky that the further their offensive reaches east in Ukraine, the more money and materiel they get, an exponential curve.<\/p>\n\n\n

If we don’t do this within months, we will have done the classic of first saying “if you want peace, prepare for war” and then not making any preparations at all and standing there very surprised when the war came to us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we have rotated our battalion in place, it shall stay, and when the Danes come, they stay too. Then send over our light battalion and all available rangers \u2013 then we will have done what Sweden can. I guess the rest will go to Finnish Lapland, Gotland, coup defense, and national defense?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finland, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, France, UK, Netherlands, send what they have available as well. Poland and Germany have Lithuania as their main responsibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have to dig in a bit inside from the border in eastern Latvia\/Estonia because it is an area the Baltics themselves cannot prioritize \u2013 they instead defend the areas where their larger cities are located.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe redirects our satellite reconnaissance to the area on the Russian side and UA assists with observation drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ATESH, UA SOF, and Russian liberation fighters are allowed to conduct reconnaissance inside RU territory in the Pskov area. They can probably get help from Russian-speaking Baltic rangers in UA uniforms just so it doesn’t become an embarrassing parade on TV if they are captured.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When they identify targets, Ukraine can strike them as part of their drone attacks \u2013 there are currently depots and units hidden in the area on the Russian side, and if you can start wearing them down, it always does something.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine has struck targets in the Pskov area at least three times, so they are probably already assisting the Baltics, and maybe it’s underway, who knows?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For RU to cross the border, they need to advance, and what still works on a drone-saturated battlefield in 2026 is infantry in well-built defenses, preferably in forested terrain \u2013 I think all serious analysts have drawn that conclusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If RU has directly available say 20,000 \u2013 50,000 troops, then our units will act as a deterrent and raise the threshold, forcing them to move units from the northern front, which can be seen on satellite and immediately spread in the media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They also don’t have a lot to spare if Ukraine keeps up the pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we then don’t have a ceasefire in Ukraine, maybe this can work, but it probably won’t be so fun for the front line \u2013 but the whole narrative where RU infiltrates into undefended terrain and first flatly denies it and then claims it’s Baltic liberation fighters disappears because they strike directly against our defense a few kilometers inside the border and the whole world knows they started a war against us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have decided that NATO’s Article 5 will be a big nothing-burger, first NATO will not be able to agree because the USA, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Turkey will not vote in favor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then a couple of countries will immediately see the chance to back out \u2013 “all or none, we are ready but only if everyone else joins.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Several countries have elections today, big political problems, or no government at all \u2013 Denmark, UK, Sweden (soon), and Latvia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A bunch of countries must vote in their parliaments to send troops, I think it’s Germany, Denmark, Finland, Norway, USA. Government coalitions with small majorities mean it can be voted down in the worst case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Sweden, we can send everything except conscripts, but then the government’s 24 ministers must vote in a meeting and there are four parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the whole setup is reactive, this will end with Russian units having had time to go on an excursion a few miles straight into the Baltics and then dig in, mine everything again, and build a defense we will never get through before the necessary decisions are made, so the messages from all countries’ Chiefs of Defense will then be that it would be absolute suicide to even try to retake the terrain \u2013 pop balloon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides that, the units have to get into the Baltics when Suwalki is closed and the Baltic Sea fleet is out at sea bobbing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only game we have left is to get enough units into the area now so RU realizes that they will have to fight their way forward a kilometer inside the border and that it will then be full war with us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It will be exciting to see what our elected representatives around Europe actually choose to do, I am a bit bruised after four years of war in Ukraine but now after all it is our own security we are talking about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And above all the whiplash injury from the accident \u2013 that capital flees risk in Europe when the crisis hits this autumn, because capital does not like war then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you feel that a subscription to Substack was too steep, I would be grateful if you share the posts instead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A lot is happening \u2013 Trump and Xi have agreed that China will help resolve the Iran war. If Xi […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4870","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"\nIf you want peace, you must prepare for war, May 15, 2026 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/if-you-want-peace-you-must-prepare-for-war-may-15-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"If you want peace, you must prepare for war, May 15, 2026 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A lot is happening \u2013 Trump and Xi have agreed that China will help resolve the Iran war. 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