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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nHow does he know it has started, and why is Johan No.1 writing in English on this special day when he is in the Caribbean, shouldn’t it be Spanish or Creole?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We had a long discussion on johanno1.se which has been up before \u2013 in UA reporting, unlocalized battles were increasing so much that in total they surpassed the Russian ones at some point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Some didn’t quite dare to believe it was a UA offensive, so I had to ask Sirsky to clarify to reach a conclusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/4125167-ukrainian-offensive-actions-surpass-russian-attacks-for-first-time-syrskyi-says.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n At the same time as 205 could post a ratio of attacks favoring UA over 1, Sirsky confirmed that their attacks were more than the Russians’ \u2013 case closed and on to the next question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Is this a Ukrainian spring offensive or not, media writes nothing about major offensives or Ukrainian offensives \u2013 is Johan No.1 wildly fantasizing as usual?<\/p>\n\n\n\n If we have the same yardstick as we had with the Russians, this is what the number of Russian attacks looked like when the media talked about a Russian offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since UA attacks have been up to 133, the answer is \u2013 yep, the Ukrainian spring offensive has started.<\/p>\n\n\n\n You no longer hear or read anything because UA has kept completely silent. They are running a full clam right now; they were this secret recently in some operation on the southern front. They have learned the hard way to keep quiet since we in Europe and the USA leaked everything we got to Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/kyivindependent.com\/inside-a-mission-to-liberate-russian-occupied-territory-in-ukraines-south<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n It is thus time to declare that this year’s offensive operations from the blue team have started and that the start was somewhere between May 8 \u2013 May 12, there was a ceasefire in the middle which Trump forced them into so Putin could have a quiet May 9 celebration as is proper. Historians will use the dates again this year just like in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But it’s better than 2023 when I saw a tweet from Defmon about Custer’s last stand after a whole night on cheap whisky and quickly declared the Ukrainian offensive start to be May 3-4. I’ve had to defend myself since then against a sea of lies even though the offensive did start around then, so saved by the bell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This year it is supported by solid data and Defmon has stopped posting, statistics don’t lie and can’t be misunderstood if one happened to find a forgotten bottle of whisky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n By the way, I have started a year without alcohol which is going well so far, the step before that was to only buy a few beers because if I had more I drank more but now we are upping the stakes to just mineral water and it has worked surprisingly well as long as I have a snus to suck on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Stepnohirsk and the Ukrainian miracle that RU probably hasn’t understood yet was last (again) in the post about the Azov push?<\/p>\n\n\n\n RU has thus deployed two entire VDV divisions in the area and is losing the town of Stepnohirsk. But it doesn’t end there, they are pressing directly south.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Here you have a slightly better analysis than mine \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now you naturally read the previous post but RU VDV are the ones who are supposed to be task forces during RU defensive warfare but have already taken hits during RU offensive operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is what it looks like according to Mohlin, Orihiv is the anchor eastward that holds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And Project Owl over RU units, the whole gang at the top has thus retreated from Prymorske 10 km south and now lost Stepnohirsk. That was after they fought their way towards Prymorske \u2013 high probability that none of the regiments are in good shape including reconnaissance and Spetsnaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I have been wondering for quite a while why.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Why choose the same place where you bled out in 2023 because it was the best fortified area on all fronts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n RU has not fortified well when they are on their own offensive but I think I have figured out the logic behind this seemingly illogical action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In defensive warfare, VDV hides deep and is a task force that makes life miserable for everyone, now UA got a bit lucky that they went first so they simply chose to attack where VDV was to decimate them \u2013 it’s probably that simple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n RU has different levels of units and VDV has long stood as task forces or been deployed where success is wanted, there are also a couple of TR and MRR that are okay besides Spetsnaz, reconnaissance, and special units like FSB, GRU, or some prioritized Rosgvardia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But to get at two VDV divisions with some reconnaissance and Spetsnaz is big game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n To finally take Pokrovsk, they used up the 76th GAAD, 7,000 strong, and now these two VDV divisions are seriously on the decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Behind the southern front, there is not much more to take and UA has fire control over all access routes so further reserves cannot be brought in unless Putin manages to get a new ceasefire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n You can be sure that Krasnov will try already this summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2022 \u2013 2023 we had constant discussions about RU losses and whether what was stated was KWIA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It turned out to be true after a couple of years even though I was of the opinion that it was only killed in action \u2013 which is partly true because quite a lot does not get into this verifiable figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Winter 2023, for example, 30% of the patients in hospitals there were for frostbite injuries and how big losses drone warfare at depth causes cannot be determined. When Ukraine blows up a large GRAU arsenal, it’s reasonably hundreds dead \u2013 the war’s most dangerous job, Russian depot worker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Glad we didn’t have to leave offensive statistics open for discussion \u2013 205 has very nicely captured this with data and we could see the breaking point even though UA officials keep quiet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Is it all GUR and an excitable corps commander?<\/p>\n\n\n\n No, Ukraine today has complete information superiority \u2013 they see every Russian and Russian commanders have delayed information transfer so they are always second to the ball.<\/p>\n\n\n<!– wp:image {"width":"396px","height":"auto","\n\n\n Summer 1940 in France, the chief of defense sat in his castle waiting for couriers so his staff heard about setbacks on the BBC before they had arrived by bicycle to the staff \u2013 he was fired for that, you couldn’t operate like that when the new black was Blitzkrieg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n His replacement was some ancient general who was in Syria and was flown home in a hurry. He had to take over immediately and since he was not updated on the situation, he stopped his predecessor’s order for a violent counteroffensive that had just started because he needed time to familiarize himself with the situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n When the ancient general after a few days gave the order for his own massive counteroffensive, exactly the same battle plan as his predecessor’s which he had stopped by the way, the war was already over as the Germans were in Paris.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The French had more soldiers, more and better tanks, more and better aircraft, a Maginot Line, a British expeditionary force, the Belgian defense forces but above all their elan \u2013 the French were generally regarded as a formidable opponent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They were simply outmaneuvered except for Charles de Gaulle and his armored division who fought where it was most needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Information is king and Ukraine comfortably has it in their back pocket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Their digital battlefield, apparently called Delta but formerly “Uber for artillery,” is so good that various senior officers from the USA have in turn blissfully exclaimed that it is better than their own \u2013 having a kill-chain you can hit when needed makes you a winner. Now Russia has it too thanks to China solving the Gordian knot for them but it is not as good and Ukraine suppresses their indirect capabilities and information platforms in a constant whack-a-mole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They fight with traditional mechanized forces because they have their own anti-drone umbrella, EW, and their own drone weapon; it is a highly mobile fight once they get going.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They can use artillery, JDAMS, ground attack, army aviation, and the drone weapon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Drones today exist in all forms including autonomous AI drones which they have begun to launch from carriers (“motherships”) to get longer range on them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So why is Stepnohirsk this war’s Little Big Horn?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russian special forces are heavily decimated and there is not much left in depth behind the southern front and the Dnieper front apart from some BARS units which are probably more like regiments but now battalion strength since they have been merged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n “The Road of Death” \u2013 Ukraine now has total fire control over incoming roads from the east beyond Berdyansk\/Mariupol.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Even vehicles just inside the Russian side near Taganrog have been seen burning by the roadside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yes, Putin used the May 9 ceasefire to bring forward supplies and reinforcements (damn Trump) but overall it makes no difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The area has been heavily pre-bombarded so that radar, air defense, and the Black Sea Fleet are as rare as a kingfisher in winter nowadays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine can use its own air force from the Dnieper front and a bit eastward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Their drone weapon has full fire control and sees everything +100km deep, some can maneuver as far as 150km.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since Russian special forces are now depleted, there will sooner or later be a breach somewhere, you all read the post about the Azov thrust closely followed by Operation Rostov, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then Putin has only one measure left \u2013 to try to rush in reinforcements, Crimea is cut off since the bridge is impassable and the ferries sunk so his units must band from Mariupol which gives him a Kuwait highway 2.0, there is no other end to that dance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine can cross the Dnieper north of Khakovka since the river is like a small pleasant summer brook now and in addition, brush has grown in the area so they can move under cover \u2013 as soon as they are over, the CAA chief for the Dnieper must try to get units there, again up and banding on the highway with much death.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hopefully the army commanders do as they are told by Gerasimov until it no longer works.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then when the area falls, the swarm will head east instead with the same violent drone street race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The spring offensive 2023 failed because the USA, Europe, and UA parliamentarians leaked the battle plans to Putin, not necessarily in that order.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The USA also stopped reasonable battle plans, demanded they attack a 10km deep minefield, must use units trained in Europe because we were the best and also fight according to NATO doctrine despite lacking air superiority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then in the autumn some elected officials in Europe could not hold back, “now that they have learned it hurts maybe they will agree to a ceasefire” \u2013 this was a hidden agenda among some who thought Ukraine should give up because Putin had said he wanted a ceasefire but Ukraine refused. Everyone wanted peace except the stubborn Ukrainians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It took Ukraine three years to lick their wounds and prepare, and it was also a knife-edge fight with Trump trying to politically topple Zelensky throughout 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Kursk offensive also made the West completely mad so the pressure was probably hard on Zelensky to stop invading Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The upside now in 2026 is that Ukraine \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Mostly got angry and wanted to retaliate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Doesn’t tell anyone what they are planning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Doesn’t take orders from anyone when bribes like EU membership and other fun things are dangled in front of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n