We have now delved deeply into Ukraine’s upcoming jackpot to a point where it is difficult to discuss it any further than we already have; this week we will go through the fronts, but only light blue with soothing elevator music in the background.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As said \u2013 read the maps as if the gray zone is where UA currently stands since they are on the offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are some geographical problem areas, but they are only a visit away from the strategic offensive reserve to no longer be so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Today we discuss possible counterfire from the USA\/China, what Russia might come up with in its death throes, but also what we are undertaking from the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stuff like this makes me tearful \u2013 they are apparently called the E3 now, Merz, Starmer, and Macron. They want to try to negotiate with Putin to avoid “another winter full of terror bombings against Ukraine”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
https:\/\/euromaidanpress.com\/2026\/06\/04\/germany-france-and-uk-sketch-plan-to-bring-putin-to-the-negotiating-table<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n It sounds commendable, but considering that Ukraine has already had 4.5 years of this and wants to fight \u2013 why this concern for the children right now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Merz and Starmer have no history, but Macron managed to fool Zelensky before the war started that Putin would not attack because he “personally talked to Putin who gave me personal rock-solid guarantees.” His greatest achievement on his CV is thus being totally fooled by Putin in broad daylight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n No one likes Kier Starmer, a weak leader who has given bad times in the UK \u2013 his domestic political problems are worse than he can handle, so no Eisenhower directly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Merz sometimes says the right things, but besides his CEO for Rheinmetall trash-talking Ukraine’s drone weapons earlier this year, Merz recently stated that Ukraine should not become a full member of the EU \u2013 he thinks they do not deserve it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/volodymyr-zelenskyy-rejects-friedrich-merz-proposal-associate-eu-membership<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite this, apparently it is at the top of these world leaders’ agenda to protect Ukrainian children this winter. That there is a whole underground lake of various hidden agendas we can assume.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This gives us a timeline and what they want \u2013 a stop to hostilities until winter, why exactly until winter I think I have figured out below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n (Interjecting again that the EU gave just under 500,000 Russians Schengen visas in 2025 \u2013 our borders are not closed at all. Russia was in fourth place in visas after China, Turkey, and India. A quick Google confirms this if you lack a source).<\/p>\n\n\n\n A bit further down in the article it gets considerably brighter, not everyone in the EU agrees, there are shining white lights who understand the situation too, I think they read Johan No.1<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cSome officials from within the E3 nations themselves argue it is not the time for talks with Moscow, as Putin has shown no sign of being serious about negotiations and continues to harbor maximalist demands, including that Ukraine cede unoccupied territory.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Those same people said Kyiv’s allies should instead exploit this moment to provide Zelenskyy with the weapons he needs and further ramp up pressure on the Kremlin by tightening and toughening sanctions. The E3 should be working with the US to get Russia to the table, the Bloomberg sources stressed, as the problem is in Moscow, not Kyiv. European nations should not be the side petitioning Putin to talk \u2014 it should be the other way round, given Russia’s increasing economic struggles and staggering monthly casualty rates\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Since Ukraine will now inexorably advance like an exponentially rising moon rocket, there is nothing on the Russian battlefield that can stop them anymore, the balance is shifted and Russia is hopelessly behind in the strategic drone war, the drone weapon, and ground battles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Previously Europe and the USA could steer development with arms deliveries as a gas and brake, unfortunately we no longer have that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n After that it was cold cash, but funds have now been added so it is enough. Then Ukraine has probably received piles of gold bars from various countries in MENA as thanks for their drone interceptor packages including personnel delivered. On top of that many want to do business with Ua’s arms industry today \u2013 something that can no longer be politically controlled that the Ukrainian bastards have found new ways to snatch money in some kind of market economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There is only one big threat left to the development that otherwise exponentially goes in the right direction \u2013 ceasefire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Putin is tricky \u2013 I cannot determine whether he understands the situation or not, probably the information flow is filtered quite heavily up the chain and as of May 9 he got his damn ceasefire again which is proof for him that Ukraine does as they are told by his buddies in the West. But he should also understand where this is heading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At least Putin has left the point that he wants Donetsk, Zaporizha, and Kherson in their entirety, now it seems it is only the rest of Donetsk that Ukraine must abandon to get world peace?<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/putin-says-russia-will-defeat-ukraine-2026-06-04<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n This is something Putin-Trump agreed on in August 2025 when they met in Anchorage, but Ukraine has so far refused.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/trump-tells-zelenskiy-that-putin-wants-more-ukraine-urges-kyiv-make-deal-2025-08-16<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Since the E3 have already opened the negotiation book for Putin and pointed out what they want to achieve, he knows very well what he can do, the practical idiots make it easy for him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The E3 also have the only negotiation card worth its name left to play against Ukraine \u2013 EU membership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The concern is therefore the following \u2013 at some point Putin has completed his puzzle and understands that he is on the way to getting beaten in a fair war in Ukraine, period. Exactly when we get there cannot be said, but Ukraine will increase the pressure from now on so that at some point something breaks somewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What Budanov and Zelensky really want is the following \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Take back Ukraine from the barbarian horde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Let Belarus have its statutory international freedom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Make the six provinces bordering Ukraine friends with trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Get -stan on the right side (in progress).<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Get many sub-republics to proclaim themselves as new internationally recognized countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Voila \u2013 the future Russian threat is considerably more toothless. Unless we reach this point, the Russian threat is not eliminated, and this opportunity that Ukraine has paid for in children’s blood will never come again in our lifetime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Johan No.1 dreams of Operation Rostov but then Ukraine, as one man, woman, or other established gender identity, must be ready for a Finnish continuation war after 4.5 years of high-intensity war where they must get Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan on board.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What Putin will first try is to personally go to the E3 and promise to start serious negotiations \u2013 but that it must begin with a full ceasefire in the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There Ukraine’s momentum is lost \u2013 the mosaic where everyone pulls in the same direction will become significantly looser, power struggles will start, stab-in-the-back legends will be written, and in the middle of it all stand the FSB, SVR, GRU with their subversive activities and totally tear everything apart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine will naturally refuse \u2013 what will the E3 do then, the only thing they have left is probably EU membership and when it starts being written in the media that Zelensky does not want peace, then the Ukrainians will have to wait for their EU membership \u2013 good luck being Zelensky then.<\/p>\n\n\n How can Putin further pressure the E3 \u2013 unfortunately, there are many ways, but the gas weapon is probably the one with the most explosive power. After the Iran war, we are apparently behind in our stockpiling of LNG, 25% below average storage now in May. I usually get pushback on johanno1.se when I throw around numbers I get from AI, we\u2019ll see if this holds true or if it turns into a public backlash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since I am interested in everything, it seems we are going to have an “El Nino” winter this year, which will bring a very cold January \u2013 February in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Our gas is supplied 60%-65% by the USA, which so far has shown it does everything Putin asks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Middle East accounts for 9%-14%, which is probably zero now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Azerbaijan\u2019s gas, which has been heavily publicized recently, is under 4%, and then some from Nigeria and Algeria, 15%-20%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If Putin manages to get the USA not to sell us LNG at the pace we need and then we have some accidents in our LNG tank farms, this could become a good means of pressure \u2013 especially if both the USA and Russia promise to deliver everything we need as long as Ukraine agrees to a trivial ceasefire that everyone benefits from. Putin will surely promise a “peace discount for five years”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The entire E3 seems, as far as I can see, to be dependent on gas imports and have too little domestic production. All self-inflicted through suicidal politics over the last 30 years, but if you have the chance to sacrifice Ukraine because you have pursued foolish policies, it is an attractive way out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The UK seems to have domestic production for over 60%, and 85% of households are heated with gas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Germany is 100% import-dependent, 56% of households use gas for heating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n France is like Germany in imports but only 35% use it for heating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n France is an electricity exporter; in winter, the UK and Germany import less than 10% of their electricity needs \u2013 I think it seems like gas is our Achilles\u2019 heel?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Why the E3 is striving to save the Ukrainian children right now until winter is easy to see \u2013 a not-so-well-hidden agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Putin has also planted all the explosives he thinks he needs around Europe\u2019s subsea cables for electricity transmission now, but as far as I can see, it is not as big a threat to continental Europe as gas is?<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, the Baltics import 40%-50% of their electricity, where subsea cables dominate totally from Sweden and Finland. They also have direct electric heating for their heating just like us in Sweden, along with district heating and some other heat sources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since, for example, Poland recently asked Ukraine not to bomb targets in the Baltic Sea area, there are good reasons to believe that several countries in Europe would be affected by interruptions in gas imports in the coming months. Pushing for peace in Ukraine, which is preferable anyway, becomes politically attractive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What Poland has done well, however, is to de-escalate the dispute with Ukraine over that unit that got an inappropriate name.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/ua.news\/en\/world\/u-polshchi-zaklikali-ne-zagostriuvati-superechki-z-ukrayinoiu<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Since we absolutely seem to be heading towards a “2008-type financial crisis” this autumn, it adds another layer of acute war fatigue on our politicians who will have to handle the “wave of layoffs”, “bank crisis”, “crisis interest rates”. All those things that appear on newspaper front pages against a dark gray background, a red downward-pointing stock chart in the middle, and then “-35%” in pitch-black Arial font size 24.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine has been subjected to these high treasons for 4.5 years already and knows exactly what we morally superior in the West are capable of, but if the pressure is applied correctly, it will sting for them this year too \u2013 EU membership was why the country got into this war in the first place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It doesn\u2019t seem to stop there; the EU is throwing in an “800 billion USD” bribe as well but is clear that both EU membership and lots of pesetas entirely depend on whether there will be peace in our time or not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWhile Brussels and Washington are lining up hundreds of billions of dollars in long-term funding and pitching Ukraine as a future EU member and investment destination, the strategy hinges on a ceasefire that remains elusive \u2014 leaving the prosperity plan vulnerable as long as the fighting continues\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n