{"id":5193,"date":"2026-07-01T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-and-the-drone-weapon-1-july-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-07-02T06:30:39","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T04:30:39","slug":"ukraine-and-the-drone-weapon-1-july-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-and-the-drone-weapon-1-july-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine and the drone weapon, 1 July 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Life was more in the passing lane when, alone in the biting wind, one saw the potential in the world’s best shooting while everyone else thought Russia would be in Kiev in three days \u2013 headwinds strengthen, everyone who lives in Norrland north of Uppsala in the mosquito ghetto knows that. The number of bunglers who have said over the years that it would be trench warfare \u00e0 la WW1 and a “Korean peace” wouldn’t even fit in the Globe Arena.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now it is no longer possible to find any angles in the Ukraine war that a thousand other analysts haven’t already covered six lanes wide \u2013 in the end, everyone seems to have understood what separates the world’s best shooting from the Red Storm’s crutch shooting mixed with crawling shooting. They have shifted their position quietly and have always believed in the Ukrainian miracle. No one bothers to check what they wrote earlier, so they got their fresh start and can draw a divine salary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s also no use getting bogged down in domestic politics before the election because eight parliamentary parties are currently lying through their teeth about everything they will do better than everyone else if we just choose them \u2013 making the first 250,000 SEK tax-free is something no one likes even though it does more for low-paid workers and is a tax cut, so something both sides of the fence should like. That probably tells you something about politicians in general more than that they haven’t figured it out yet because when it comes to raising their own salaries and raking in various benefits, they never miss an opening \u2013 all politicians in all parties. I can somewhat think that when a capitalist lives as he teaches, it’s less lousy than when the defenders of the weak also do it as soon as they get the chance, but it’s just nuances on a pitch-black canvas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump’s rampages and the Iran war are also not worth getting into because everything is just constant disinformation. I sympathize with the people of Iran and wonder a bit if Israel is starting to be in a bad position but have also grown tired of it. Usually, the carousel during a week is; threat, peace, bombings, eternal peace, and then fighting everything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Complaining about Trump, Biden, Sullivan, Scholz, and Europe’s general betrayal until 2026 is also getting tiresome \u2013 we live in a world where no one is ever held accountable for this gang, and Ukraine has for some unfathomable reason managed to navigate all those mines and come out on top \u2013 it should have been impossible but they have shown time and again that it’s just a door waiting to be opened, and it is never locked. With some exceptions, ourselves in Sweden for example, many countries that out of pure self-preservation should have wholeheartedly supported Ukraine have dragged their feet and constantly looked for the best return on the blood sacrifices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s hysterically funny that Putin, despite all cheating, is going to lose his special operation. Kursk was really slippery \u2013 Trump didn’t mention it with a word, Putin refused to receive his negotiators in Moscow, Zelensky hesitates when he says it became unsustainable and UA retreated from all areas a few days before the negotiations between the USA and Russia were to begin. Then Putin goes to Kursk in uniform and struts around with a broad grin \u2013 he couldn’t manage to retake lost Russian land and had to cheat his way through it, very Russian.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Don’t forget the paid subscription \u2013 I’ll probably come up with something to write about again soon that will blow your socks off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Was named a financial genius in the thread on johanno1.se so there will be a post about what you should put all your savings in now in July \u2013 a real rocket promised just in time for retirement, as long as the stock markets keep heading for new highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I’ve squeezed everything out of the Russian escalation into the Baltics \u2013 the marker I am waiting for is if the US heavy battalion in Estonia is withdrawn, then the Russians will follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine is trying to topple Belarus, we’ve also run that on repeat with the whole process as the Russian empire where the sun never sets implodes to the tunes of Swan Lake in black and white. There will certainly be a post about that plan which may need to be reviewed a few more times since all analysts seem content with peace and ceasefire \u2013 I can guarantee it won’t stop there as soon as the opportunity arises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maybe I should start with model building, I’m getting tired of Rise of Nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From my seat in the stands, I really only see one threat to a Ukrainian smashing victory \u2013 that Putin agrees to a ceasefire and Europe is talked down so Ukraine is forced into it \u2013 the only remaining leverage is the EU membership, so Europe must not let itself be talked out of it. Then everything goes back to square one but I think Meloni and Macron are holding their style right now, especially Meloni is more than we thought.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nordics have no thought of anything like that \u2013 we want to see Russian blood in the water as many liters as we can get. The fact is that the country Sweden with its 10 million inhabitants is at the absolute top in all kinds of support and signal politics, I think we will gain a lot more respect in the EU and internationally after this. The next government, whoever it may be, should be careful not to tarnish this newly bought reputation which is extremely good for the country in every way. I have lived through the humanitarian great power, the negotiations with Palestine \u2013 Israel where our negotiator became persona non grata with both parties. Not to mention all possible major international projects that would have put us on the map but ended with us having to buy the highly coveted position in the UN with cash. The support for our blood brothers in Ukraine is considerably more low-key but the world sees what we do without laughing out loud \u2013 Sweden as a country is definitely on the rise in reputation and we must nurture it like a newly bought kebab with extra white sauce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin’s cautious peace overtures have already started to be mixed with claims that he is at war with Europe and NATO to underpin the upcoming conflict with the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump has just started up again about immediate peace and that everything is Ukraine’s fault as usual, pretty soon Ukraine will probably be the aggressor and Russia wants peace in our time to protect the children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Soon RU will probably also be sitting in the UN crying about all of Ukraine’s war crimes but if Europe does nothing beyond doing absolutely nothing, it won’t slow Ukraine’s path to a smashing victory. Doing nothing is usually our politicians’ specialty so we should be able to soft-land this runaway express train just before the station if Ukraine is allowed to manage themselves without us disturbing them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One must not forget that Ukraine is still paying for this in blood and that every meter is dearly bought. 3rd AC and their extent up in Lyman have had a couple of attempts that were brutally smashed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UA is supposed to lose 1:3 to 1:5 of RU losses but it is still several thousand per month \u2013 we must not forget this in the euphoria.<\/p>\n\n\n

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It has probably dawned on quite a few that Ukraine has created this war’s “wunderwaffen”. WWII with its “blitzkrieg” is the closest in time, but all major conflicts usually have a party that is quick to find something that works, and then they dominate geographically for quite a while.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Swedish Caroleans, the feared Spanish infantry, Macedonians, Roman legions who took everything they met on the battlefields and made it their own, and many more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The USA is just trying to steal Ukrainian technology and sell it themselves, but Europe seems to be fair, offering joint projects and buying in?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I believe Ukraine has done the following \u2013 a completely decentralized arms industry solely focused on functionality (dead Russian bastard) with a simple track to field test and deliver. They are open to everything, no lobbying from old weapons giants holding things back, and they pay their way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Probably the companies have a deal where they must sell in Ukraine first and at “Ukraine prices” and then, as a thank you, they get permission to try to sell their products internationally with the state’s help.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A fully competitive market economy and doing like the Romans \u2013 if you meet a weapon on the battlefield, retreat and immediately build your own copy which you improve to deliver a counterstrike 10 times worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only thing Ukraine really hasn’t managed to build is the advanced aircraft, which for a long time was the US ace up the sleeve to hold them back. Putin has completely shifted from artillery to FAB (fuel-air bombs) which are still protected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now Ukraine has at least built its own FAB \u2013 we know this weapon is terrible and a bunker killer. All Russian equipment is buried today, so welcome buried in boiling earth, Russian bastards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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They are also working on everything else \u2013 ICBMs, nuclear weapons technology, Patriot copies, and literally every type of missile and drone that has existed on the drawing board.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their drones are increasingly AI-controlled and one operator can now control thousands of drones \u2013 gone are the days when it was a quadcopter with a strapped-on hand grenade dropped through an open turret hatch by an operator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is how it feels on the receiving side now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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You also remember how it then became RPG grenades and direct hits, on a few occasions I suggested 155mm shells taped onto drones and was laughed at, but they have passed that and left several miles behind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Late 2022 or early 2023 I also once declared that the drone weapon would not become the new black \u2013 how wrong I was.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what is this new black drone weapon that I have always believed in so strongly?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is a completely new branch of weapons with the following functions \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– information gathering and target acquisition, today Ukraine has its own satellites and everything that looks down on the ground CAN have IR and direct coordinate acquisition on the screen. You no longer need to squint to find contours and guess approximate coordinates. You see a large bright red figure hobbling forward on crutches and the coordinates come up directly on the screen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– a kill-chain which we probably call the digital battlefield in Sweden? The information goes from detection where it is now sorted automatically and then to the appropriate weapon platform which is often the drone weapon. Ukraine started early with its “Uber for artillery”. Russia couldn’t manage to use its own platform before China stepped in to handle it for them, now today it is unfortunately serviceable. Ukraine has apparently cut its kill-chain to “seconds” according to themselves which probably means rapid fire on target, I guess under minutes?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zelensky tried to give Trump an iPad where they get all information in real time but he didn’t want it, it’s just the summaries, but when twelve-gauge shotgun users visited Ukraine and saw their digital battlefield centers, it blew their socks off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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“It’s better than what we have in the USA,” was said wide-eyed several times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Russia has tested us in Europe, we sometimes discover the drones by chance and then we can’t shoot them down, so pretty sure that “it’s better than what we have in Europe” also applies here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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– the drones. Today Ukraine has everything, FPV drones that create a fire control zone between 0km-50km operated by the brigades themselves and drone groups. Independent drone units that can quickly pool capabilities to a prioritized area where they bring everything on a bunch of pickups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Then came the “mid-range” a few months ago between 50km-250km and since it was rolled out as a new capability, it hit the Russian logistics hard. Exactly like when HIMARS came in 2022 and the US provided longer-range ammunition in stages so just as Russia, sweating profusely, moved all depots backward, they were knocked out again with new ammunition. This capability seems to be with the special forces and drone units?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back then it was the US making the target acquisitions and if you remember, many higher staffs were knocked out despite being constantly relocated. Today everything is buried in underground “cities” so it’s a bit harder but from time to time they get a hit on some slow CAA staff who wanted a sea view. Welcome homemade FAB, I say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The long-range drones and first missiles were in the air already in 2023 but Ukraine was constantly stopped. Quietly, they have built a whole palette of drones and missiles from old V1s to advanced cruise missiles that completely replace Tomahawks, Storm Shadow, and Taurus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All this costs pesetas instead of our “50 million missiles”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sometimes Zelensky used to say “we are building 10 million FPV drones this year and 2500 long-range ones per year” \u2013 what the numbers are today I don’t know but we see several times a week that they have enough \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UA has now passed a tipping point in several drone types where they have double or better than RU, and are still increasing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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EW \u2013 electronic warfare. It was long a joke when you saw some Russian standing with a futuristic rifle aiming at a drone flying into him unhindered, and Ukraine long chose kinetic countermeasures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now they have systems that work on all frequencies and are so effective that they have jammed many Zircon missiles which are Russia’s latest in the arsenal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Ukrainian EW weapon works.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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They were also early with acoustic warning systems that the USA now seems to be trying to copy besides many other systems so they basically have full control over incoming drone threats. Compare that with us in Europe, that Belgian or German army base where\n\n\n

We wrote about it when it happened even though everyone got upset that I praised Russian weapons \u2013 small drones that fit in a cassette on a handheld “rifle” we thought aloud would come, and we are probably almost there?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dirt-cheap fire-and-forget drones that have now surpassed 70% of shot down threats and can also combat incoming missiles, and absolutely slow Geran drones. The anti-drone drones seem to be effective little helpers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Radar in all its forms, small and large, where part of the chain is to log Russian drone groups and combat them lightning fast. For both Ukraine and Russia, the enemy’s drone groups are the highest priority to target, and Ukraine comes out on top.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Since Ukraine has all these capabilities fully integrated, they could quickly send drone groups down to MENA when Iran started bombing surrounding countries. They made such a big difference that the entire MENA immediately signed contracts at any price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine tried to quickly train local operators but it did not go very well \u2013 half the success lies in the person controlling the system, they understood quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is easy to see that AI-controlled drone swarms are one of the ways forward along with the anti-drone drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine is also experimenting with battlefield lasers and the new German LV akan is very effective, but they are large targets so everything handheld, cheap, and functional is preferable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All weapon systems on an expensive slow platform are mostly large targets unless they have very long range. For example, our CV90 GRK version certainly shoots fast but stands directly under the Russians’ FPV drone range and probably won’t last long in combat. Goodness, what a fuss there was on defense Twitter when I happened to say that to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Probably eventually there will also be very small AI drones with a warhead the size of a cartridge, it has been in the works for a while. They probably sit on “mother drones” and then release a cloud over a coordinate that buzzes into all openings and searches for targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The charm of the drone weapon is that it partly prevents traditional mobile warfare entirely but at the same time allows the fighting party that has the advantage in drone weapons to fight fully mechanized and mobile \u2013 somewhat of a paradox that we in Europe have not yet fully understood, I think. It is quite common to invest in a capability that has proven successful and then deprioritize everything else \u2013 I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Europe does exactly that going forward and thinks it can manage without mechanized forces as long as it has drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The drone groups Ukraine has sent to our exercises where the most infamous was Aurora 2026 are just some platoon with FPV drones so quite far from the most advanced they have if I understand this correctly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For two years we have been completely outmatched \u2013 during Aurora 2026 the exercise leadership finally had to remove the pesky Ukrainians so we could show how well prepared we are for war, just not against a scaled-down drone weapon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine is also doing this of course \u2013 they are building up all traditional capabilities and today basically have an entire defense force that is mechanized in some form, a mosaic of armored vehicles, artillery, infantry, LV, and air force. A brigade probably has a dozen different types of fragmentation protection but everything is good and they work with what they have. Solve the task, they said in the military service, and that eternal feeling that you never had enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You should not be fooled \u2013 any enemy that does not have a well-developed drone weapon is a fool, and we in Europe seem to be a few years away from having it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If there is a conflict, we will have to solve it with infantry and mines \u2013 it works but losses will be higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The best Europe can do is to temporarily pause large cost items like Spain’s aircraft carrier or Italy’s NATO expenses which also include bridges, or our huge surface combatant purchase from France.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then we build up the drone weapon from scratch with Ukrainian help and keep the air force and all ground combat capabilities \u2013 it is probably attractive not to have any ground combat capability at all and just invest in the drone weapon but we must do like Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then we are safe and can over time start building expeditionary capabilities for other conflict zones if we need to help our friends around the world when Trump, Putin, and Xi have divided the world into geographic slices among themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we seriously follow Ukraine’s lead and stop listening to lobbyists in the defense industry, we have probably reached the goal in two years \u2013 it is a ready and well-tested concept so we only need to buy, train, and deploy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Apparently, there is bubbling in the Russian army, it is not psyops but it is the OSINT sources we have learned to trust over time posting from Russian forums where different units have started threatening Putin with revolution. History repeats itself, maybe…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I will circle back to this when we have a bit more information to go on and then a post about Ukraine’s real plan \u2013 the whole “negotiate peace” is probably just for show, they intend to topple the country Russia before this is over. They have repeatedly told us this if you have listened and now Zelensky has managed to reveal that they have a plan for Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ball is rolling, we are definitely at the beginning of the end now, that is indisputable but can we give Putin a cheat victory again?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, if Europe lets itself be talked out of it because the US is holding back all LNG this fall. To protect ourselves, we threaten Ukraine with withdrawal of EU membership if they do not accept a necessary ceasefire and peace in our time to save the children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the EU and Europe will not stand united at all on that issue so probably that attempt will fail which has now been paved the way for if you have read previous posts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hardest thing is to penetrate the fog and understand how we in the West really think and act. Ukraine has been refreshingly honest and open since 2022 and I feel that our government over 4 years has been clear even though the US betrayals were long concealed. For example, when we were not allowed to send our Gripen a few years ago, it was easy to see through the excuses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Around Iran, the Kurds have started fighting the IRGC, Iraq has had a purge of pro-Iranian elements in the country and the US is building up enormous new capabilities \u2013 not everything is signed peace treaties and world peace there, but you have to try to guess as best you can.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Xi Jinping has also said interesting things recently, since it is Putin who is putting pressure on Lukashenko it can only be him who is meant \u2013 have we got trouble in paradise?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/belarus-lukashenko-meets-chinas-xi-beijing-talks-2026-06-29<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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