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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nIn RU\u2019s latest drone attack on Ukraine, the defense shot down 98% of the drones, there you go.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Belarus EXILE GOVERNMENT commented that Ukraine has drone-struck targets in Belarus. These are relay stations for drones. Lukashenko was probably forced to turn them on by Putin for this operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This speaks volumes \u2013 the first targets in Belarus and the opposition leader, whatever her name is, recently visited Ukraine. Now it is a full exile government that comments and stands firm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One must not forget that the citizens of Belarus largely want to free themselves from the dictatorship and interrogations that end in torture-death, to instead move closer to the EU just like Ukraine did.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Besides that, Crimea is soon blacked out and dried up, the refineries continue to burn, and if the heat moves over Ukraine seriously from continental Europe, which it seems to do, Russian soldiers will become very thirsty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They currently have poor supply deliveries from the logistics due to all the drone attacks on road transports, and in the areas they defend, corpses lie close together, so when they try to drink from puddles, they get sick. The choices are to die of thirst or cholera.<\/p>\n\n\n\n “It is not over until it’s over,” as they say, and a Russian saving grace is to hope that Ukraine is forced to a ceasefire if Putin agrees to it. We are not there yet, but that card will of course be played with Trump’s and China’s eager encouragement for world peace if it gets tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now we are entering the realm of rumors, so don’t take this completely at face value, but the elite are getting tired of the war and have given Putin an ultimatum \u2013 do as Russia has always done and increase the level of violence if the current level of violence doesn’t work so that we get an end to this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is easy to see that Putin is painted into a corner without a clear way out right now, and when Ukraine increases the pressure, his only option is to also increase it. He has a good grip on the FSB, so the above is probably a compromise, “okay, we understand you can’t admit defeat, so increase instead until you find a way out that is viable for you.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n Putin has a few options to choose from \u2013 mobilization and increasing pressure in Ukraine, tactical nuclear weapons, bringing Belarus into the war, or attacking the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Svalbard is probably also on the list, but that wouldn’t resonate with the masses the same way as teaching NATO a lesson would.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Putin needs an off-ramp, and Ukraine does not offer that at all, which is starting to make Putin really cornered \u2013 that is when dictators are most dangerous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n From what we can see today, all options are bad except possibly the Baltics, which admittedly is not good either, but this is a dictator fighting for his physical survival right now, so anything is better than dangling on the gallows, deeply marinated in diesel, praying to idols that the rabble has Russian matches that don’t work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The elite naturally have a plan B if needed \u2013 blame everything on Putin, expose him, and end the war. However, there is probably no shortage of hawks in the Russian administration, and especially the FSB stands on Putin’s side, so Plan B comes with the highest risk for those involved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Recently, a gentleman who was previously proposed as Putin’s successor suddenly died but had also recently criticized the war \u2013 Putin’s claws still scratch is probably the only conclusion one can draw from this?<\/p>\n\n\n\n China has built up RU’s digital battlefield and fairly soon they will probably have to start delivering anti-drone technology that works to protect Russia against the aggressor Ukraine. China likes the war because everyone weakens except them; probably they are not fully supportive of a big win for Ukraine and will support with what they think they can get away with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you accept the position that the USA-Russia-China have planned escalation in seven steps already, it becomes a bit easier to understand all of Trump’s antics, I think. JD Vance was in Munich provoking us, Zelensky was humiliated in the White House, and when Trump closed Hormuz, he accused Europe of doing nothing at all, only actively opposing his quest for world peace. It became a bit extra delicate when Iran wanted Hormuz open and Trump immediately promised to close it \u2013 it was hard to navigate who did what there for a while.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For example, China has recently trained Russian soldiers in ABC warfare, feels like a couple of steps forward they are planning for, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The actions then become deliberate provocations and then immediately a highly planned counter-reaction to our reasonable and proportionate responses like “you huge bullies, you are not our friends,” often from Trump himself. This enormous grievance against the USA and Trump “justifies” then a lot of military cutbacks, punitive tariffs, or export bans for us in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Everything is then chopped up seemingly without any logic at all, but if you sit in Putin’s chair, it is instead a surgical scalpel that cuts away everything he does not like \u2013 the offensive units in NE Europe and LNG that will leave us powerless this winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Canada currently runs the most offensive unit in the entire Baltics, so the connection back to that and that Trump has gone hard on Canada is not entirely far-fetched actually if you have your new glasses on your nose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since it was Spain and Italy that did not want overflights and the Baltics instead are the USA’s biggest fanboys, it is hard to explain why everything was left in Spain and Italy but removed from the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, only until the point that one accepts that everything is a game with seven planned moves where Trump, Putin, and Xi hold the strings and card numbers on WhatsApp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For example, this \u2013 the Baltics offer to cover exactly all costs for US units in their countries, and also to buy only American weapons at an overprice. Exactly what Trump claims to want to achieve, but the units still disappear from the area faster than you can say Monday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Everything is always relative \u2013 if Russia does not have enough to open a conflict front in the Baltics today, maybe they will when the USA has withdrawn all its defense from the area?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then we have the “95% ocean difference” on this with Operation Baltic according to a unanimous readership. Now at least the Baltics are starting to sweat seriously and summer has only just begun even though it is warm, so that is probably why they are sweating when I think about it.<\/p>\n\n\n Since no one even dares to think the unthinkable, Putin can still fiddle with this as best he can between his sleep apnea attacks \u2013 there is no tripwire at all in the eastern Baltics to stumble over, so as far as Russia is concerned, it is almost impossible to keep oneself in check. That\u2019s actually how much I think we have learned since 2022?<\/p>\n\n\n\n We know with some certainty that RU intends to mobilize early autumn and in 2022 it made a difference of a few months. Today the entire skeleton is in place and all that is needed are new soldiers in the trenches, it will go faster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Lukashenko is under great pressure to project a threat to his neighborhood, war has probably never been seriously intended for Belarus and the meeting with Putin was to avoid shutting down the relay stations for the drones if I may guess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Putin probably threatened invasion for that audacity so Luka went over to Xi to cry it out, and China tried to be the adult in the room which is a positive in the context as it shows some friction on the away team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Exactly what will happen lies with Putin but you can safely assume that RU will escalate it \u2013 it is ingrained in the Russian DNA strand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Everything is always relative as I said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cRussia has not built up any capability at all against the Baltics\u201d vs \u201cthere is not a single international soldier between Rezekne and Tartu\u201d are two examples. There are no Balts there either because they have to mobilize first. Probably the border protection is in the hundreds and the area is completely open for infiltration that can reach the mob depots in Rezekne and V\u00f5ru where the Estonians\u2019 and Latvians\u2019 defense for the neighborhood will try to mobilize. Their mobile brigades will defend Daugavpils\/Riga and the Tallinn area. They must also have coup defense, mobile reserve and all that which taxes their few units.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Balts\u2019 Maginot line has not been built yet \u2013 tougher fieldwork is hard to find. It is drawn up and they have finished arguing about the thickness of the bunker walls, but it is not built. North of Tartu there is some but the area between Tartu – Rezekne is completely undefended. Clement Mohlin has actually gone through this and shown with satellite photos that nothing exists even though I based my assumption on a couple of articles on the subject so now I have full support from physical evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There is also enormous subversive activity in the countries already which they try to fend off as best they can, so if RU intends to attack they already have access to saboteurs inside the country for a twilight scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This will be an interesting year, some things you just have to accept you will never understand I guess \u2013 why the USA let Shiite militias from surrounding countries into Tehran for example and above all why we REFUSE to send in defensive defense into the Baltics who spend the summer mining the border area in SE Estonia and NE Latvia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Finland survived its Winter War 1939 by doing exactly that, the summer before everything that could be mobilized was mobilized and then it was hard work in the forest until the war started \u2013 they did not take chances and you should never do that with Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Almost a dereliction of duty this, at least a written reprimand should be given to those responsible that will follow them through life like a bad bitcoin purchase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We should probably put a bit of a warning on this but I have guessed that it roughly fits that the USA deviated from Israel\u2019s plan. Recently Trump and Netanyahu mostly argue when they talk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now that we got such a nice picture of JD Vance, we almost have to squeeze in that movie where he embarrasses himself during negotiations with Iran, a lightweight trying to fight heavyweight against an early Tyson.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The sanctions against the shadow fleet also seem to be going really well I must say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A ship that the entire West has full sanctions against sails past Denmark with Russian dirty oil and the only ones trying to follow the ship are Greenpeace. Fun that Greenpeace is involved though \u2013 good good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n