{"id":5269,"date":"2026-07-10T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-10T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/medium-or-high-risk-2-of-2-10-july-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-07-10T22:49:34","modified_gmt":"2026-07-10T20:49:34","slug":"medium-or-high-risk-2-of-2-10-july-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/medium-or-high-risk-2-of-2-10-july-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Medium or high risk, 2 of 2, 10 July 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This is how tired Putin was when he was live-playing commander-in-chief from inside a studio in a bunker under Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is roughly how I interpret the situation today,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe is starting to gain momentum REALLY and in 2-3 years we will be what Russia would interpret as an existential threat to them. Our rhetoric (which should be even more aggressive than today) is uncomfortable for Putin now and his tentacles to prevent what we have now set out to do are in many cases hanging loose, he is starting to lose grip in important countries like us in Sweden for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The USA and China don\u2019t like this either, Europe is supposed to be compliant consumers, not at war at all. Even though Trump said we should buy a lot of new weapons, he did not mean at all that we should manufacture them ourselves as we are now doing \u2013 that is the wrong path to take.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine is just a long downhill slope now for Putin where he can either tie himself to the mast and sink with the raft or try to come up with something else to wiggle out of the jam that is entirely self-inflicted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I will bring this up in a post soon because at the fronts there is nothing but Christmas joy, OPSEC prevails but I still get direct info from Zelensky on WhatsApp, 90th TD is having trouble, in Lyman a scope is forming, at Kamyanske UA is advancing and 2-3 more places have light blue and soothing elevator music.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The USA is preparing the ground for a weak Baltics, they are pulling back all units and promising new ones, which are not there yet. Promising new ones in the “near future” is probably an attempt to lull us back to sleep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The same with UA patriot license, we calm down but interceptors in the tubes are a year away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My marker for conflict in the Baltics has triggered \u2013 the American heavy battalion in Estonia. This happened completely without fanfare or announcements and they left about two months before they were supposed to rotate out anyway according to Google AI. For me, this is a burglar alarm sounding without yet seeing the signs of the break-in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin has several choices to make and whether he has decided yet I do not know. Poland’s outburst a while ago was “we know what plans you have, don\u2019t try”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now Putin must make a couple more moves before it becomes open conflict, if it does \u2013 the Baltic fleet cannot lie at the quay for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We will then also see some movement of operators on the Russian side of the border which is what the Baltics will see and warn about but in terms of “few”. Sabotage is also increasing along with drone overflights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And lastly \u2013 Ukraine will warn about units preparing to move at the northern border, but they can never be sure exactly where they will go. Probably a march order is spread for Belarus or the southern front and then the day before they get the coordinates to some staging area over by the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far everything is at such a low level that our politicians can say “we wait and see” when they answer the phone from the cabin in the archipelago during the summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin will until the last moment say that everyone is moving to Belarus or will “roll over Kramatorsk in a huge red wave”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

False flag \u2013 probably not needed, we are probably past that already. Maybe all the chatter about Ukrainian drones flying through the Baltics towards St Petersburg was a false flag but we didn\u2019t understand it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s task is evidently to pull away everything he can from the Baltics, Poland and Germany. Really only fighter jets and air defense left as far as I understand of what Putin absolutely does not want to see in the area?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only countries still seriously buttering up Trump are the Baltics and they are losing all protection. The countries he is most upset with, for example Spain \u2013 there he lets all units remain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He has not managed to get the Canadian-led brigade but there is some suspicion that Spain\u2019s heavy battalion might disappear, I have checked but find nothing. Trump is at least arguing as much with Spain as with Canada right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then he must try to convince Europe that a ceasefire in Ukraine is necessary so the pressure on Russia eases, even if it is only temporary for a month or two. Maybe even a timed ceasefire to start with?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His last task before he can rest is what finance in the USA is always eager for anyway \u2013 exploit the upcoming 2008-style financial crisis to hit Europe as hard as possible economically. It is really enough to just stop exporting LNG to us and we will crash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A combo where China holds back what we need for our industrial production would otherwise make us crash if LNG alone is not enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is what I believe we have ahead of us regarding Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if Putin is starting to look over the abyss, that dog still has some bites left I am quite sure, it could be an expensive lesson to believe that Putin\u2019s balloon has already deflated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think you should read this, found it the day before yesterday and it is completely in line with what I have seen so far. These analyses get about as much impact as my texts, zero and nothing \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/news.inbox.lv\/1507c7s-already-in-august-military-analysts-described-a-possible-scenario-for-russia-s-invasion-of-the-baltics<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we now move on to a post-Baltics scenario, Putin will swear on his honor that the Baltics were his last legal special operation and offer us all the oil and LNG we can eat at a big “peace discount”. Trump does the same from the USA, for peace in our time we avoid all trade tariffs (which he pulled out of the hat), we get “bail-outs” (after the financial crisis he created), all American units will come back immediately (which he pulled away) and the LNG\/oil tap is turned on again (which he shut off). As a bonus he promises never to invade Greenland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But if we choose war we get nothing \u2013 then tariffs increase, no one will sell LNG to us at all and especially the Germans will get no gas at all as punishment for all the gas they wasted during World War II.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China is probably involved too and dangles something attractive over us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Somewhere around there we will get a receipt for who we have chosen for our governments. Russia is probably most worried that Sweden and Finland have already found their inner Vikings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But we avoid all this if we bury our light infantry in eastern Baltics today, then we own the situation and everyone else must try to counter us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus shall project a threat against Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania to tie down troops. Russia will possibly use Belarus for logistics and run in-out missile systems fired from inside Russia. It seems I have to clarify this every time because far too many still believe that the conflict will flare up from Belarus and then it is not credible. That was already the case in autumn 2025 when I started writing about Operation Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n

Belarus has already partially mobilized and closed areas at the borders with Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania; they are trying to project a threat that is no threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most recently, Russia closed all border crossings with the Baltic states indefinitely. Everyone is shouting mobilization, but there can of course be several reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/ukranews.com\/en\/news\/1160640-russia-closed-railway-checkpoints-on-border-with-finland-estonia-and-latvia-from-today<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin has a decision to make and it is probably not made yet, but it is not the first time in history that Europe chooses to sit quietly when neighbors are frantically preparing for war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zelensky made that mistake in February 2022 after strong pressure from Macron and Merz, and it almost cost him the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only chance for Putin to succeed somewhat is to keep Poland out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Germany and Poland have both promised to defend Lithuania to the last Lithuanian soldier, the mechanized brigade is half in place, and Poland is training to keep the Suwa\u0142ki Gap open.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus projects violence as much as they can when Lukashenko does not project friendship so that Zelensky does not overlook him, so the Germans, Poles, and Lithuanians need to have defense along the line Lublin, Bialystok, Vilnius, and possibly up to Daugavpils?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then they need to defend the Suwa\u0142ki Gap and against Kaliningrad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin has no intention of setting foot south of the Daugava.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As soon as it blows up, civilians from Estonia and Latvia will drive south, making movement even more difficult.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There, Poland and Germany probably think they have done their part once they have gone on the defensive and are handling refugee flows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since not a shot will be fired from Belarus or Kaliningrad, it is up to Poland how they want to act, but they have a president who is commander-in-chief and likes Putin. I am not so sure they will push over Kaliningrad, but we will see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin also stays away from the Gulf of Finland to avoid angering Finland, and since a few hundred thousand Russians are soon training in bases along the Finnish border, Finland feels they have also done their part.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If it blows up, the shipping lanes past Denmark will be full of sinking rusty container ships and the Russian navy will be out, so it will be up to Sweden and Denmark to take one for the team and save Latvia and Estonia from occupation. Some expeditionary force can probably always be sent over to us from the UK. We can probably forget about the USA; I think that acceptance is now beginning to set in. But it is our ships that must run the gauntlet with German and Polish help if they get out of the ports after Russian mining.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Airborne landing \u2013 is it likely? I don’t think so when the airspace is packed with the red team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exactly how we will get anything over to Estonia and Latvia I leave as an exercise for others, since we choose to be reactive, the Baltic Sea is full of drones, the two Russian submarines, the dozen or so decent surface ships they have, Russian air, and Russian operators on Saaremaa with both anti-ship missiles and air defense besides the drone weapon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I thought Denmark would send a new battalion to Latvia, but it is only the rotating battalion that will relieve our Swedish battalion \u2013 I absolutely do not understand why they do not let our battalion stay in the area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When D-Day comes, there will probably be a quick look at the digital situation map and it will be considered too high a risk for a workplace accident, and the Work Environment Act also applies to soldiers. Probably Sweden will say we take full responsibility for Gotland, and when Denmark realizes they can get away with something so cheap, they will say Bornholm will become a veritable fortress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we by any chance get something ashore, it will probably be in Ventspils or Liepaja, and then it is still south of the Daugava \u2013 maybe that will be how we do it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I remember a big discussion in 2022 when Sweden promised that we would “in the future” earmark two mechanized brigades for the Baltics in case of unrest in the area, and now it is 2026 without anything having happened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alternative two is that now, while the window is open, light units are sent in to dig in in eastern Baltics, and if war breaks out, it breaks out. You know what I think we should do by now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine managed with violence and sheer luck in 2022; had Belarus rolled toward Lviv from the north and Hungary from the south, it could have ended any way \u2013 apparently the signal when Kiev fell was as dumb as Putin is and both kept their fingers on the trigger because they are always the pals who betray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia’s combat planes were flawless, but he chose the wrong opponent. 1,500 infiltrated Kiev, paratroopers over the presidential palace, Hostomel was to become a base, and Kiev was to be encompassed from two sides. The plan with the 76th GAAD had to turn back in the air when Hostomel fell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

FSB stole the bribes that were to be distributed except down south, and the Russians were over the Dnieper already the first day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Macron and Scholz were fooled into calming Zelensky a few days before the attack started.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That was probably why Orban fired all 100 senior officers later in 2022 or 2023 because they messed up the eternal victory?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the events went in 2022 when Scholz suggested Ukraine should give up so everything could return to normal, it is easy to see that Europe would have immediately accepted fate-compli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is hard to find anything about the NK 11th AC up in Kursk; they were 12,000 \u2013 15,000 strong, but we have been flooded with videos since at least the turn of the year of North Korean workers in suits arriving, so my assumption has, as you know, been that they are significantly building up that corps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Found this now; since summer 2025, Ukraine has had information that NK will increase to 30,000 \u2013 considering all the videos, it seems they have followed the plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2025\/07\/02\/europe\/north-korea-troops-russia-ukraine-intl-cmd<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

You hear nothing about the North Koreans today but a lot when they fought \u2013 it is reasonable to assume they are in standby in the rear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There you have what is needed to free two Russian army corps from the northern front for missions in the Baltics. NK will handle defense along the northern front. Ukraine, by the way, has quite a lot of respect for them, apparently fierce bastards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a bonus \u2013 it is inside Russia and North Koreans, so there is some threshold effect for UA to conduct an offensive into Russia, especially if China gets theatrically very angry. Quite smart thinking actually with the North Koreans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the Russian balloon collapses in Ukraine and there is a revolution in Russia \u2013 great. But until then, we must reasonably take our damn responsibility?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exactly what our sluggishness depends on is unclear and probably different in different countries, but one thing I think we can say for sure \u2013 if Russian units dig in north of the Daugava, few governments in Europe will demand the area be retaken by force other than eagerly suggesting all other countries set a good example.<\/p>\n\n\n

I don\u2019t see it as a guarantee either that Poland will overrun Kaliningrad in the event of a conflict; they are now trying to fend off the Russian subversive activities in the country that have taken hold of them. They have managed to get into a heated dispute with Ukraine, where they have now decided not to send their decommissioned Mig-29s, blaming wear and tear and other reasons, of course, but that\u2019s how it is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Russian Baltic Fleet has probably already been written off by Putin after Ukrainian drone strikes, so whether it is sunk in the harbor or out at sea, he probably won\u2019t lose much sleep over it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin then trades these losses for the old favorite, the gauntlet in the Gulf of Finland, and as a bonus, he might manage to wiggle out of a fatal shot for the Ukraine war \u2013 he is extremely cornered, and then anything short of a fatal shot is probably attractive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin also knows very well that countries in Europe can decide at any time to move troops into the Baltics; the window he has where no decisions will be made is now in July \u2013 August. When everyone is back from the archipelago vacation at the start of school in August, anything can happen at unit meetings, and there is nothing he can control at all. Then during the autumn and spring, the curve will go down after we do more and Ukraine crushes the crap out of the Russian bastards down in Ukraine. Putin\u2019s window is the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You can be absolutely sure that there is a decision on Putin\u2019s desk. Whether the decision has been made, who knows \u2013 Ukraine would probably have heard something?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If nothing happens, we have to hold on for a year or so and then we will know how close it was and whether our guesses were accurate or not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What I hope for, of course, is the following \u2013 Putin chickens out and wants to wait until after the mobilization, it will be autumn rain and impassable roads, so everything is postponed to 2027, and by then the Ukrainian steamroller will have already come too far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maybe the midterm election and the Russian parliamentary election in September play a role?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2022, he was forced to wait until after the Olympics in China, and that cost him the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it makes no difference to what we should do, strengthen the Baltics now today. No currently living head of state knows what decision Putin will make, and if we look at Ukraine, he has only increased the level of violence when the level of violence does not produce the desired result. That he would suddenly become Sherman-cautious, we can of course hope for, but history says no.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Feel free to throw in a paid subscription to Johan No.1 Substack as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This is how tired Putin was when he was live-playing commander-in-chief from inside a studio in a bunker under Moscow. 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