{"id":5310,"date":"2026-07-17T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-17T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-is-killing-on-17-july-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-07-17T10:22:48","modified_gmt":"2026-07-17T08:22:48","slug":"ukraine-is-killing-on-17-july-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-is-killing-on-17-july-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine is killing on, 17 July 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Ukraine has rolled out a 40-day exercise in convincing Russia that their war is pointless. Most recently, they started sinking the small “river boats” (5,000-10,000 tons) that usually traffic the Don but have been redirected via the canals to transport fuel over to Crimea now that all other routes, bridges, and ferries have been drone-struck into a huge fireball of Russian death.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not sure exactly how many have been sunk, but we are surely up to a few hundred by now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UA has also broadened the persuasion campaign for peace to include the entire Black Sea and begun targeting larger ships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The refineries I started logging at the first operation back in 2023 have now seen over 166 liberation acts with fireballs and leaning towers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, Ukraine 2026 has also started targeting the entire fuel chain, pipelines, depots, and terminals, resulting in Russia facing a gigantic fuel shortage to try to manage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But they don’t stop there; they’ve also been probing power plants and gas nodes, besides a massive hunt for air defenses and radars all the way out in Taganrog and Rostov-on-Don.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s easy to see that Novorossiysk is on the Excel sheet for targeted objectives a bit further down, but above the Yamal cross.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A fairly large part of Russian heating comes from central district heating plants, often gas-powered, so if they go after gas distribution this fall, it will also get cold for average Ivan besides his car having no gasoline. I believe the intelligence has identified 3-4 nodes which, if taken out, would disrupt 60% of gas supply in Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It seems to have gone so far that Russia is now trying to import fuel from China and some old places in Asia, some places say no.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not sure exactly how far we’ve come in the 40 days, halfway?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine has no shortage of drones in any format at all and may be asking for an extended program if they don’t finish in time; I think there could be problems with all the overtime and hitting the ceiling for what labor laws stipulate as maximum overtime per month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That’s how it looks for Russia, and you know my hobbyhorse that Russia intends to mess with us. The wildfires are raging and the arrests are escalating. Eventually, it will be said just like last year when it was investigated a bit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

That is probably the lowest hanging fruit of all; last year, a few hundred were arrested, several of whom had been paid for their work where it could be linked to Russian pesetas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second is really our gas\/LNG?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stocks are 20%-25% below what they should be at this time of year, we have no anti-drone weapons, and we have been effective so our large tanks are well protected from accidents but not sabotage and absolutely not drones, or marine drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far in the war, we call everything accidents and the enormous big molehill is explained away with careless technicians and wrenches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Downed Ukrainian drones that have been fixed up, RU probably has no shortage of by now, and that could provide a nice conflict surface for them to exploit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A year from now, Ukraine will have our Gripens in large numbers, many more F-16s, their own JDAMS, and licensed-produced Patriot interceptors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Diligent as they are, they are also working on their own ballistic missiles and have hinted that they can manufacture nuclear weapons quickly if they just want to?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All of Europe’s measures are also about a year away roughly, where we try to acquire all capabilities and have a perimeter defense worth the name \u2013 I thought this would be in place this fall, but if there’s one thing I’ve consistently underestimated in a whole war, it’s the free West. We simply don’t score goals into open nets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You saw that Ukraine has now received its first Lynx from Germany, so in the area of mechanized warfare, their capability is increasing significantly now. You know from before that they have taken all old vehicles and put new weapon stations on them; half of Europe is involved in this huge refurbishment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mine clearance, amphibious combat vessels, shrapnel protection, artillery \u2013 basically everything they have received obscene amounts of from us in Europe over the past two years besides what they build themselves in their underground factories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crimea is completely blacked out and no fuel, administration and surely also staffs have begun to relocate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Behind the southern front, Ukraine recently took out a CAA staff with their FABs; everything is buried but UA can reach them with SU-27 and FAB nowadays \u2013 that doomsday weapon goes both ways. If the brigade commanders get no response in the field, how do you think they feel and think about sacrificing their lives?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the Russian army is extremely top-down controlled, so if it is static in the field, nothing happens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The brigades at the Dnieper are on a starvation diet \u2013 Brovdi has called them completely cut off without maintenance, and he of all people should know what he is talking about, a firsthand source.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Don’t know exactly how it looks behind the southern front other than that UA is advancing \u2013 probably thirsty and without diesel for the generators there as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A point as good as any \u2013 much is buried and they have generators for light, air, and their command and control in the elaborate bunker systems. If they get no fuel, it will be dark and boring in the holes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The drone weapon also needs to charge its batteries besides vehicles needing to be driven, then you have the water supply here in midsummer \u2013 which becomes critical first we will see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do you see how RU is supposed to turn this around \u2013 please feel free to suggest. To me, it looks like unless China joins the war, the adventure in Ukraine is on a downward slope.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RU will mobilize, but as UA increases pressure, dissatisfaction grows among the ground troops in Ukraine, and at some point, they have had enough. A million under arms who have had enough is the Russian elite’s nightmare and really the only thing they seriously worry about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A sane transfer of power they can handle and some popular unrest as well \u2013 the repressive organization is dimensioned for that even if it is under pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the army turns north from Ukraine and goes towards Moscow, it is game over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China has also been clear that nuclear weapons are a line they do not accept, and that follows statements from various leaders in Europe \u2013 we can conclude that Putin has started to fiddle with them but that everyone intends to draw a red line here roughly. What we do if he wants to test us remains to be seen, but we have probably done what we should.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US seems like they will vote through sanctions from hell for Russia?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If I understand correctly, however, it is a heavily watered-down proposal with a subjective veto from Trump when he wants, so probably it will be, like with many other things, totally toothless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump also has a balancing act to relate to, and if it becomes obvious that RU is on the decline, he will want to be on the winning side so that his legacy will be that he was always UA’s greatest defender. Exactly when that will happen is a bit hard to predict, but you can be sure it will come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I still believe that Putin wants to escalate, but he also has \u2013 Trump’s midterm elections, his own parliamentary elections, what China thinks, his own elite, and the citizens of the country to consider.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What he decides remains to be seen, but he does not have time on his side at all here. If we enter the razpuzitza sometime in October, it will not be easy for him to come up with anything after that, assuming Ukraine continues as it is now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is probably only one real threat \u2013 a ceasefire; let’s hope we never get to that, but even Europe must have understood this by now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Right now, things are really only moving forward on the fronts; this post was actually supposed to be about that but will have to take it next week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ending with Fedorov \u2013 very unfortunate is my view on the matter, and being dismissed sideways or upwards is somewhat of a Ukrainian classic?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In most wars, there are government changes and resignations when things start heating up; I was looking at WW2 where 5-6 governments in Europe collapsed in sheer panic before Germany even attacked them in 1940.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine has several plans to act on \u2013 internally within the country, externally towards the West, and then against the red swamp enemy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We in the West have probably moved past accusing Ukraine of all sorts of things instead of supporting them; Scholz at the beginning accused them of having the audacity to want to defend themselves, for example. But if their channels to us disappear, our actual support will probably vanish quite quickly \u2013 this is priority one for Russia to try to cut the networks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A guy like Fedorov managed to open new doors and create opportunities that few had done before him; that is quite clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

He is also behind Brodi’s and others’ increased drone warfare, which we all rejoice at \u2013 without him, it would have been significantly less.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He got Musk to shut off Starlink for the Russians, which I never understood before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He is also behind several of the agreements with Europe, and getting the drone weapon widely distributed within the organization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fedorov has prioritized completely correctly, and it also makes a difference on the battlefield and in the war \u2013 the whole country has seen this, and just as we begin to sense a new dawn, the Ukrainians have also done so; they have seen a brightening on the horizon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Internally in Ukraine, the country is tired of the war but more tired of the Russians; they are a mosaic that barely pulls in the same direction, and as long as the war continues, there is some kind of truce. They want to try to come out victorious from this, and the right man in the right place, according to them, is important. Sirsky is not liked at all, but Fedorov was very popular.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Against Russia \u2013 the number of assassination attempts on all prominent figures is probably +20 per person by now, in addition to all campaigns to smear them and create friction. Every little opportunity for friction is maximized by the Russians, and if an extremely popular FM is removed because he has demonstrably dared to tackle corruption and Soviet bureaucracy in the country, it is a godsend for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There has also been talk of elections this autumn, and Zalizhny intends to run; maybe Fedorov became a bit too popular?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just because there is a war does not mean ambitious people do not want their chance for a career.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When citizens see that those in power are not doing what is best for the country but have some hidden agenda, they get angry; in Ukraine, it is full war, so if broad layers of the population get angry, it can affect the war as a whole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The spearhead holding the line in the trenches over in eastern Ukraine \u2013 those are the ones that count, and they live in a reality that no one else is even close to, so they need everyone to pull in the same direction. What is good for them is good for the country, and Fedorov was good for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the spearhead decides to leave the trenches and go home, then the war is over; everyone else can misbehave in different ways, and it will be harder for the shooters in the trenches, but it is that doorstop that ultimately counts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now we will be showered with propaganda about why Fedorov was terrible, and also why he was good from both camps, but I think we can at least conclude that he single-handedly pushed through a development that started to make a real difference. Yes, of course, it must be followed up with a ground offensive and the whole palette, but without the drone weapon, the Russians would not be standing like thirsty camels over by the Dnieper gasping, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Probably you can draw good conclusions by seeing what Brodi says going forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you like Fedorov, you should immediately run to a paid subscription here on my Substack; the numbers still need to go up so I don’t get fired as well.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ukraine has rolled out a 40-day exercise in convincing Russia that their war is pointless. Most recently, they started sinking […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5310","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"\nUkraine is killing on, 17 July 2026 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-is-killing-on-17-july-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ukraine is killing on, 17 July 2026 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ukraine has rolled out a 40-day exercise in convincing Russia that their war is pointless. 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