{"id":5393,"date":"2026-07-29T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/russian-started-forest-fires-july-29-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-07-29T22:36:05","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T20:36:05","slug":"russian-started-forest-fires-july-29-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/russian-started-forest-fires-july-29-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Russian-Started Forest Fires, July 29, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This is a recurring tragedy, but this year the forest fires in continental Europe seem to be record-breaking in size.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just like previous years, it emerges in late summer that many have been arrested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/articles\/ckg34128nvpo<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even in Portugal, arrests of arsonists have skyrocketed, almost like a folk festival over the whole thing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/europe\/portugal-arrests-155-people-over-suspected-forest-fire-offenses\/4011381<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s probably not the easiest to find the culprits for a forest fire if one handles it neatly, so the number of arrests should be significantly lower than the number of people who start fires. How does one best start a fire \u2013 I imagine a cigarette butt in dry undergrowth is part of the instructions?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In previous years, information has come out in autumn that some of those arrested received a sum of money, 20,000 SEK or similar, and in some cases there were \u201cconnections to Russia.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then it dies down during autumn and starts again next summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This year, the unit in Russia responsible for the operation seems to have studied Dresden 1945 because they have managed, through the number of small fires, to ignite a firestorm that then draws in its own oxygen and becomes self-sustaining. Larger cities are starting to fall into the danger zone in both France and Spain where the word evacuation has been mentioned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What do we know?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia is searching for private individuals on social media who, for payment, carry out sabotage or terrorist acts. A few years ago, a Romanian couple traveled around France drawing swastikas on synagogues \u2013 when they were arrested, the link to their Russian handler was immediately found.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/france\/20231129-france-charges-two-over-nazi-swastika-graffiti-in-paris<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the Cold War, neo-Nazi graffiti was a Soviet operation where their operatives ran around with markers and scribbled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Swastika_epidemic_of_1959%E2%80%931960<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you google arson-Russia-2025 or any other chosen year, quite a few countries have had arson attacks on various targets in recent years where the perpetrators have been linked to Russian money and instructions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the Cold War, the Soviet Union needed to bring in spy rings with Swedish-speaking (trained) operatives to us who over many years built up their identity beyond those who were ideologically or financially bought over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today it is more pure business, gangs and criminal clans just charge for everything up to murder and it\u2019s cheap. A thirteen-year-old murders someone for ten thousand SEK in Sweden, and the queue for eternal glory and fame is apparently long.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran has been caught using gangs against Jewish or opposition targets in Sweden and the Nordics, so this is established.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.sakerhetspolisen.se\/ovriga-sidor\/nyheter\/nyheter\/2024-05-30-iran-anvander-kriminella-i-sverige.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This has been going on for several years already, today Russia is under extreme pressure and wants to remove Europe\u2019s support for Ukraine \u2013 it\u2019s a reasonable assumption that they have increased the effort?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides that, we know for certain that Rasmus Paludan\u2019s Quran burnings were commissioned. When Sweden was about to join NATO, there were many actions aimed at Turkish interests in Sweden that made Turkey very angry and they felt forced to refuse after all the insults.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia is well positioned for that action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Attacks by people from the Middle East who behead a mother and her child are another type of operation that directly has impact \u2013 besides bacon in Qurans and beheadings, it\u2019s hard to find anything that stirs more emotions in the respective target groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you look at our sad election debate in Sweden this summer, you quickly see that everyone tries to make an impact with a direct lie and the truth becomes what we hear most about from the most sources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before Trump 1, Cambridge Analytica was used to influence enough voters to vote for him, I don\u2019t know how it looked during Trump 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You can absolutely influence enough voters through the right information in the right channel and today bot farms are more common than a physical person when people argue on social media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Russia, Sweden is one of the biggest threats to them in Europe so they naturally try to get us to vote for the fringe parties on the right and left for maximum chaos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Right now, exactly all 8 parties are biting on all the lies that flash by on Twitter, so we are not making it any harder for the other Russian unit at GRU responsible for that operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What we can at least establish is that the fires in continental Europe are record-breaking in size, which means Russia has increased the effort this year \u2013 a sharp escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That in itself suggests that Russia intends to escalate where the fires came first in time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The next easy target is our LNG tanks, those of you who read me like the Bible know that an oil pipeline in Italy towards Germany was recently sabotaged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/attack-oil-pipeline-italy-threatened-fuel-supplies-across-southern-germany<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

You also know that LNG reserves are 20%-25% below what they should be at this time of year, and that Europe buys 60% of our LNG from the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A pretty easy shot in the stomach for us would be if some larger LNG tanks happen to have accidents now during autumn, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are already today in the red zone where there could be interruptions in winter, so if they manage to burn away a few more percent, it\u2019s over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the very least, it makes us serfs to the USA and Trump who can basically dictate the terms for us regarding LNG deliveries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Germany has already started to falter, summer 2025 Merz promised that Ukraine would regain all its land but now since April 2026 it is being said that Ukraine might have to give up a little land in Donbass for peace, very little land, so insignificant really.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It doesn\u2019t take a genius to understand that Germany is getting seriously nervous about its energy supply \u2013 the car industry is in free fall and heating is with LNG that is not in the reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we, God forbid, get a cold winter this El Nino year, or worse finances here at the first step in our 2008-style financial crisis, then the German fall will be bottomless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What would a little farmland in Ukraine be then compared to avoiding that abyss as punishment for the exciting world order they tried to impose on the rest of us sometime in the 40s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You can keep extrapolating as far as you want, which I won\u2019t do, but you should definitely take to heart that when the media writes column meters about all possible causes of fires, it is a Russian influence operation that created Dresden 2026 in France and Spain \u2013 a hybrid war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Johan No.1 has previously reasoned about Europe\u2019s willingness to defend the Baltics if Russian aggression starts \u2013 it\u2019s not entirely unreasonable that if a country starts having internal problems to the point that the government wavers, the ability to make necessary difficult decisions is lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The whole world except Europe remembers Europe\u2019s ravages on them a few generations ago. We forced China to become addicts in the 1800s for example, the USA was our raw material colony and constant wars with Russia which was always their fault but they don\u2019t think so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You can be sure that the rest of the world does not want an ultra-strong Europe that is rearming, so I am also wondering if they are pulling in the same direction in an upcoming financial crisis that preferably should hit Europe the hardest \u2013 we shall see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A black swan can usually work wonders to get finance to start running away with bundles of cash sticking out of pockets, and there are several possible such events \u2013 not least runaway electricity prices this autumn, a conflict with the Baltics, or governments toppled due to social unrest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anyway, you have now seen the start of a Russian escalation that we do not yet know where it will end, but in the Baltics they have been trying to protect high-value infrastructure for about a month now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The quick-witted immediately realizes that it is pulling personnel who would have been needed in eastern Baltics instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Lithuanian Military to Step Up Security at LNG Terminal Due to Threat of Russian Provocations<\/a><\/blockquote>