{"id":5555,"date":"2026-08-07T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-07T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/leipzig-and-iran-7-august-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T17:10:10","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T15:10:10","slug":"leipzig-and-iran-7-august-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/leipzig-and-iran-7-august-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Leipzig and Iran, 7 August 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This post was supposed to be about Bible studies but then it shifted to Iran, and then Leipzig.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leipzig\/Halle is a central NATO hub for transports and according to what we have heard, Europe has significantly strengthened security against incoming threats after two years of constant Russian drone overflights over our high-value targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have been downright embarrassing with no one detecting 10 drones scouting bases, airbases, industry, or other high-value targets, but that is supposed to be over now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The incident was as follows \u2013 a DHL flight in the air received a warning on the instruments and a drone hit the aircraft body, they saw a second object on the instruments and then the flight was redirected \u2013 possibly two drones in the air.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, at ground level at the airport, an airport employee saw an FPV drone either parked on the ground or hovering low in the air right next to a Ukrainian transport aircraft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe drone with \u201can unknown explosive device\u201d was found by an airport employee near the south runway, police said, adding it was being examined after having its detonator removed. An investigation was underway. (isn\u2019t that self-explanatory?)\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/germany-airport-explosive-drone-leipzig-russia-ukraine-1fcc78547151369f756f5c9f677681de<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Germans deny that the flight was loaded with ammunition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This airport employee neutralized the drone and upon inspection, it was equipped with Semtex which he probably did not know \u2013 military explosive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Police helicopters searched a couple of areas near the airport but as far as I know, no one has been arrested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That it is Russia we do not need to guess, and that it was a live attack that failed we also do not need to guess even if everyone wants to be the adults in the room and not overreact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Russia has operators inside Europe who can handle FPV drones and have access to explosives. Leipzig\/Halle is inland and this was a small quadcopter so not something flown in from the shadow fleet thus.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Russia has shown that they now intend to start targeting locations inside Europe.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Europe has zero defense against these, Leipzig\/Halle and the Ukrainian transport flight were high-value targets prioritized for protection.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    If Russia were to decide to carry out a campaign against, for example, some LNG storage tanks, our central stockpiles of air defense interceptors, or fighter jets lined up at airbases now in peacetime, we currently have very little ability to defend ourselves, apparently between zero and minus two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Europe issued 450,000 Schengen visas to Russian citizens in 2025 and just as many on an annual basis so far in 2026. In addition, they have for a couple of years built up a network of people who for payment carry out various acts for them, for example from gangs or just people with questionable morals who want to get paid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Our, Europe\u2019s, resilience against Russia largely depends on our belief that we can defend ourselves in case of conflict but if larger stockpiles of anti-ballistic interceptors disappear then suddenly the threat Russia can project with ballistic missiles increases if the defense is removed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    They have just done that in the Baltics \u2013 the US pulled all offensive units from there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    We are already today 25% below in LNG reserves for what we need to avoid blackouts this winter in continental Europe. If Russia, by means of FPV drones, manages to burn down some larger tanks or the import pipeline that comes by sea, we are probably easier to affect than if the tanks are full.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    We have so many fighter jets that it is probably easier to target central stockpiles of their missiles instead of the planes themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Russia has just shown us that they have infiltrated the capability in Europe to carry out these attacks and that they have started to carry out these attacks even though technical failures and an airport employee won round 1 for us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This is exactly how Ukraine operates against Russia and Robert Brovdi, the Ukrainian drone king, has declared in front of full stands with all of Europe\u2019s leaders that he can paralyze Europe with one of his drone battalions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In the last two years, Ukraine has contributed drone groups to our defense exercises and every time we get badly beaten and have to remove them from the exercise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ukraine has practically shown us what the threat looks like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Russia, on the other hand, has been subjected to this by Ukraine for several years now and every smart operation Ukraine makes they can just steal and prepare against us, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    You can find the invectives at johanno1.se but it is incomprehensible to me that Europe is still sleeping through this. That the threat is geographically limited to Russia and Ukraine is only true until it is no longer true.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Finland and the Baltics recently went on heightened alert at high-value targets within their countries because they know Russia will start a campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Poland, which in autumn 2025 failed to shoot down 23 Geran drones that flew straight through the country, recently failed to shoot down a Russian missile with a warhead that flew 100 km into the country before hitting the ground and detonating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    We are also wide open to the Russian missile and long-range drone threat still and just in July 2026 Ukraine shot down 55,000 drones of all sizes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Russia has also parked ships from the shadow fleet in a string along Europe\u2019s borders and they have operators onboard with Geran warheads. The Gerans can reach virtually all targets across Europe, if they want.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Since we \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    -support Ukraine\u2019s war\/drone war against Russia<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    -impose sanctions against Russia<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    -freeze their money<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    -board their ships from the shadow fleet<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    and in every other way make Putin\u2019s life miserable, I am quite convinced that from the Russian stands we are already a belligerent party against them \u2013 we are at war with Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    We should of course do all this and preferably a bit more but we must also prepare for the backlash that is guaranteed to come and it is precisely there I get high blood pressure when we consistently refuse to do so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Besides that, I dug a bit into why Ukraine is not getting anti-ballistic interceptors and it is only SAM\/PT with their Asters that fill that role besides Patriot PAC3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    NASAMS seems to be coming and they together with Ukraine\u2019s domestically built new capabilities can take down everything else which they do +90% of targets engaged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The US is now out of the equation, they have left walkover all according to what Krasnov has arranged with Putin. If you are not worried that all offensive units from the US have been pulled from the Baltics, maybe you will be now when they are not sending any Patriot interceptors when the situation is critical?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Europe simply does not manufacture enough Aster interceptors and now probably all countries\u2019 Chiefs of Defense are hoarding for national defense and none are sent to Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    What then happens in Iran, is it going well there at least?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    That the US has not succeeded in getting Iran to throw in the towel is clear to everyone, moreover Iran does not seem to have any coordinated administration where one group signs an agreement while another bombs American bases in the region the same day.<\/p>\n\n\n

    If one wants to be charitable, one might call it strategy, but most likely it is a full power struggle with claws out in the bunkers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    For me, the US lost the initiative when they allowed Shia militias from surrounding countries in; we covered this in a couple of posts you have all read.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Israel wanted regime change and that was why they went to war; the US did not have that explicitly in their battle plan. Israel had Pasha on the sidelines and reached the point of hunting IRGC with drones under road bridges before the ceasefire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    We saw videos of queues of IRGC soldiers at Afghanistan’s and Pakistan’s border controls seeking asylum, and citizens took to the streets in large numbers. Pasha also activated his \u201cimmortal guard\u201d at the end, some kind of stay-behind force meant to assist the citizens’ fight for freedom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Israel spared the army\u2019s high command and fought only the regime and IRGC \u2013 whispers that the army was about to take over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Then something happened; we posted videos here of Shia militias forming up in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan \u2013 everyone knew they were preparing to move into Tehran to support the regime. Pickups, flags, weapons, and happy men.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Then there were videos of long lines of pickups and many thousands of militiamen driving through the desert towards Tehran for several days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Israel, which had just been hunting IRGC with drones under road bridges, left these alone. In Syria, both Israel and the US have learned to combat these; they always form up and then move towards an area they intend to ethnically cleanse, so the modus operandi with the allied Kurds has been to fiercely fight them on the roads before they arrive, using air or drone strikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The US, which had just deployed its Apaches and A10 Warthogs to the area, also left these alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The same US\/Israel that within minutes could strike rocket launchers as they rolled out of hangars to fire. They absolutely saw this slow, long, bright red snake in the desert heading towards Tehran on their IR cameras from drones or satellites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Rumors circulated about a quarrel between Netanyahu and Trump for a while.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2026\/05\/20\/politics\/trump-netanyahu-tense-phone-call<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/articles\/cvgz21pq3g6o<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Pasha disappeared and the citizens of Iran were subjected to another round of genocide and had to retreat back into their shells.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Not only that, but regular flights landed in Iran during the war and militiamen poured out. The butcher from Kirkuk smiled broadly and bowed over the privilege of being invited to this people’s festival as well. I sat watching the videos and couldn\u2019t believe it was true.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Then came all the \u201cfull war\u201d, \u201cnow it\u2019s peace\u201d from Trump \u2013 I think he\u2019s up to 40 times soon?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Those who have timed his statements have made huge amounts of money on speculation; this has been widely discussed on finetwitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The single most important event of the war involving the protected Shia militias, which have completely fallen into oblivion except here it seems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    It was also the only acceptable reason for the war \u2013 to free the country from dictatorship so that peace could settle over MENA. I supported the war on that basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    My burning question is why they chose not to score an open goal?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The picture from what has been reported about Trump is that he is very pro-Israel, and then there was some idea about parking themselves as gatekeepers in Hormuz so the US could start collecting tolls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Besides that, one of the plans also seems to have been to sell MENA security because the US has made the area unsafe (again).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The US is well aware of what their forever wars have cost them and should have tried for a quick conclusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    There is a bit more information \u2013 the US and Israel started attacking oil infrastructure in Iran early on and claimed to be surprised when Iran retaliated proportionally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Few sharp analysts, where I am probably world-leading, will claim that you win a war as fast as possible by knocking out oil pipelines in an area where you have your own pipelines 10 miles away and the opponent has as many long-range weapons as you do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    At one point Trump blamed everything on the Kurds; the US seems to have armed them but since Trump threw them under the bus in Rojava (Syria) a few months earlier, they were probably upset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    You who read here heard the outcry when Trump betrayed Rojava from me, and we can guess what the Kurds themselves thought and felt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    So what are the alternatives to where we are today? Please feel free to fill in?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    – Trump\/USA simply missed the militias’ march towards peace and freedom, and everyone else is just bumbling idiots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    – Trump made a deal from the start with Russia and China to weaken the US in the Iran war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    – China and Russia reached out to Trump sometime after the war started and began to influence him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    – Forces in the US see a new forever war in MENA as good business, so it must not end too quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    I can almost guarantee you these militia convoys were detected (because I saw them!!!!) but they chose not to fight them, and that Israel screamed bloody murder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Has Trump made a deal with China and Russia and is trying to weaken the US, or did he get billions directly into his account \u2013 considering all the disgruntled military, this should have come out if so, or is it too early in the game?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Yes, unfortunately Trump has had the opportunity to meet both Xi and Putin in private, so the letter agencies\u2019 ability to eavesdrop has been somewhat weaker; theoretically, they could have cooked up something he kept quiet about?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    It\u2019s not entirely unreasonable that there are forces wanting a new forever war in MENA as well, but that would be without Israel since their security situation today is acutely worse than before the war started.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    ISIS was a creation of \u201cmoderate rebels\u201d who were armed to the teeth by the US and became ISIS. Most recently, when the US left Afghanistan, they gave about 5 billion USD in weapons to the Afghans?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    All paid for and ready, generating new flows of materiel in the future when they turn the weapons against others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    You can keep fantasizing freely like this forever \u2013 the only thing I feel I can conclude is that the US and Israel very deliberately chose to let tens of thousands of militiamen into Tehran and then it was game over for popular uprising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Why, well, historians will have to figure out over the next two hundred years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The US, with Trump at the helm, is probably starting to feel they are cornered; their fuel reserves are not infinite, the 30-year interest rate is high, midterm elections in November, and Iran seems to be doing exactly as they please.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    It\u2019s not entirely unlikely that Iran is playing for time here; they took the hit and still have the capability to create unrest in the neighboring area, which, because it involves oil and LNG, immediately ripples out into the world.<\/p>\n\n\n

    Ukraine will have to bear the consequences anyway, as the USA, led by Trump, blames the Iran war for not being able to send more weapons to Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The fact is that Iran holds a pretty significant black swan if they so wish to shake up the markets at the right moment. They are fighting for their survival and the laws of war apply, but it will naturally have a global impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Once again, I want to push for a paid subscription to my Substack before the financial crisis arrives.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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