{"id":5650,"date":"2026-08-19T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-19T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/pearl-novorossiysk-19-august-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-08-19T17:32:22","modified_gmt":"2026-08-19T15:32:22","slug":"pearl-novorossiysk-19-august-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/pearl-novorossiysk-19-august-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Pearl Novorossiysk, 19 August 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This post was supposed to come out on Friday but it turned into a complicated day at work; ideally, you want to post tribute posts when everyone is a little tipsy on Friday morning, but it had to be today instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pearl Novorossiysk, as mentioned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But first, last Thursday the lock gates were flung wide open, probably a triple whammy of the day where Russia increased the pace in the hybrid war, Europe’s leaders made up their minds, and then Twitter’s algorithms for once showed things people are interested in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I got at least ten new alerts about our eventful hybrid war with Russia, and then 4-5 more on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If anyone thinks that a European port like the Port of Rotterdam with its “zero accident policy” naturally gets 4 serious accidents in one day, they need to rethink. Ports, airports, and industry in the West take safety very seriously, especially ammunition manufacturers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sometime last week, I guess the EU leaders had a meeting where, late in the second half, they finally made a decision. They accept Putin’s subversive activities that will target them specifically now that they are standing up \u2013 “We are strong together,” they chanted, holding hands, something like that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only thing harder than getting our elected officials to do their jobs and call a spade a spade is tricking paying subscribers onto my Substack \u2013 EU won.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now 27 leaders in the EU are pointing firmly at Russia and screaming red-faced. “A small ant step,” you say, but it’s like the moon landing, a small step for Rodney King but a giant leap for humanity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lots of disinformation now, apparently the train with North Korean ballistic missiles that burned up might have been psyops, I didn\u2019t dare jump on that but it made the rounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My valuable sources, besides spies I pay for information, are a battery of OSINT analysts we\u2019ve learned to trust over 4.5 years. Now it\u2019s starting to fill out a bit since it\u2019s all of Europe and a global war; if something is off, it\u2019s usually an honest mistake, otherwise it\u2019s intended to confuse the GRU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One should be very careful with “that benefits Putin” and then keep quiet \u2013 for 4.5 years we have praised Ukraine, our own capabilities, and mocked Russia; the only thing that seems to have happened is that Europe has continued to slumber.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin has already plainly told us what he intends \u2013 right on target with what “someone” guessed, I think?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Here you have a guy who probably stole everything from my Substack, I\u2019ve sued him for copyright infringement, that bastard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Not posting all the links but last week two ammunition factories in Bulgaria and Italy had major explosion accidents, Rotterdam\u2019s port caught fire, and drones entered Romania, the Baltics, and Bulgaria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poland arrested someone who was going to murder a Russian opposition figure in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another fun fact is that the Baltic Sea is now being searched almost daily by Poseidon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Or here,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Or Kaliningrad<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Putin\u2019s Pearl Harbor \u2013 many read the news, took a sip of coffee, and went back to paying bills and worrying about interest rates, but this is a biggie, a big-biggie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the war, Ukraine has carried out a couple of great feats, 30% of the strategic bomber fleet was one, and drone swarms over Moscow another.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is much to rejoice over, but the liberation feat against Novorossiysk was different and better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moscow is large in area, Ukraine punches a hole in some corner and saturates with drones despite 3-4 rings of air defense; they have a large area to work with so they always hit something.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is nothing wrong at all with the Russian air defense \u2013 integrated, early warning, and all different types down to mobile artillery groups with machine guns just like Ukraine has used.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s just that Ukraine is faster at exploiting cracks and better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The joy shot against the strategic bomber fleet was deep and a surprise that paid off; no one expected it and the number of dismissed air force officers was high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All through 2026, Ukraine has ground down Crimea and recently formally announced that Sevastopol has ceased to be a naval base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Russians have in rounds moved all their valuable ships to Novorossiysk, which is their only remaining naval base in the Black Sea; after that, they have to limp out through the Bosporus if Turkey agrees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have learned the lesson and that naval base and export port for grain, oil, and LNG is probably the most heavily fortified geographic location on earth with air defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Small in area and they have worked hard for two years to protect themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UA has been probing before and if you saw the videos, there was no lack of artillery air defense as the air was absolutely full of tracer rounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the press conference, or the filmed meeting, Zelensky and the officers couldn\u2019t hold back that childish Christmas joy that shone through; you almost got teary-eyed if you hadn\u2019t run out of tears after all the misery and disappointments \u2013 probably this is one of the big events of the war for UA. As usual, we yawn and fall asleep again, but the level of that operation we haven\u2019t seen anywhere in the world for many years, Ukraine has shown what they are capable of now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They used EVERYTHING they have in the toolbox, all drone units fired to capacity with their various types of drones and they completely overwhelmed the defense. The coordination is like trying to solve seven Rubik\u2019s cubes at once \u2013 wizard level is real here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The result was that all major ships remaining in the Black Sea Fleet were hit. I haven\u2019t followed up on exact damages because Ukraine can do the same thing again in a month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

That was the good news, Putin is running out of time and after Novorossiysk he understands it, that\u2019s my conclusion, and Zelensky says this too \u2013 it echoes a bit in here, I think?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It means plainly that whatever evil plans he has hatched are accelerated and approved because he understands very well that if he hesitates another year, the Baltic Fleet will burn along with Kaliningrad without Europe having to lift a finger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are plenty of targets in the Baltic Sea area that Europe, dumb as we are, has asked Ukraine not to attack so far \u2013 this may prove to have been a bad move on our part.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since Europe now dares to point firmly at Putin and has decided on a written complaint and a criminal report for vandalism, we shouldn\u2019t go too hard below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia has for a year or two created a new weapon branch, the drone weapon they call Rubicon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The number is maybe 100,000 strong today and they have shamelessly copied Ukraine\u2019s drone weapons and with China\u2019s help built themselves up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How would our own naval bases and surface ships stand against an equivalent attack from Russia?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One hopes this is what our Supreme Commander is now occupied with amid the joy frenzy when champagne corks are flying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sweden did many things right during the Cold War and our war mooring places in the archipelago paired with the submarines and bases in bedrock are naturally still winners. It doesn\u2019t look like that at all in the rest of Europe where the fleets lie at the quay and the fighter jets instead of being dispersed at road bases like we use are neatly lined up at some dozen airfields.<\/p>\n\n\n

Sweden has always been at the forefront \u2013 you have to have quite a bit of respect for that even though we now clearly struggle to grasp warfare in 2026. We do because the Armed Forces employees and the arms industry have had peace for too long.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second point is that the US thought they had learned to fight on a drone-saturated battlefield in 2026. After seeing our monumental failure during Aurora26, they wanted to test-drive a mechanized brigade with Ukraine as OPFOR to show everyone they could do it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The usual old story, Ukraine sent some drone groups there and an entire brigade was completely crushed already during the advance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unfortunately for us, this brigade had its own drone groups with hundreds of drones, EW weapons both at group level and larger, and its own interceptor drones \u2013 it was an attempt by the US to check that everything worked as it should now that they had rolled out the drone weapon in the organization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It did not \u2013 if you remember our previous posts, it is an integrated spiderweb of different capabilities and above all handling and experience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine tried to sell the drone equipment to countries in the Middle East but immediately noticed that handling was just as important as a complete package, so I guess they are now operating the equipment themselves down there?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The West has reached the point where we have finally started to deploy the drone weapon in the organization, but our handling is still completely inadequate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All of you who don\u2019t feel your skin crawl and the hair on your neck stand up better rethink quickly because throughout 2026 all our elite units that have tried to train against some Ukrainian drone groups that don\u2019t even do their worst have taken 100% losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have previously promoted one reason why we have not sent our mechanized units into the Baltics, that our Supreme Commander understands it would be a bloodbath.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you want to be extremely charitable towards Krasnov, I mean Trump, that could also be the reason why the US pulled all units out of the Baltics. Extremely charitable and it is my conviction that Krasnov is Krasnov now even though he must balance the US internally and we sometimes see good things from there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It could also be a jab directed at us since we are actually the US\u2019s biggest threat as an alternative reserve currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unfortunately, the US is our most important friend \u2013 a difficult balancing act.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia has a 100,000-strong equivalent capability compared to the 40-50 weak drone groups Ukraine has crushed us with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is why I am pushing hard that we must deploy light infantry in eastern Baltics who have time to dig in and mine the border again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before we have a drone weapon of our own worth the name and have learned to fight in a drone-saturated combat environment in 2026, we have the choice to either stand and watch as Russia overruns the Baltics or take the fight with mines, pits, and light infantry that scurry around like shrews with a golden eagle hovering above them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It works, it will be bloody \u2013 but we will not abandon the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we are reactive, and if Putin gives the order, then we will face the choice of trying to cross the Daugava under Rubicon\u2019s drone umbrella which is already a challenge without the drones. Or wishing the Baltics all luck and prosperity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is some battle plan spinning around for the Baltics, the same old one as before but being reactive and then launching this \u2013 too late and even then this is an attempt to project great strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s that simple and since we have reached the level of angry letters, the likelihood that we are prepared to sacrifice tens of thousands of our sons\u2019, daughters\u2019, and other gender identities\u2019 lives to cross the Daugava was low if not very low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lots of posts in the pipeline about IRA, the technological leap, Bible studies, and other exciting things you are waiting for but they are coming. Getting lots of DMs from Dengamle about the Bible doctrine now that the exorcism didn\u2019t work, the Pope\u2019s chief exorcist has sent a package with stronger stuff by UPS arriving this week. Dengamle thus has valid absence from johanno1.se.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s not at all fun to follow this spring\u2019s build-up to war and to see point after point actually fulfilled, but that Ukraine is fighting back gives some balm to the wounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The area that UA has had complete OPSEC around is the area assigned to the 8th Air Assault Corps and they have been fighting for several months (since January I think) east of Pokrovske and west of Vuhledar approximately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is not a strategic offensive, there are no Russian elite units there, there are no big prizes in the area such as dominant terrain, larger cities, or nodes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it is an army corps that on its own with the help of the drone weapon has pushed back the Russians on an entire front section 10km-15km deep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Now that they get to talk, officers and soldiers say that OPSEC has been total and that no information leaked out \u2013 it has thus worked for UA to silence every little OSINT agent and their entire organization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UA has fought at a numerical disadvantage of maybe 1:3 and the Russian side has many drone units and artillery in the area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s called a rout, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is far from the only ongoing offensive operation but the one UA has now chosen to confirm so the maps were allowed to be updated. Again, you look and say small step, we say \u201ca big step for mankind\u201d even if it apparently wasn\u2019t Rodney King.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If an American heavy brigade was burned out under the weight of 40 Ukrainian drone pilots and our own units had to cheat by removing the Ukrainians from the exercise during Aurora26, you can perhaps guess what level this is at where the Ukrainians are conducting offensive operations at a numerical disadvantage with the Russian drone weapon Rubicon against them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I have a new strategy, first I skim all the boring news for us in Europe and then I read the Ukrainian success story, it makes it easier that way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In France, nearly 500 have been arrested for this year\u2019s forest fires since July 1st and 70% of those arrested are for having started the fires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/world\/europe\/2026\/08\/15\/nearly-500-arrested-over-suspected-arson-in-france-as-wildfires-grip-europe<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Ceuta, they tried another thunder-run against the enclave but the Moroccan border guards stopped it \u2013 maybe it wasn\u2019t Morocco behind it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We can have our opinions about the US but they are one of our few remaining friends who maybe aren\u2019t particularly friendly but Russia \u2013 China \u2013 Iran \u2013 North Korea all have access to Europe via Russia\u2019s western border and are all arming up for war or are at war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the US after its not always so successful decisions in recent years first with Biden and then Trump (where one might suspect Trump has a bit more active contact with Russia) does a 360 and becomes isolationist again, then the whole spearhead is aimed at Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia stands at the forefront with Chinese production behind it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is what we should already have prepared for but maybe we won\u2019t before it breaks out, the solution is so ridiculously simple that I will never understand why we hesitate.<\/p>\n\n\n

Drive the shooting into the Baltics and relive the autumn of 1938 but without all the mosquitoes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Give Ukraine everything they point at and try to topple the country Russia so it turns inward and they eat themselves up as they did three times during the 20th century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine gave us the time but now we are left behind so we have to do what we can \u2013 being reactive and waiting has rarely resulted in anything other than a silver medal in war, or trying to make up 400m in an 800m race after stumbling and crashing into the ditch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We ridicule Russia because we should, but Ukraine hides everything which they should also do, a tank is hit by 25 FPV drones and we see the last one blowing it up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RU constantly hits important UA industry but we hear about missiles with poor accuracy against civilians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have good intelligence, we know that \u2013 sometimes Ukraine has a conference or medal ceremony where they put missiles in or those journalists at the hotel. When it becomes spectacular and open, it comes out in the media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Russian drone weapon grinds down the front line just as Ukraine chases the Russians across the fields, but UA has a sparse line of shooters behind their drone shield.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RU solves it with expendable ammunition in the form of soldiers instead, just as we would be forced to before we have our own drone weapon worthy of the name.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Russian air defense is potent but has met its superior man\/woman\/other gender identity in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, we are untested but the puzzle I am putting together tells me that we have not prepared enough beyond Finland who does not take chances and that is too little too late for everyone else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poland today has a formidable defense force but for the last war, unfortunately familiar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Baltics have achieved very little \u2013 now in 2026 the osinats have passed which fixed defense has been built and it is not much more than what we described before \u2013 tank ditches you can jump over, few mines and few bunkers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How they fail to build it will be a question for historians to sort out but the Baltics have struggled with Russian infiltration just like everyone else and decisions that burden the state budget so much must be voted through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But I don\u2019t understand why not every construction company took a month this summer and dug trenches or ditches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we God forbid end up in a war, it will not be our powerful indirect capabilities or our mechanized armored fists that decide after RU has delivered a first strike and taken dominant terrain in the Baltics along the Daugava River. It is dug-in shooters behind mining along the Baltics\u2019 eastern border that buys us the time we need to get organized \u2013 after that our indirect capabilities and reinforcements can come into their own over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The doctrine has so many built-in flaws that it will not work as intended in a real situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, I can in fact think that the Baltics should just mobilize their 40,000 per country they have after mobilization and dig them in but they operate in a peacetime economy without much support from the EU unfortunately so they probably don\u2019t want to take that step before it\u2019s urgent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Russia then manages to hide their war preparations until units begin their movement from the northern front, it is already too late \u2013 it takes a couple of months for all the fieldwork before you have a static defense worthy of the name.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, Estonia has its focus area in the northern part of the country and Latvia must have most south of the Daugava River so in the area RU intends to advance it is poorly defended even after mobilization unfortunately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So therefore my battle plan I have sent to the Supreme Commander and the EU Parliament is that we in Europe send in 20,000 \u2013 30,000 light infantry to eastern Baltics between Tartu \u2013 Daugava who get to dig in and mine the shit up again. Then at least we have done what we can and built up a threshold worthy of the name.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I check the inbox every day but apart from ads for arthritis medicine and online casinos it is silent. I have now come to the point where I am reviewing how long I realistically have a job here, whether to fix the interest rate, which currency I should lock my salary in after the new year and similar because I think the shit will hit the fan in all sorts of ways starting this autumn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whichever government we get after the election should have this as priority one instead of all the election promises everyone makes, form the government as quickly as possible and let all officials stay so they can work undisturbed. If you replace a lot of Director Generals everything is paralyzed for half a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Apparently everyone agreed during the party leader debate that we citizens are expected to fight for the country in case of war so soon there will be a post with everything they need to do so that we can go over to the Baltics and smoke out the Russians. Broad layers need to understand why since not much groundwork has been laid so far. We need all equipment including weapons procured and delivered in addition to a whole battery of other important points \u2013 for example, if you are a family provider and expected to spend a year or two in the Baltics, how much will come into the account each month so the children can eat when the wave of layoffs comes and your better half loses their job?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If this is not sorted out your better half will just call and say they are drowning in letters from the enforcement authority and the fridge is empty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Or which age groups do you decide to mobilize \u2013 young with their whole life ahead who are to start families or older who have already done their part, 40 years-60 years?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine had from 2014 \u2013 2022 to get organized somewhat, we will have a few months.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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