{"id":5707,"date":"2026-08-28T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/the-road-to-conflict-28-august-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-08-29T07:11:10","modified_gmt":"2026-08-29T05:11:10","slug":"the-road-to-conflict-28-august-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/the-road-to-conflict-28-august-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"The Road to Conflict, 28 August 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Today we were thinking of posting a front update because a lot of positive things are happening, but since things are heating up, it will have to wait; the update will come on Monday or Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My knowledge comes from Rise of Nations, so maybe not much to cheer about, but you go through the whole phase of building where you either build farms and get wiped out by early raids or prepare militarily and don’t have the economy to back up full mobilization \u2013 this is what we then try to translate into war economy or people damaged by peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What saves me in Rise of Nations is the pause button because as soon as there are multiple threats, you panic and immediately hit pause, lean back, put in a snus, and figure out what’s going on \u2013 there is also apparently a concept for this called “getting inside the enemy’s decision cycle.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The logical conclusion I draw is that Putin and Trump have found each other on some Rise of Nations server \u2013 could it be that simple that they have become gaming buddies?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now we come to the point where it is mainstream to understand that the Baltics are Putin’s next target, think Ardennes, I feel, if you need to dive deep into Putin’s DNA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is difficult to run anything over a long time when the only feedback you get back is links to all other analysts, media, or spokespersons in various defense forces saying that there is no threat to the Baltics \u2013 now everyone did a complete turnaround without shame as usual.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The other thing we have pushed is something we have interpreted over time through the information we have received that Europe does not intend to defend Estonia and Latvia north of the Daugava River in the event of open conflict \u2013 now we got it in black and white after the US leaked its battle plan to the newspaper BILD, not necessarily what was described but what they chose not to include.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A kind soul, Lindell on Substack, pointed out to me that such a battle plan apparently circulated a few years ago but was not well received, so it went quiet \u2013 you always learn something new. I have shifted from Ukraine to the threat against us only in the past year, so how things went before that is not entirely clear to me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will return to everything below but six hundred Danish mothers probably weren’t very happy to read the article in BILD. Just like with us, I guess those soldiers are between 20-30 years old?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First the US, there will be a lot of US today as well \u2013 right now I see two USes, one strokes Putin the wrong way and wants to give Europe a little jab while the other country conducted a huge show of force around Kaliningrad so the Russians panicked in the middle of their morning vodka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To understand how serious the situation is\/was, we had “search and recovery” in the air at the same time as the big air show over Kaliningrad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The CIA chief was naturally in Moscow to point out that the US sees and hears everything and has clear boundaries with Putin’s intentions to jump on the Baltics \u2013 he was not there to divide the world between the US and Russia, that is handled by Trump \u2013 Putin either themselves or through the clowns Witkoff and Kushner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This was the right US trying to take the right measures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A US official seems to be leaking to WSJ, which then becomes the media you go to when you want info directly from the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin is also considering tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine \u2013 if it happens, it happens, it changes nothing on the battlefield and will not stop Ukraine, but China and India have again gone out in the media and asked Russia to calm down, I think this is the second time China has spoken out on the matter, so probably only the Uyghurs and microchips they have talked more about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I, who live full-time in Sweden when I\u2019m not working in the Dominican Republic or other countries around the world, just a few weeks around Christmas and a short stint in the middle of summer, write from a Swedish and European perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then you are a bit forgiving of your own geographical misfortune and more annoyed at others, which it has been for a while now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Europe still buys LNG and oil, we trade with Iran, we buy everything we can from China, we sell everything we can to Russia, and when it started burning, we turned a blind eye to smuggling that immediately took over so the same quantity can still be sent \u2013 we shall be Ukraine\u2019s best friends besides the war coming directly to us if Russia is not stopped. Statistics on how little we buy-sell are totally misleading as they do not include all the disguised pigs to circumvent sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We in Europe deserve quite a bit of criticism from the US, and the US is one of our few friends left in the world now besides Australia, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Canada, and a few others that can be counted on one hand\u2019s fingers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rest of the world\u2019s countries either don\u2019t care, can imagine a strong China\/Russia, or don\u2019t dare \u2013 those who have taken a clear stand against the death triangle have done so now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US probably sees Europe as the strongest threat to the petrodollar, and the rest of the world knows that Europe goes bananas when we get too strong because then the colonization penalty comes directly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China wants a Europe that buys Chinese.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia wants a Europe that does not dare to stand up to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US wants a Europe that supports buying dollars and helps them in all the wars they start.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are not doing any of this right now, but at the same time as Russia starts drawing up plans for punitive expeditions against us and China points to a list of critical raw materials that will be subject to export bans, the US (they must feel) that even if they want to remove the threat to the petrodollar, they do not want Europe to fall into full war. We should begin approaching the point where the US must choose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Say what you want, but in 1917 the US came to Europe\u2019s aid and in 1941 as well \u2013 Europe was subdued, invaded, conquered, and terrified. Besides every country totally embarrassing itself during 1940, Sweden got a hefty fine in 1945 for our help to Hitler\u2019s Germany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Somewhat simplified, the US has reason to be angry at us and we have reason to be angry at the US \u2013 but when it matters, we must damn well stand united and we are approaching that point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US is not wrong when they ask us to lock the door, install an alarm, and have a baseball bat easily accessible since the area is full of addicts looking for copper wire to sell. They simply do not want to be alone in the neighborhood watch group against crime anymore, plus they constantly get scolded because we wake up at night when they walk around feeling that the doors are locked or quietly assault the addicts when they encounter them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should we have helped with Iran, extremely conflicted since I considered an attempt at regime change legitimate because Iran is a major destabilizing force in the region and has supported Russia with personnel and drones throughout the war.<\/p>\n\n\n

On the other hand, the USA\/Israel completely fumbled when they let tens of thousands of militia into Tehran who could suppress popular uprisings \u2013 I still want to know why, they tracked them on IR cameras like long slow bright red snakes through the desert, A10 with Apache was already on site.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe solved it by continuing to trade with Iran \u2013 we absolutely should not do that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back to the USA \u2013 as I said, I see two USA right now, one flying around with first strike packages around Kaliningrad and then going to Russia to warn Putin against attacking Europe, Radcliffe apparently met the head of SVR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then a second USA that fires high-ranking officers in NATO Europe, pulls all troops out of the Baltics and cuts critical functions exactly where and when Putin wants. It is very clear that this comes from Putin and the countries with the most troops in the Baltics \u2013 Canada, Denmark, and Spain constantly get their comeuppance from Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you manage to put this together, you have reached the highest level of analytical ability \u2013 has the country USA started running in the right direction while some \u201cothers\u201d run in another?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now it is clear that Russia has a far advanced plan to jump on us \u2013 you already knew that in autumn 2025 if you have read the posts and prepared during the past year. Here is your free chance to be first with hoarding toilet paper, building a masonry fireplace, solar panels, generator, and practicing with nunchakus. Extra points to those who have taken the hunter\u2019s exam and bought an AR-15 with a silencer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our show of force around Kaliningrad was not a fun prank, it was to try to get Putin to refrain from what he now plans in the near term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I can guarantee you that the situation is worse than we are led to believe \u2013 now Europe is doing what we did during the Cold War, everyone except the citizens of Europe knows how tense the situation is. I don\u2019t really mind that because otherwise it would probably just be panic and doomsday cults with everyone beating drums and rocking side to side at Sergels Torg, but the information we get is not impossible to interpret.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You see every day which planes are up, where they are, small flashes about other things, sabotage, statements, threats \u2013 not very difficult.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Radcliffe also went to Moscow directly after Kaliningrad so he brought some strength behind the message he delivered from a flexing first strike package.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stealing a bit from johanno1.se last Wednesday, I hope you are in there reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Ropucha has left the Baltic Sea according to Proxima who daily praises my naval knowledge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the Northern Fleet, a submarine, a destroyer, and a frigate have arrived, the frigate seems to be used as an escort to the shadow fleet and both apparently move in and out via Denmark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Four Kalibr ships (guessing corvettes) are at sea and probably also the two seaworthy submarines in the Baltic Fleet. This because A8 Poseidons have been flying around for a few weeks long before the submarine from the Northern Fleet entered the Baltic Sea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a whole half-sunken underwater fauna of ships in the Baltic Fleet where Ukraine has damaged some earlier, quite a few are not seaworthy, a group is modernized and so on \u2013 I have a bit of difficulty estimating the number of combat-ready ships among the approximately thirty larger surface combatants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We can assume there are more than what we listed above, however it is interesting why ships from the Northern Fleet are being moved into the Baltic Sea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why then pull away a Ropucha?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Doesn\u2019t Russia need to reinforce, for example, Kaliningrad going forward?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They seem to have an acute shortage of landing tonnage, Ukraine has sunk a couple and they were already few before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I can think of three reasons \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– needed for landing northwards, Svalbard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– needs protection from Ukrainian drone attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– needs protection from our retaliation which we have now promised to carry out if there is escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

None of these options are particularly good except maybe the UA drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Staff exercises have also been held in Kaliningrad and Belarus in addition to preparations for mobilization, and then another exercise with the \u201cnavy\u2019s army corps\u201d which I interpret as the ground units tied to the navy in Kaliningrad?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 11th AC itself is still towards Ukraine. The number was only 2,500 in the exercise, there are a couple of special units tied to the navy also not in Ukraine so they have probably trained with what they had left maybe?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have not seen anything about the 11th AC being moved back to Kaliningrad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/baltic-monitor.com\/en\/issues\/2026-08-10<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Belarus they also train constantly but at a lower level \u2013 no large exercises but something is always being practiced. Here was a recent one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/reform.news\/en\/belarus-holds-exercise-with-military-commandant-units\/amp<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here was an exercise where they got angry at our signals intelligence ship that was signal spying, go Sweden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/voennoedelo.com\/en\/posts\/id19258-swedish-spy-ship-approaches-russian-baltic-fleet-drills<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And here they practice defending against air attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/tass.com\/defense\/2177925<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I checked earlier this summer what exercises were in the pipeline and all our exercises have been completed for some time now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Didn\u2019t find any Russian ones either but that doesn\u2019t seem to stop either us or them from training intensively with everything we have right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then we have this, Ukraine can hardly determine where these units are supposed to go so they probably say Chernihiv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

That could absolutely be the case but it could also be a first movement of units intended for the Baltics which from there have an 8-hour drive to the eastern border of the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will this die out and calm settle \u2013 probably not so we have a new normal to relate to at least.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Are we in Europe still dependent on the USA \u2013 yes, I guess some capability and coordination at the spearhead would like to keep the USA around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the increased threat, we will soon see the USA\u2019s intentions, either they are with us through this and hold our hand or they start pulling back more capability. You can be completely sure that Putin has WhatsApped Trump so there is smoke around the show of force in Kaliningrad because he didn\u2019t like that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Either they drop their economic saber-rattling against us or they take the shortcut via Iran and impose sanctions on one or some of our banks so we get a head start in the upcoming financial crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is always value in discussing the worst outcome because that is what you should prepare for but maybe it\u2019s time to drop the trash-talking of the USA now and focus on things that are good if the above does not materialize. A fairly clear breaker that would give us black on white where the USA stands in this mess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have also reached a conclusion with our discussions about Operation Baltikum so we don\u2019t need to grind on that anymore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With what we have just seen \u2013 Europe has good intelligence situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If this escalates further the Baltics will mobilize with or without us. The situation in the Baltic Sea makes transport from Sweden and Finland impossible if the temperature rises just two more degrees. A whole mechanic battalion on a ferry can simply be too attractive a target to let through and a full ship captain always works just like with U137 where the drunken sailing story refuses to die 40 years later.<\/p>\n\n\n

Unfortunately, Poland and Germany have probably locked themselves in Lithuania and Latvia south of the Daugava, Poland has a large defense force but the border with Belarus is long, with Kaliningrad even longer, and Germany has only one brigade in the area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I would so infinitely like to see France, Denmark, Sweden, UK, NL, Belgium, Portugal, and Spain deploy the light infantry they have available between Rezekhne and Tartu for trench digging but am slowly starting to accept that this will not be the case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is more escalation \u2013 launching a first strike package over Kaliningrad with capabilities hardly ever seen in the air before or a calm, low-intensity border defense in Eastern Baltics?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are then into explanatory models that are not very attractive but it is what it is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USA\/Trump is right about one thing \u2013 we damn well have to take care of our eastern border ourselves. That we blink when the USA leaves is directly embarrassing and unworthy of Napoleon\u2019s descendants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have previously discussed good dates for war in the Baltics, Midsummer when the Balts take this as seriously as we Swedes, the darkest July-August when all of Europe is on vacation, and then sometime in October when the ground bearing capacity becomes poor until it freezes over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I am a bit torn about the timeline here IF Putin does not let himself be deterred \u2013 Russia intended to attack sometime after the turn of the year 2022 but China held them back until the Olympics were over, we know that. The then CIA chief visited in November 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now the CIA chief has been on a visit and the threat level is equivalent to autumn 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Duma election in September is popularly considered to be one of the blocks and it is September 20-21.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US midterm election in November?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far, I think Trump\/Witkoff\/Kushner negotiating with Putin has been a godsend for Putin, so I guess the thoughts in the Kremlin go like this: preferably they do not want to torpedo the GOP before the midterms because then they might face a war-hungry Congress and Senate instead?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If there were to be war now after Trump removed all capability from the Baltics, what would that do for the GOP before the midterms?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not positive, I guess, bad news can have a big impact on how people vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So maybe we still have time?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A mobilization after September 21 would not provide offensive capability before roughly New Year’s even if Russia has hidden capabilities, you know this if you have read the posts, and that Russia today has two army corps at the northern border they can deploy, FSB, SVR, GRU special forces, and Rosgvardia\u2019s new mechanized army units.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just trying to reason about a timeline, that\u2019s all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One more thought about the tripwires we have in the Baltics, north of the Daugava river there is a British and Danish battalion together with a Canadian-led brigade where various countries have contributed capabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They are there under the battle plans we have had previously \u2013 tripwire, increased threat level, build up with more units, acute war risk \u2013 drive in the sledgehammer and win the war by knockout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now that was not the campaign plan we got from the newspaper BILD so what happens to these units in the event of a worst-case scenario where Russia acts and takes a chance?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Danes and Canadians can retreat over the Daugava with losses but the British are up in NW Estonia and stay where they are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What are their orders, have they read the newspaper BILD and understand that they will have to fight without reinforcements, a modern version of Custer\u2019s last stand with ten thousand tomahawk-wielding Russian bastards?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is demoralizing enough for the Balts that the USA pulled everything out and wished them good luck so if the rest of Europe\u2019s moral support is to \u201cbuild violent fortifications\u201d south of the Daugava river, the mood of defeat will spread. Then it will be exactly the opposite of all the fine agreements we double-stamped when we never thought there would be war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are now at the point where we either fight or NATO and Europe will collapse into chaos \u2013 it\u2019s that simple. In 1940 we saw excellence in weakness, inability to make decisions, fear, instability, and a whole bunch of other bad traits so history is against us. But we have also just shown our teeth around Kaliningrad, have a united EU, the USA is on the ball \u2013 that is positive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zelensky has just explained in fine Ukrainian that they are locked in Ukraine and cannot provide any direct capability otherwise \u2013 embarrassing that he even had to say that so some countries have probably sent inquiries, presumably the Balts who are starting to feel abandoned, lost the link.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many difficult decisions for our elected officials and staff leaderships to handle right now, don\u2019t envy them at all actually, as said it\u2019s easy to sit and complain in safety down in the Caribbean and take a sip of rum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Burnham has so far proven to be a strong war leader and Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Canada, and Spain have troops in the Baltics and say the right things in everything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Germany and Poland intend to defend Lithuania and the area south of the Daugava river, if we accept that Estonia and Latvia north of the Daugava river will be left to their fate then Russian ground forces will never get a meter over that river in a southern direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We must also avoid a Russian first strike, if you somewhat followed history lessons in school you know that wars start when someone starts so it is important that the decision chains are tuned and everyone is in the game if we intend to wait.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The shadow fleet lies like a string of pearls around all of Europe with several ships anchored outside their routes now \u2013 an idiot understands that these are the ships with cassettes of Gerandrones that can deliver a first strike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the Baltic Sea, Russia has quite a bit of naval capability at sea and the same there, if they get time to deliver a first strike they will cause damage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then all the missiles and drones they have stockpiled over the years, there will be a lot of scrap in the air if their launch ramps are not taken out before they press play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be at a time when everything that was flying around Kaliningrad is neatly lined up at 10-15 large airbases in Europe and Polish and German ground forces have ammunition and high-value equipment in central depots or parking areas. If I say Pearl Harbor, we are probably not completely off track so a Russian first strike must be avoided at all costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All prepared sabotage, hybrid warfare, and acts of war likewise \u2013 start arrests today and clean up among gangs, criminal clans, Russian churches, and Russians in general. Basements in some mosques should probably also be searched as they are a good candidate for weapons caches and bomb making \u2013 especially those state-supported from Iran and Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We should encourage the Kurds to stockpile weapons in their meeting places instead, they are always on the right side of history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It has not escaped me at all that when we a few years ago raised that the criminal clans and gangs in Europe, and Sweden, were a threat to democracy, one got an SD label at best \u2013 now today it is confirmed beyond all reasonable doubt that Russia, Iran, and China pay all these to carry out attacks around Europe which they gladly agree to as long as they get paid.<\/p>\n\n\n

If we enter a twilight zone, they will switch to a coordinated campaign to murder politicians, high-ranking officers, and key personnel such as pilots and other specialists on technical platforms. Those who a few years ago dismissed everything as election propaganda made a big mistake.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe has not been this close to a war since the early 1980s, and wrong decisions, lack of decisions, too much deliberation time, or slow decision-making chains can catapult us straight into a protracted war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Determination, overwhelming force, napalm, and aerosol weapons are how we achieve peace in our time, sprinkled with cluster munitions and sticky little butterfly mines\u2014then there will never be war again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then, of course, a paid subscription to my Substack, that is still the safest path to eternal peace, and then not even the butterfly mines are needed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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