We have now reached the strategically important and acutely critical moment for Europe’s security that I shall go on vacation \u2013 back to the Caribbean again at the end of September just in time for the hurricane season in this year’s super – El Nino.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There will probably be a few posts, but the broad reporting will be temporarily paused because I can’t handle dipping the chips while trying to write with two Mariestad long cans in the other hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then we’ll be back again at full throttle, I just found out that the project is three years long so I wonder what condition one will be in after a total of five years in the Caribbean – probably unrecognizable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most people now agree that we are heading towards a global conflict, whether it will affect us in Europe is still an open question until it is no longer so. That decision does not lie with us but with a person who is beginning to show clear symptoms of the disease mad empire dictator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He also leads a country where they have learned the hard way that if you don’t do as you’re told, you get a light underwear yank, tea is carefully splashed in your face, and then a mild shove out the window from at least the tenth floor. What is completely unreasonable for us is survival for that gang, you do what the madman tells you to do because it saves lives – not others’ but your own since what you are supposed to do is often to take lives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That is why we have closely marked the Baltics in the posts, as it would draw us geographically into the war instead of the arena being MENA or Asia. That does not make it any less urgent that Russia has prepared for this and is now completely ready with those preparations to the point that they have built gravel ramps down from the riverbanks on their side of the Narva River. This is done so that amphibious vehicles intended to cross the river into Estonia do not get stuck in the soft riverbank already on their own side, so we can only hope that the Estonians have softened the ground well on their side of the river and reservoirs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We have, in rounds, suggested that the best outcome for us would be if Russia collapses internally, Belarus gains its freedom, Kaliningrad is demilitarized, and the USA gets its war with China where we contribute with capability but at the level of an expeditionary violent punitive expedition, and the conflict zone disappears in Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Selfish and insensitive \u2013 absolutely 100%, but I no longer believe that a global conflict can be completely avoided, the next best for us is that it is not fought geographically in Europe unlike all other global conflicts behind us. We are also not the ones starting any wars here, perhaps you have noticed, we want trade and peace but do not get it because other heads of state have gone too far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The pressure is building and the wrong people have taken over the helm in too many countries already. Xi Jinping just kicked out several officers from the defense leadership (again) so what is he not getting through is probably a question to start asking quietly. The pseudo-discussion that will probably now be held is whether we are at war, if it is a global conflict and all that. I am of the opinion that we crashed into full hybrid war at rocket speed this summer and possibly we will enter a twilight state going forward if the short-statured madman does not calm down. Ask any Iranian or Ukrainian, it is war, or Wildberries employees are also good to ask where they stand soot-faced looking out over the total write-off of Russia’s Amazon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Worth noting is that the time period between twilight state and full war can be a few days at worst so it is important not to get stuck in the pseudo-discussion for too long \u2013 the best is naturally to prepare for war already today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A good second option is to unleash Ukraine over the Baltic Sea already now so it becomes the new Black Sea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Never forget that Putin can end his prolonged torment already tomorrow simply by leaving Ukraine, that sometimes gets lost in the discussion. Apparently, according to the always credible Twitter bots, he has said that if he does not win anything he will lose his head, now it matters less whether the bot was in Indonesia or China because that statement is based in truth anyway – his own little fragile life is at stake here. In Russia, one only bows to strength and Putin does what he can to polish that image of himself. If he has to choose between genocide or his life, he chooses life every day of the week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There may still be a chance to draw the longest straw, the world’s arms factories are red-hot and people have gotten used to reading war in red on the headlines. If Russia suffers an absolute crushing defeat enough to make China worried, they will crawl back into their den and the world can have peace. But it requires that some country is dragged into the street dust for this and so far it can only be Russia. For a long time, this was relatively easily achievable but I hope that if Russia is thrown into internal conflict it might deter others. A good start is probably to unleash Ukraine over the Baltic Sea as said because that would make it significantly harder for Putin to escalate against us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then it would be good if we and Ukraine keep an eye on Russian movements from the northern front up towards the Baltics. Europe cannot\/will not\/wants not\/dares not (just pick) strike the easy target preventively on the road before they spread out in the starting grouping in the terrain but if we ask Ukraine for help and give them everything they point to maybe they can solve it for us. Two army corps knocked out on the road would make Putin weak in the country’s eyes – good good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We have had a violent campaign for paid subscription to my Substack during spring and summer which has led to a few paying subscribers \u2013 big thanks to those of you who managed the emotional storm to press the dark yellow button and win eternal peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I hope those of you who subscribe can manage a few weeks of semi-silence with the knowledge that it will be full throttle again this fall in the afterburner – like a Coca-Cola bottle with dropped Mentos roughly, don’t give up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Those of you who read the posts regularly but have not yet dared to take this life-changing step will during the fall get the chance to enter a paid subscription that changes your lives for the better. If it is a gray autumn day with whipping rain from the side and a grumpy boss nagging about deadlines, all this heavy stuff disappears with just a feather-light button press. Then it becomes like a midsummer beautiful morning mist with light harp music in the background flanked by two blue-yellow little lemurs wrapped in a blue-yellow flag (that is, first painted in blue-yellow and then wrapped like mummies with cut-out holes for arms and legs so they can still run around).<\/p>\n\n\n
We started writing in 2022 and if you want, you can go to Cornucopia and read the comments from the first week after the war started when the media wrote about “Kiev falling in three days,” that works fine. I was dissatisfied with the Russian airborne landing, felt cheated, and wanted my money back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We are ahead of the curve and I tend to get stuck on something I push for way too long. Sent a few posts to the media but it’s just like with the Baltics, too far ahead so at best you get a laugh-cry reaction and then when it\u2019s obvious, analysts flood out of the walls in a deluge after a quick recalibration and slide straight onto the editorial page. Now it seems every pundit has known since the birth of Jesus that the Baltics have always been the next target, for example. If you want peace, you prepare for war, and that preparation has a long runway. You don\u2019t start thinking about preparations when the opponent only needs to degrease the gun barrels already pointed straight at your refineries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now we have broadened the reporting to global conflict and will continue \u2013 after long nagging since autumn 2025 about the Baltics, we reached the point where it became mainstream paired with what seems to be our correct assessment that Europe does not intend to defend the area north of the Daugava River in the way our agreements promised the Baltics. The discrepancy we picked up on about a year ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Does this have any news value \u2013 absolutely not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But it\u2019s always fun when suspicions and putting the puzzle together turn out to have substance in a situation where the puzzle pieces are still few. The feeling of the last piece in a big puzzle is always satisfying, bought a big Christmas puzzle a few years ago and was completely hooked, sitting and fiddling with it all Christmas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I have the highest possible unreserved respect for Ukraine \u2013 they are dying for us even if that may not be the original purpose of their effort. It\u2019s young, old, women and men lying in trenches for months on end with daily danger to their lives. What we have; family, job, salary, savings, career, further education (a work course a year), kids playing football, helping with homework, Friday cozy time with the wife \u2013 all that they have had to put on hold to lie soaking wet in a trench and risk their lives. The family at home lives in ongoing trauma and doesn\u2019t know how they will make it through the month, and there\u2019s nothing you can do where you lie in your trench.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No matter how many layers you peel away, you can\u2019t escape the fact that they stand between us and a war where we and our children will lie in trenches in the Baltics cursing our misfortune if Ukraine falters. It is incomprehensible how arrogant Europe has been since 2022, incomprehensible on all levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A violent global conflict doesn\u2019t come every ten years either, so we are in our generation\u2019s great whirlpool which we can do nothing about. But we can choose what we do and I think actively following this is the least one can do for oneself until the effort necessarily needs to be increased, if we get there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The amount of useless knowledge I have acquired just by sitting and reading raw data and doing my own analyses is enormous. If you rely on pre-packaged, pre-analyzed, and tailored information, you buy a ready-made package with an angle \u2013 always an angle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cBut then we get your angle\u201d you scream now \u2013 yes, maybe you do but it is indisputably the best.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Especially the USA has been exciting to follow as one grew up with a clear image that is now torn apart, soaked, and finally scrubbed against a dull rasp to remove the last tribute text to them on the chalkboard. Then of course they will do a complete turnaround, save the world even those who don\u2019t want to be saved, and release movies about it on Netflix for 40 years where everyone else was amateurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In 1917, the Germans were not worried at all about the USA, which had a defense force of 130,000 and barely any weapons. After that, 25,000 Americans per week flooded into France up to a total of 2 million well-armed and eager to fight. Then the German emperor abdicated, the war was lost and the empire fell \u2013 you should not underestimate the USA was the free lesson of the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Doing your own analyses teaches you a lot and we all start with some starting point that must get so many cracks in it that you reluctantly change your position \u2013 but it must be based on facts, not propaganda or ideology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Here we first chase the damn rooster, pick it to then grill it slowly over a welding flame so we get the best chicken burger you can get for money. The bread is a month-long sourdough with crispy seeds sprinkled on top by two little lemurs in white silk gloves, one little seed at a time. Those two are unpainted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I never cease to be amazed at how indifferent people are to all this suffering, war in our time is one bad decision from Putin away from landing in our own laps \u2013 and on a good day he is just incredibly unstable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Have thought a lot about the Danes sitting where they sit in eastern Baltics and spelling their way through the defense plan in the BILD article with their school German.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I completely got tired of the election because the mudslinging is monumental from all eight. Had a \u201cbig election thread\u201d going which is more of a deep dive into history with lots of exciting anecdotes from the last thousand years but lost the drive, will see if I find the motivation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The parliamentary election was easy, without L over the parliamentary threshold no Tid\u00f6 law. I think the last four years have been better than the previous 16 years with the Alliance and then S, so why try to change something that works.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
My municipality is excellently managed term after term because they focus on delivering service to the citizens they have as neighbors and traditions are carved in stone here. When the local lunch restaurant has potato pancakes with lingonberry jam and bacon on Tuesdays, lunch guests travel up to an hour for their plate. You know where the police force is at lunchtime on Tuesdays at least, and judging by the portion sizes they probably don\u2019t get much done the rest of the shift so a good time window to commit serious crimes for those of you thinking about extra income. The politicians always cooperate in a whole bunch of parties in some coalition, and if you pursue bad politics the neighbors immediately start glaring sourly at you \u2013 that\u2019s exactly how it should be with a constantly swinging Damocles sword of spiteful Jante Law neighbors who are just happy it\u2019s Tuesday lunch.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
We have now reached the strategically important and acutely critical moment for Europe’s security that I shall go on vacation […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"\n