{"id":5978,"date":"2022-03-07T12:47:44","date_gmt":"2022-03-07T11:47:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-03-07-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-20T12:17:02","modified_gmt":"2026-09-20T10:17:02","slug":"2022-03-07-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-03-07-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-03-07"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>12:47<\/h2>\n<p>According to reports (USA I believe), Russia has now deployed 90% of its available units.<br \/>\nI interpret this as 90% of the operational units that have been mobilized are now deployed.<br \/>\nOf those deployed in the fighting, the majority are likely out of fuel, out of ammunition, without food, and with combat effectiveness close to zero now that winter has truly set in. A couple more senior officers have been killed, including one from the VDV.<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nReinforcements are on the way from metropolises like Vladivostok and we have all seen the footage of the train with civilian trucks marked with Z. Russia therefore does not have much easily accessible.<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nThere is so little combat information that it mostly boils down to who said what and which city has been shelled. Basically, the only places I find are Irpin and Babynsti, which are not particularly strategic.<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nUkraine has reportedly lost 10% of its tanks and if we entertain the thought that their operational units are reduced by 10%, it means their combat-effective brigades are basically at full combat strength. These are backed by a large number of national guard and militia battalions that work very well to secure and clear captured terrain.<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nI will eat my right shoe if Ukraine does not go on the offensive now \ud83d\ude42<br \/>\nDown south, the Russians still have some advance, but I believe that is highly temporary as Mariupol and Odessa are primary targets and take all resources.<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nIf Ukraine does not launch a counteroffensive now, I will first have to eat a shoe, but that also means it opens the door for Putin to freeze the conflict and claim victory so he can stay in power, and that would be unfortunate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>12:49<\/h2>\n<p>The media still have some kind of \u2013 &#8220;Russian attacks intensify&#8221; reporting right now. I find it extremely hard to see that the Russian attacks are intensified beyond what they were on day 1 of the invasion and that this is therefore pure lies.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>12:51<\/h2>\n<p>Now I have read several different users in various days\u2019 threads writing that the media has used &#8220;good journalistic practice&#8221; and &#8220;only written verifiable information,&#8221; &#8220;not guessing like in this thread,&#8221; etc.<br \/>\nWhat they completely miss is that by writing &#8220;Russia is winning,&#8221; &#8220;Kiev is falling,&#8221; &#8220;Ukraine cannot hold out in the long run,&#8221; the media have completely abandoned good journalistic practice and guessed wildly and incorrectly.<br \/>\nAnyway, more than just this thread has seen this, it is called defeatism doctrine now?<br \/>\nIn the long run, this is what has allowed Putin to remain in power; now everyone is supposed to be afraid of nuclear weapons, food shortages, power outages, and refugees.<br \/>\nOne must thank Ukraine for exposing Putin\u2019s hand \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>12:52<\/h2>\n<p>The terror bombings with artillery and air are best countered with MANPADS, some more advanced air defense smuggled in, TOSHKA-U against Russian war airbases in Russia, Bayraktar drones, and planes from Eastern Europe.<br \/>\nRight now it looks damn bleak but the artillery has almost run out of ammunition, missiles are gone, and the air force probably has no more than a week or two of ammunition left?<br \/>\nNow that the ground offensive has been stopped, there is certainly frantic activity for this and I think one should refrain from thinking Ukraine should give up to avoid a bloodbath, as everything so far would have been in vain. After the war, the EU will have to pay to repair the country and in the long term they will join the EU so they are fighting for something positive.<br \/>\n&#8211;<br \/>\nIf a tactical nuclear warhead is released, the countermeasure is a no-fly zone the same day.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>12:53<\/h2>\n<p>I think this is increasingly about how to stop Putin from finding a way out of this so he ends up dangling rather than a Russian victory. In the first days, I thought Ukraine had won if they only lost their territory east of the Dnieper, so they have really surprised.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>21:43<\/h2>\n<p>We will probably have reason to return to this until Friday but now Russia is apparently going on the offensive again.<\/p>\n<p>What counts as &#8220;deployed in combat,&#8221; is the convoy included, 65 km out of fuel?<\/p>\n<p>I bet a month\u2019s salary that by Sunday at the latest this renewed offensive will be without gas and by then they will have taken a few insignificant towns, not Kiev and Kharkov. Possibly Mariupol.<\/p>\n<p>Again, their losses will soar.<\/p>\n<p>From what I can gather, Ukrainian units are relatively intact and have maintained combat effectiveness and they also take the opportunity to rest and slip through a lull when it is calm.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>12:47 According to reports (USA I believe), Russia has now deployed 90% of its available units. I interpret this as [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[33,21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5978","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-arkiv01","category-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>2022-03-07 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-03-07-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2022-03-07 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"12:47 According to reports (USA I believe), Russia has now deployed 90% of its available units. 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