{"id":6022,"date":"2022-03-22T10:00:56","date_gmt":"2022-03-22T09:00:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-03-22-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-20T15:16:16","modified_gmt":"2026-09-20T13:16:16","slug":"2022-03-22-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-03-22-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-03-22"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:00<\/h2>\n

Since I guessed about the 80th Air Assault brigade earlier, it’s probably good that we know they are also involved in the assault on Kherson, which seems to be a battle across the entire area between Mykolaiv and down to outside Kherson.<\/p>\n

“Ukrainian 80th AirAssault Brigade liberated a number of settlements in Mykolaiv Oblast, most likely in the north near Pisky and Inhulka. We\u2019re waiting for more details”.
\nhttps:\/\/militaryland.net\/ukraine\/invasion-day-26-summary\/<\/a>
\n\u2014
\nWe know they have rolled up the 28th Mechanized from Odessa previously.
\n\u2014
\nI have guessed that the 59th Mechanized is also participating in the fighting against Kherson and that the 17th Tank brigade would be involved but they are probably engaged in defensive fighting against the Russian attack on Kryvyi Rih.
\n\u2014
\nSo we have four of Ukraine’s best brigades in this battle and if you look at the map, I think it looks like they are trying to come from the southwest towards Kherson, maybe within artillery range to take out the bridge or deny the Russians access to the bridge through direct fire from tanks? Everyone who has done military service surely remembers that you didn\u2019t have to be in the crossroads but just within shooting range for it to count as taken \ud83d\ude42
\n\u2014
\nOn the map, it also looks like a small peninsula controlled by the Ukrainians down towards Kakhovka, which is the other crossing, but that might rather be because the Russians use the roads and land in between, so it\u2019s not counted as controlled since it is right between two attack wedges. However, shooting range to that bridge is just as important as shooting range to the bridge in Kherson.
\n\u2014
\nIf I may guess again, I think the reserves southwest of Kiev, the 3rd Tank brigade and 15th Mechanized, have not been moved down since there is still a risk that Belarus crosses the border or alternatively they are currently being used to roll up the encirclement around Kiev. Anyway, I don\u2019t think they are down near Kherson.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:17<\/h2>\n

Can\u2019t find much about Mariupol but before Putin can parade captured soldiers, they are still running around there.
\n\u2014
\nI still don\u2019t see how they can be relieved other than through a very active free war across the entire area at the southern front and drone attacks against the worst weapons, ships, TOS-1 and MLRS.
\n\u2014
\nI think it would be morale-boosting for Ukraine to see videos of fighting smiling Ukrainians in Mariupol and I hope they post them. Now the marine infantry has probably landed there and according to the blogger, reinforcements are being sent from the northern front down there but one hopes Ukraine can launch some counteroffensives along the northeastern front so that these units are freed up. However, reserves are being brought forward from all over Russia so a lack of soldiers to try to storm Mariupol is unfortunately not the case. The road up from Rostov-on-Don must become column 2.0 very quickly but unfortunately they can also bring them in by boat to Berdyansk or via Crimea.
\n\u2014
\nAs previously said, the only way for the defenders is mobile combat in groups and platoon size across the entire area all the time, day and night. They steal ammunition from the Russians. If they manage this, it could work out because 4 brigades are no small matter and they are elite units with combat experience. The Russians have so far not managed to meet this type of combat but if they can box units into geographical areas, surround and then basically storm over them, it is possible to defeat them, but small mobile groups slippery as eels are rarely caught and if they are, it is a lost group, not decisive.
\n\u2014
\nAnyway, what absolute heroes holding out!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:41<\/h2>\n

I choose to ignore threats or warnings about C-weapons, attacks on Poland, tactical nuclear charges, etc.
\nFirstly, it is impossible to determine if it is psyops or not and secondly, it is meant to scare us into submission. The West owes the defenders of Mariupol not to even blink, in my opinion.
\n\u2014
\nThe day Putin manages to get a military unit to release C-weapons or a tactical nuclear charge is a whole new situation and I don\u2019t believe for a second that the West will let it pass without hitting back hard because then it suddenly becomes self-preservation kicking in.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:52<\/h3>\n

If this is true;<\/p>\n

Oh, the Russians have no more than 11 BTGs attacking from across the Dnipro at Kherson\u2026
\nUkraine probably has the same number just in mechanized and armor and a lot of infantry.
\n11 x 600 or something is a serious blow for Russia when they cannot retreat across the Dnipro in the not too distant future.
\nIt will be a nice video sequence when they line them up in a field and Anonymous hacks the video onto every state TV channel in Russia.
\n\u2014
\nIt\u2019s not huge numbers against Mariupol either, 14 BTGs against Ukraine\u2019s 4 brigades. I guess marine infantry, VDV, and rebels are not included.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:56<\/h3>\n

Summing it all up along the entire front, the Russians do not have a numerical advantage in these BTGs. Added to that are the VDV and other assorted units and Ukraine\u2019s large numbers are National Guard and Territorial Defense units but that is not exactly an overwhelming superiority on this map?
\n\u2014
\nIn fact, if they can beat the Russians west of the Dnipro at Kherson and then get the brigades forward via Zaporizhzhia \u2014 with air defense as some user constantly writes \u2014 they should be able to push down towards Mariupol since there are only 6 BTGs in the area and a couple are surely moving towards Mariupol.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:00 Since I guessed about the 80th Air Assault brigade earlier, it’s probably good that we know they are also 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