{"id":6036,"date":"2022-03-24T12:16:19","date_gmt":"2022-03-24T11:16:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-03-24-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-20T16:57:59","modified_gmt":"2026-09-20T14:57:59","slug":"2022-03-24-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-03-24-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-03-24"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:16<\/h2>\n

If you put the puzzle together here, there have been several major strikes against maintenance depots in the past week…
\n-the tank wagons have jumped up with some train set or so in the loss figures.
\n-Berdyansk was a significant hit where a lot of ammunition and fuel went up in smoke.
\n-strikes in Belarus that were “exercises”.
\n-ammunition depot in Luhansk that “the Russians themselves shot out”.
\nSurely something more we don’t know about, I thought Belgorod slipped by in the feed but can’t find anything.
\nEither they have infiltrated deeply for real or Ukraine has gotten, or claimed to have gotten… better long-range strike capability (i.e. covert ops by the West).
\n—
\nIn Berdyansk it looks, as the blogger writes, like a direct hit with a precision weapon. It is not within artillery range from Mariupol and I don’t know the range of the Turkish drones but it’s a bit off.
\n—
\nRostov-on-Don is probably an important maintenance hub now and the road into Ukraine should be a prioritized target to stop and there should be huge depots there.
\n—
\nThinking one more round, hidden Western operations to take out all maintenance that ends the war would be infinitely much easier for the West than imposing a no-fly zone or war with NATO. Then the Russian invasion army will eventually abandon their positions and march home to Russia entirely on their own. Donbass and Crimea will go up in smoke just like that.
\n—
\nOne might guess that the TOS-1 around Mariupol is also gone since they were a gamechanger and maybe MLRS too? Also someone who has seen the “for sale” ads for apartments in Crimea go up by some million percent and all who wanted to sell were Russians.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:22<\/h3>\n

I know I’m not objective but in times of war like this when Russia is the aggressor it is wrong to try to give both sides’ perspectives.
\nAs media, you should ONLY give the right side’s perspective and even if they exaggerate and you think you fall for propaganda, you should report it with “Ukrainian sources state”.
\nThis is because the West now needs undivided support for Ukraine, we must not waver or become afraid and this is best done by reporting what the Ukrainian side wants to be reported.
\nTo IN ANY WAY blame Ukraine or have understanding for Russia is not the right time now, historians can argue about that later.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:41<\/h2>\n

I know I keep harping on Kherson and that everyone’s eyes are on the Kyiv front but there is still full speed around Kherson,
\n“Heavy battles on the border of Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. Ukrainian army shot down an aircraft and cruise missile overnight \u2013 Head of Mykolaiv regional administration”.
\nhttps:\/\/liveuamap.com\/<\/a>
\nStanislav \u2013 Oleksandrivka is in Ukrainian hands.
\nIt IS damn hard to maintain the units west of the Dnipro for the Russians and that is what, the remnants of 7-8 BTGs that will be encircled so a solid victory for Ukraine that I think can already be counted.
\n—
\nThen the Russians are trying an encirclement at Izyum of a curve of the ceasefire line but I don’t see it going well at all considering the losses they are taking.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:55<\/h2>\n

Oh, if you look at the map below, Ukraine has moved 1-2 mechanized brigades and 1 armored brigade from west of the Dnipro to east of the Dnipro, maybe via Zaporizhzhia?
\n—
\nI BELIEVE they have reinforced up by Kharkiv and also the frontline north of Mariupol. I know there was a user who claimed that scenario when I thought they would roll over the Dnipro just like that when the Russians fled from Mykolaiv and Kherson airport.
\n—
\nThis means they have already counted the battles for Kherson as won… The 35th Marine Corps brigade seems to be participating now, I don’t really know where it was stationed before. The 80th Airborne is still active in that battle and the 28th Mechanized.
\n—
\nThey seem to have completely given up the defense of Kryvyi Rih and are focusing on cutting the bridges over Kherson and Khakovka instead, that signals quite a bit about how things are going for the Russians west of the Dnipro that Ukraine has moved away heavy brigades.
\n—
\nIt would be welcome if these elephants could break the encirclement of Mariupol…
\n—
\nThe 17th Tank brigade is probably the reason the Russians are bleeding out at Izyum.
\n—
\nWhat a force to encompass large units on the flanks and reinforce the center as well as build up for a push down towards Mariupol. Still someone who doesn’t believe Ukraine will throw out the Russians entirely on their own \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:55<\/h3>\n

https:\/\/militaryland.net\/ukraine\/deployment-map\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:23<\/h2>\n

The 12:48 update we have probably guessed, that Ukraine would exploit the calm between wave 1 running out and the reserves arriving. Ukraine is doing exactly this and trying to get a decisive outcome. Provided Putin is not removed, there will be no decisive outcome so then we have to hope that the mechanized brigades north of Mariupol can break the encirclement and that they take as much terrain as possible so the Russians have to “start over” in April.
\n—
\nPoint two is that we have guessed that the reserves will be thrown in as they come in the battles, the first reserves now must try to help with the encirclement at Kyiv for example. They are not reinforcing existing battalion-brigade structures because they have been shot away so it will be completely new units that have no experience from the previous month \u2013 all mistakes will be repeated!
\n—
\nWhat will happen assuming Putin doesn’t trip on the balcony railing?
\nWest of the Dnipro at Kherson and Khakovka the Russians will not get over again.
\nAround Kyiv it will also calm down and my money is on them throwing in a lot to try to encircle part of the ceasefire line, what is now going to hell up at Izyum.
\nIf you draw a line from Kharkiv \u2013 Dnipro and then push north from the southern offensive you have a large encirclement.
\nThere was some risk of that for a while in the beginning before the Russians decided to fall into the huge flytraps Kharkiv and Mariupol. So one must guess they have learned and are trying their own encirclement.
\n—
\nWhat can Ukraine then do? Hold around Kyiv and in the south west of the Dnipro and then continue to wage their 3D war in the area Kharkiv \u2013 Dnipro \u2013 Melitopol \u2013 Donetsk \u2013 Luhansk. That is a sufficiently large area but Ukraine will have difficulty with logistics. If they continue to hit the Russian logistics and deny them airspace it could go really well.
\nIf they are forced to a rapid retreat it will be a bloodbath.
\n—
\nGiving up Ukraine east of the Dnipro is a strategic loss, Putin freezes the war and over time he will increase pressure and the goal will always be an invasion of all Ukraine.
\n—
\nIn parallel with this, if one can start some revolution against Belarus, in Russia or in other former republics, Putin would be forced to send units there. My idea to run a larger landing fleet very slowly towards Vladivostok I think would be fun.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:49<\/h3>\n

Well, look at that, Kherson was contested on the Wikipedia map \ud83d\ude42
\nThe next thing that stands out is that Ukraine controls a couple of settlements towards Mariupol, if they take Volnovakha it might be possible to open a corridor there. If Mariupol is surrounded until Putin unleashes round two they are probably done.
\n—
\nIt will take time for the Russians to bring up reserves to the southern front so if Ukraine manages to get down to Mariupol and break the link to Rostov-on-Don Ukraine might achieve local successes in the next month against the Russian units remaining Tokmak and southwards, no encirclement but drive them over the land tongue to Crimea and close it off?
\n—
\nIf something like the above is achieved the threat from the south is almost eliminated and one can work on holding east of the Dnipro in the north and east?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:01<\/h2>\n

The map that the blogger posted with yellow showing what Ukraine has retaken, they have quietly made quite significant gains near Kherson.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Nrg8000\/status\/1506986354240294913?s=20&t=q31KTsH5jhNu8Krtcn-cZg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:16 If you put the puzzle together here, there have been several major strikes against maintenance depots in the past 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