{"id":6044,"date":"2022-03-28T00:30:26","date_gmt":"2022-03-27T22:30:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-03-28-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-20T16:59:38","modified_gmt":"2026-09-20T14:59:38","slug":"2022-03-28-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-03-28-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-03-28"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

00:30<\/h2>\n

This has been up for a while but this is what is now written –
\n”Ukrainian troops reached the border with Russia in Sumy region, while Russian forces have continued to put pressure on Ukrainian defenders in the vicinity of Izium in Kharkiv Oblast”.
\n-So they have pushed the Russians back to the border in one of the most fiercely contested areas, strength.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

00:37<\/h3>\n

Putin must get his war with NATO because it is too humiliating to get beaten by Ukraine or something like that?
\nWe will see what the Baltics have to offer, one might imagine that NATO only strikes Russian troops inside the Baltics and then through Polish units?
\nIt is possible to be defensive to the extent that you push the Russians back at the pace they roll into the Baltics and do not allow yourself to be provoked into crossing any Russian border.
\nIf you do not escalate more than the Russians, it will still be difficult with the stab-in-the-back legend but Putin is quite cunning.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:10<\/h3>\n

If Putin enters the Baltics with what he has left, it will be a two-day massacre with air strikes and then it stops.
\nIt will go so fast that the Russians will not have time to build a narrative and it will end with NATO not declaring war on Russia, they just beat Russia. Consider here that as soon as they cross the border they are on the move and exposed.
\n—
\nThen I believe, just like you, that this is Kremlin propaganda and that the media still have not learned (or do not want to learn) what propaganda is or are willing messengers of propaganda.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:15<\/h2>\n

Yes, sometimes you lose focus that this is a total war and that Russia is doing what they have always done in war, murdering and raping. Mariupol is unimaginable, we have long guessed that the losses were in the tens of thousands and now we have some kind of confirmation of that, it is genocide and nothing else!!
\nHowever, you can scream out of frustration as much as you want, Russia is doing this because they can and nothing else so the only way forward is to deny them that opportunity by pacifying Russia through trade in the long run.
\nThose of you who think it is impossible \u2013 look at Poland and Ukraine will go the same way.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:27<\/h2>\n

Unfortunately, I see some signs that Ukraine is starting to lose some momentum, it may be due to difficulties with maintenance but on the positive side they have pushed the Russians back to the border in a couple of places on the northern front between Chernihiv-Sumy and the air defense is slowly starting to deny Russia airspace but the Russians seem to counter this with drone warfare and long-range weapons.
\n—
\nThe sore spot is Mariupol, it seems the Russians have reached the city hall and yesterday some videos were posted (from pro-Russian sources) with officers from the marine brigade who tried to sneak out in civilian clothes and today the blog showed that Zelensky offered the defenders to surrender. The condition must be terrible in the city, this is not how we keyboard warriors imagine heroes in war, you get surrounded, starve half to death and get a bullet in the head, but that is often how legends are born. Zelensky has also asked for materiel because without it you cannot reach Mariupol.
\n—
\nNow this is pure speculation but if those remaining of the four brigades start pushing north (and now the blogger wrote probably not because then it becomes a shooting range) and the mechanized brigades strike south towards Volnovakha it might be possible to save a symbolic force and the gain for Putin to take Mariupol would be less.
\nUnfortunately, I think the Russians will treat Azov as war criminals with a bullet in the head.
\nIt seems there are only three brigades in the encirclement now so has one already ceased to exist?
\nWhat is interesting in this context is that Putin somewhere believed that Ukraine would give up if Mariupol risked falling but Ukraine will absorb that loss without faltering. It will instead become history and the reason why Ukraine will never again be close to the Russian sphere but become a new Poland and Finland defending our eastern border.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Militarylandnet\/status\/1508349375562620930?cxt=HHwWhIC9-f7w3e4pAAAA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:40<\/h2>\n

It is almost unfair that as it looks today Putin can claim victory and get away with it if he manages to take little Donbass\u2026
\nRight now Ukraine is starting to roll up the front Kiev-Chernihiv-Sumy, there are about 5-6 mechanized and armored brigades along this stretch and according to earlier reports they dilute by assigning infantry companies a platoon of tanks or IFVs, so we have seen a formidable battle group working its way north. The defenders of Kiev are about a dozen national guard brigades who have hardly seen combat and the city is no longer threatened. Just this is quite incredible.
\n—
\nMaybe it will come to a point where to win this war it is not Ukraine that should throw out Russia but western influence so Belarus gets rid of Lukashenko and it becomes lively in Russia itself? If you ask me I think the CIA has already activated the whole colour-revolution protocol.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:14<\/h3>\n

My take has been that if Putin survives this, freezes the war and slips away then he WILL give birth to a stab-in-the-back legend and in 10 years be a threat, 180 million Russians feel wronged. One way for Putin to survive is if NATO goes all in and throws the Russians out of Ukraine but does not remove Putin, he makes a scapegoat. I think NATO has seen through this and tries by all means to get Ukraine to win WITHOUT war with NATO and at the same time create destabilization in Russia, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Georgia etc.
\n—
\nI also believe there is a ready plan for intervention if Ukraine had\/will lose, no-fly zone takes a day to establish. Now the whole West\u2019s SOF is in the international legion and there have been some explosions outside Ukrainian reach so if you ask me everything just below direct war with NATO is being used right now.
\n—
\nHowever, I understand what you mean with your reasoning and this was just how I have seen the stab-in-the-back legend.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:22<\/h3>\n

Yes, it is really about time to roll a bit of everything eastwards from the EU but maybe it is already happening?
\nField hospitals, barracks housing, food, construction, generators, fuel and all that civil society needs.
\nThe need is almost endless and west of the Dnipro it is relatively calm.
\nWe focus quite hard on weapons but the shortage is total on most things I guess.
\nI have not followed the developments here but if I were the EU I would pause quite a few aid and grant programs and put everything into the Ukraine fund and start purchasing this within the EU, not China.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:41<\/h4>\n

You probably have China in that mix ARVID22 and which side of the fence they sit on.
\nYes, maybe I believe too much in our dear leaders and that what we see now is cowardice but it is quite an interesting bait that Putin dangles in front of NATO which they do not bite on right now and if you ask me I do not think NATO is directly afraid to start a war with Russia considering how it has gone so far for them in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:42<\/h4>\n

XCV, there are 25,000 volunteers in the international legion and all of them have combat experience.
\nHard to distinguish between an active operator or a veteran, I think.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:51<\/h2>\n

On the Wikipedia map, there is quite a bit of red-blue shifting, I think, so Ukraine is probably pushing hard with what they have.
\nThe “calm” in the fighting is probably because the Russian offensive capacity is low to non-existent except in Mariupol and around Izyum, so they are entertaining themselves with terror bombing.
\n—
\nNow, as many have pointed out, there is a positive bias, but what is conspicuously absent is a Russian collapse somewhere, and I thought we would see that before the reserves arrived, like in Kherson or the Kiev pocket.
\n—
\nI want to add that you can get quite far with infantry when the opponent is Russia, so we shouldn’t be fixated on fuel and armor; meat soup and anti-tank rockets are a good start and ease the pressure on Kiev and Kharkiv, where there are a large number of National Guard brigades that can spread out in all directions. In fact, the best weapon in this war seems to have been infantry at company size with an assigned tank or IFV platoon together with drones.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:18<\/h3>\n

Oh, it was quite chaotic around Kiev \ud83d\ude42
\nBrovary is east of the Dnieper and could well be an attempt to relieve pressure on the units on the western side?
\nI\u2019m not clear now whether this is an encirclement at all, if the encircled units are trying to move toward Kiev or if those outside the encirclement are trying to break it or move toward Kiev to relieve pressure on the encircled units\u2026
\nThe artillery, is it only Russian or both Ukrainian and Russian?
\n—
\nIf the Russians haven\u2019t brought up large reserves, there are only a few dozen BTGs outside the encirclement west of the Dnieper.
\n—
\nYes, it feels as you write that it breathes desperation, there was talk of encirclement at Irpin and if they have reached Ivankiv, that is quite far north and the only way north goes northwest toward Ivankiv \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:32<\/h3>\n

Mattias J, you realize that what the EU gives is a drop in the ocean, you have a couple of billion people who get a bowl of rice a day. I have lived in countries where they ate every other day or something if they were lucky. Right now, I can\u2019t think of a country that needs more help from the EU than Ukraine. You don\u2019t really think that rich oil countries or China will rebuild Ukraine. It will be us and the USA who have to pay up.
\nWe give aid to \u2013 China, Russia, Iran, countries in Europe and various rogue states where the National Audit Office found that 90% of the aid was impossible to trace where it went.
\nBut sure, choose to misinterpret that I wanted to take infant formula from starving babies in Ethiopia \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:03<\/h2>\n

Now I have understood this, it has been nagging for a while.
\n—
\nWhen we see videos of Ukrainians, it is tactical behavior, single shots and always energetic and positive \u2013 the whole unit moves toward fire on target. There is a lot of infantry advance and they move like an organism.
\n—
\nThe Russians move sloppily, if they shoot it is to empty the entire magazine, they look unmotivated, are always surprised and shoot in the direction of the enemy, not on target. They move like a rabble and seem to have everything but combat on their minds.
\n—
\nUkrainian soldier equipment is many times better, I get the impression, and they almost have to be held back on a leash so they don\u2019t run off and shoot at the Russians. The Russians are the opposite, they just want to survive this.
\n—
\nThat the Russians have now mobilized third-rate troops who are supposed to take Ukraine with some sort of WW2 meat shield will end the same way, and I believe that Ukrainian infantry will be able to prevail if there is less armor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:10<\/h2>\n

All these videos with brutal Ukrainians that make us discuss Ukrainian war crimes rather than Russian ones, they are there for a reason \ud83d\ude42
\nI suggest we ignore them in the thread and focus on Russian war crimes, which is the essential thing.
\nA bit harsh, but if Ukraine wants to boil Russians in oil, they can do that; the Russians have a choice not to go and murder Ukrainians in their country.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:20<\/h2>\n

I think I can prove that there is a larger encirclement northwest of Kiev, or I prove nothing but think I understand it \ud83d\ude42
\nIf you look at the Wikipedia map below, Ukraine is within direct shooting range from the Ivankiv \u2013 Kiev road.
\nWest of it is Ukrainian land and east of it is the Dnieper.
\n—
\n10 communities are disputed and thus have Russian units there, and their only way out is the road up to Ivankiv, 13 BTGs have been suggested and that is not unreasonable if you look at the map what the advance southwest of Kiev contained and how many communities are still controlled by the Russians.
\n—
\nThey are stuck and the counterattack from the north is surely an attempt to open the encirclement.
\nWikipedia
\nhttps:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Template:Russo-Ukrainian_War_detailed_map<\/a>
\nRussian BTG
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/HN_Schlottman\/status\/1505687044349177861\/photo\/1<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:24<\/h3>\n

When the west of Kiev is cleared, one should be able to roll up the northern front toward Kharkiv provided the Russians don\u2019t bring up large reserves. There are about 10 brigades in Kiev that have barely been in combat and quite a few reserves southwest of Kiev waiting for the Belarus attack.
\nIt was also written in the thread that the Russians are having more and more difficulty getting down reserves and supplies from Belarus, sabotage one would assume?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

00:30 This has been up for a while but this is what is now written – ”Ukrainian troops reached the 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