{"id":6086,"date":"2022-03-31T11:03:46","date_gmt":"2022-03-31T09:03:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-03-31-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-20T20:47:23","modified_gmt":"2026-09-20T18:47:23","slug":"2022-03-31-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-03-31-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-03-31"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:03<\/h2>\n

I think the whole nuclear power and atomic bomb issue is surrounded by myths and rumors. Only recently have I understood that the other nuclear reactors in Chernobyl have been operational, or if they were new reactors. My previous perception of Chernobyl has mostly been from horror movies with flesh-eating mutants roaming around.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:33<\/h2>\n

Regarding Ukraine having defeated three BTGs near Malaya Rohan east of Kharkiv, which is somewhat incredible!<\/p>\n

The Russians have thrown everything against Izyum, so Ukraine must have tied up the two Airborne brigades there and the 17th Tank brigade which they moved there from Kryvyi Rih, and there have been very heavy fights.
\n—
\nKharkiv has had the toughest fighting along the entire front, and the brigades that have defended Kharkiv being able to defeat 3 BTGs in defensive positions should make the Russian staff sweat a bit. Many in this thread constantly point out that “if Ukraine attacks, it will be reversed and Russian defense is tougher” when the eternal optimist Johan talks about a Russian knockout loss.
\n—
\nRight now, what can best be described as a cleanup operation is underway between Chernihiv-Sumy, and that area will probably be recaptured within a couple of weeks. For this, they have likely used some of the 10 brigades that defended Kyiv now that the pressure has eased on Kyiv. This in turn eases the pressure on Kharkiv, and they can turn a couple of their 10 brigades eastward and move towards Kupiansk, which will cut off the units west of the Oskil river.
\n—
\nIf I may guess, I think Ukraine\u2019s mechanized and armored brigades that have been moved from west of the Dnipro and southwest of Kyiv to the entire former ceasefire line and southern front are now holding the pressure firmly against the Russians, and that the Russians are now abandoning the northern front so they won\u2019t be overrun in Donbass.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:45<\/h2>\n

And now for some positive news, Huliaipole and Orikhiv were contested on yesterday\u2019s Wikipedia map and are today blue, so Ukraine seems to be advancing southward with the mechanized brigades. Eventually, they will probably reach Mariupol, and that would be the really happy news of this war if they could hold out until they are liberated and avoid being executed with a shot to the back of the head.
\n—
\nI\u2019m not quite sure what to make of Kherson, to be honest. I understand that Ukraine has moved the heavy brigades via Zaporizhzhia to east of the Dnipro and left behind a mechanized, airborne, and some National Guard units. The Russians seem to be trying to move in the direction Kryvyi Rih \u2013 Zaporizhzhia still, while transporting units by train from Kherson to east of the Dnipro and mining the bridge. The only reasonable explanation I see is that Ukraine chose not to engage the Russian units west of the Dnipro but also did not see it as a threat, rather a battle they would win over time, and if the Russians retreated across the Dnipro, that\u2019s okay. In my world, that can only mean they have plans to catch a bigger fish if encircling 8-10 BTGs is not important enough \ud83d\ude42
\n—
\nAlso, the Russians are quite organized down there; mining the bridge, train transports, etc. indicate some organizational capability.
\n—
\nI\u2019m beginning to believe that it is Ukraine that is keeping the pressure up against the Russians along the eastern ceasefire line and not the other way around, and that the troop movements are necessary so that Donbass does not fall \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:10<\/h3>\n

Yes, what you write is something a user brings up every day, so these are not isolated incidents or anecdotes. The anecdotes are so many that it becomes a new normal.
\nI am frankly surprised by this. In the UK, the media have been staunchly pro-Ukrainian and have not tried to present both sides; Putin is the aggressor, period. In Sweden, the tentacles seem to have reached quite far, so the newspapers interpret this as news value from credible sources since they must be well aware of Russian psyops and probably believe they are neutral and only write what has news value. I personally have chosen only to read Ukrainian sources, aware that there is a positive bias, but that\u2019s okay. I don\u2019t read anything from pro-Russian sources. This blog and comment section are probably almost the media in Sweden that has most strongly maintained a fair line and not fallen for Russian psyops, and we probably owe that a lot to Lars\u2019s moderation of the thread. The trolls probably swim like a school of hammerhead sharks around the comment section but have difficulty getting in \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:33<\/h2>\n

The Russian retreat from Kyiv seems to be going so-so. I have interpreted it as instead of leapfrogging and starting with the units closest to the Ukrainians, they have probably done the opposite and started with those who have not had combat contact, and for the others, it has become a shooting range when they try to flee rather than retreat. The encircled 13 BTGs can probably be written off.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/OSINTua\/status\/1509426960241410051?cxt=HHwWhoCyudb0x_IpAAAA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:52<\/h2>\n

We all read Militaryland, and its maps are not bad,
\nhttps:\/\/militaryland.net\/ukraine\/invasion-day-35-summary\/<\/a>
\n-shooting range to Ivankiv so 13 BTGs trapped northwest of Kyiv.
\n-there will definitely be more encirclements south of Chernihiv-Sumy. The Russians are retreating north of Sumy \u2013 Chernihiv while the Russian units south of Chernihiv \u2013 Sumy have not yet retreated\u2026
\n-I\u2019m betting five hundred that the Ukrainians will try to reach Kupiansk going forward, which could be a nice encirclement.
\n-Severodonetsk will be encircled, and the Russians will go all in against Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, which if one guesses are veritable forts by now. Over time, when Ukraine has taken Kupiansk, they will move on to Svatove, liberate Severodonetsk, and then the Russians\u2019 offensive 2.0 will be over just as badly as round 1.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:03<\/h2>\n

Have you noticed that President Zelensky\u2019s response about ceding territory is that it can only be discussed after a referendum according to Ukrainian law? One must assume that it would be difficult to hold a referendum at the moment, so I interpret this as Ukraine intending to press on and reclaim its territory?
\nIt is also reassuring that Ukraine has not agreed to any kind of ceasefire.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:45<\/h3>\n

Yes, there is.<\/p>\n

The map below shows how many BTGs had targets southwest of Kyiv,
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/HN_Schlottman\/status\/1505687044349177861\/photo\/1<\/a><\/p>\n

I don\u2019t know exactly how far south they got, but some distance southwest of Kyiv, and they have not retreated north, or they are trying now and it\u2019s going so-so\u2026<\/p>\n

Look at the Polesia frontline on the map, Ukraine can deny the Kyiv \u2013 Ivankiv road with direct fire.
\nhttps:\/\/militaryland.net\/ukraine\/invasion-day-35-summary\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Hostomel was also a larger maintenance hub, and there are VDV units.<\/p>\n

Can they retreat in any other direction? To the east lies the Dnipro, and to the west is controlled by Ukraine, so the only way out for them was the road to Ivankiv and then north. They are trapped.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:45<\/h2>\n

We trained with MTLB in Borensberg during reserve officer training when Sweden had bought some Russian equipment, an interesting vehicle that has just become even more exciting with a turret.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/kemal_115\/status\/1509495576513200132<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:21<\/h3>\n

Many make the mistake of thinking that Russia has the numbers and equipment, but they only have that in the long term, several years.
\nIn the short term, it is Ukraine that can mobilize its reserves into functioning units with such equipment that they are superior to the Russians, and Ukraine has 900,000 reserves.
\n—
\nWe don\u2019t know a thing about Ukraine\u2019s losses, but for example, Konotop was blue and surrounded and today red, so they have certainly taken heavy hits too, but they grow faster than the Russians.
\n—
\nThe Russians have taken astronomical losses and had units encircled in Kyiv which they have to write off. I am quite convinced that it is now Ukraine putting pressure on Russia and not the other way around, but we won\u2019t get confirmation of that until they thunder into Donbass.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:26<\/h2>\n

We will see how this goes, but right now the encircled Russian units near Kiev are trying to retreat north along the road at Ivankov. According to what we have guessed, Ukraine has them under direct fire, so it could get quite lively there.
\nLet’s hope for good news tomorrow morning \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

\u201dUkrainian Ground Forces Command claim they\u2019ve counted \u201dalmost 700 units of equipment withdrawing towards Ivankov, towards the Belarusian border\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:03 I think the whole nuclear power and atomic bomb issue is surrounded by myths and rumors. 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