{"id":6120,"date":"2022-04-17T10:53:54","date_gmt":"2022-04-17T08:53:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-04-17-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-20T20:53:03","modified_gmt":"2026-09-20T18:53:03","slug":"2022-04-17-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-04-17-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-04-17"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:53<\/h2>\n

You don’t need to be a general to understand Putin’s war plan 2.0.
\nIn the south and north, the red tongues of advance are basically along the Donetsk oblast provincial border.
\nSo they have a plan with the level of detail \u2013 “advance along the border of Donetsk Oblast and encircle all Ukrainian units east of it”.
\nThe Russians never cease to surprise, they deliver almost every day. The only thing that can happen with the Izyum offensive is that it gets cut off from the north, runs out of fuel and meat soup, and at best makes a Kiev.
\nAs for the southern front, it’s probably just a matter of waiting until the Russians overstretch themselves and strike, something is probably going on in Kherson related to the air defense from Moscow lying at the bottom of the sea.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:21<\/h2>\n

At Kherson, the Russians seem to have around 7 BTGs, various OSINT sources surprisingly agree. These are elite units: VDV, naval infantry, Spetsnaz, reconnaissance, and guards. Then there’s probably some other bits and pieces, but Mariupol should keep most TikTok Chechens and DPR rebels busy with beach photography and insta videos of advances in already cleared residential areas that are safe.
\n\u2014
\nAccording to the latest map, Ukraine still has the 80th Airmobile Brigade in the fight, now confirmed that the 28th Mechanized has been moved up (according to open OSINT), the 35th Marine Corps Brigade and the 60th Motorized Brigade which is vehicle-borne with some tanks \u2013 totaling around 16 BTGs. The 5th Tank Brigade is down in Odessa and might have been moved up now that there is no landing operation, and the reserves I keep mentioning about SV near Kiev, there are a couple left that can be rolled down. We don’t know because Ukraine is keeping quiet about ongoing operations around Kherson.
\n\u2014
\nI think Ukraine can achieve at least 2:1 in heavy brigades and in addition there is almost unlimited infantry available for flank protection and occupying villages, a long snake of infantry following the mechanized advance one would guess.
\nWith Moscow’s air defense at the bottom, there should be a gap in protection for a period that Russia must fill by rolling out new air defense, and the US is probably glued to satellites providing Ukraine with targeting data on these. Right now, maybe locally there is no Russian air superiority west of the Dnieper at Kherson? Someone in the thread has already said that, but if you look at the map outside Kherson, it is very open terrain so advantage defender and you have to work forward quite cautiously I guess.
\n\u2014
\nThe critical mass is now to Russia’s disadvantage and if they focus on the Izyum offensive, Ukraine can concentrate against Kherson and retake it. If they succeed with the encirclement we thought would come around the fall of the Kiev Russians, it would be quite a scalp\u2014not numerically, but some of the best Russian BTGs would be lost. It is enough to have the bridges at Kherson and Khakovka (3 total?) under indirect or preferably direct fire to deny the Russians a retreat.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:29<\/h3>\n

I think so because it comes very timely and completely exploded. The Russians are well known for managing both sides, so both those throwing stones and Paludan?
\nI am extremely conflicted about this and understand it doesn’t belong to the thread. I think what Paludan does during Ramadan is extremely unnecessary but equally reprehensible is what the demonstrators are doing. They live in one of the world’s most tolerant countries and believe they have the right to use severe violence and the only reason they are allowed to do so is that the rest of the country does not use violence against them but respects our country’s laws and moreover the police try some kind of diplomacy. They could have surrounded the demonstrators, zip-tied them together and sent them to some camp in Norrland for forestry work for five years if they wanted, but we don’t do that.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:20<\/h2>\n

Very nice analysis about Mariupol LW, as usual it is probably a couple of miles closer to the truth than established media which now proclaims that “Russia has given the last defenders in Mariupol an ultimatum, surrender or die!”.
\nThis promised death will come much slower than the Chinese method with thousand paper cuts.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:24<\/h3>\n

Yes, the Russians have a capacity to learn over time and come back in round 2.
\nOne can only hope that the leaders of the free world have started to understand that and are working for a pacified Russia.
\nThe worst option is Putin at the helm after a loss in this war because then he will ensure that Russia comes back as a real threat in 10-15 years, or his successor.
\nFair trade agreements with the EU if they democratize and the republics get greater freedom or freedom, roughly.
\nSame as after the Soviet Union but this time we succeed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:34<\/h2>\n

Looking at Militaryland’s map, the pressure is probably quite high at the old ceasefire line since a mechanized brigade from the southern front has been moved to Donetsk and one of the brigades that has been lurking west of the Izyum offensive is now trying to plug the hole just below it.
\n\u2014
\nNothing has happened after Malynivka east of Kharkiv but worth noting is that just west of the town Malynivka was the natural obstacle so they have a pretty good starting position if they want to go straight east and cut all supplies to the Izyum offensive. Borova is still disputed on Wikipedia and when it becomes Ukrainian the only supply route down from Kupiansk is the one the two brigades at Malynivka can cut.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:01<\/h2>\n

In Expressen they bring up Aislin and Shaun Pinner quote;
\n“…refused to shoot because he was afraid” and that the Ukrainian soldiers are “criminals”. It cannot be verified under what circumstances the videos were recorded or if Aislin and Pinner had the opportunity to speak freely.’
\n\u2014
\nThis can be phrased in many different ways, my opinion is that the reporter did the bare minimum required so that he cannot be accused of bias, that is the last sentence. Since the probability that they are not speaking from the heart is 100%, the reporter should not have written that but rather “Pinner and Aslin bore signs of violence on their faces and seemed pressured when they gave their accounts in Russian captivity, it is very likely they were forced into these statements”.
\n(it is completely obvious, anyone can see it!)
\n\u2014
\nThe fact is that the article as a whole should have been titled \u2013 “Russia commits serious war crimes, parades prisoners and forces them to make statements critical of Ukraine, many prisoners are murdered in captivity in violation of the Geneva Convention”.
\n\u2014
\nThere are so many anecdotes that this has become a new normal and one can guess how much Russian propaganda we have received over the years from the news channels we trust. Very sad this, Ukrainians die for us and our media is a Putin megaphone. For example, a popular theory is that U137 was tricked by the CIA to navigate wrong with some secret system\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:14<\/h2>\n

It came the day after, now we have 2002 losses in IFVs for Russia, somewhat astronomical \ud83d\ude42
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/MFA_Ukraine\/status\/1515644076963553282\/photo\/1<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:26<\/h3>\n

Thought about this one more time, how many Swedish media do you think would post on the front page if Zelensky in a Facebook speech said “Russia, surrender or die in Ukraine”. At best it would have been, Zelensky said XX but these are difficult times for Ukraine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:11<\/h2>\n

Regarding Mariupol, in a few days the southern pocket near the port will probably fall, the Russians are posting some pretty good videos from there showing which areas they are taking.
\nThey will then be able to parade some prisoners provided that the Ukrainian defenders cannot evacuate themselves by sea with small boats to Azovstal, as it seems they have reached the shore between the port and Azovstal. Or there will be a breakout towards Azovstal through Russian lines again.
\nIn pro-Russian media, they call it “the small area Azovstal” that Ukraine still holds when it is the best fortified piece of land in all of Ukraine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:22<\/h2>\n

East of Kharkiv, the two Ukrainian brigades have apparently worked their way a bit east of Malynivka and captured Lebyazhe and Bazalievka. They are probably quite close now to cutting off the supply to the Izyum offensive. It only takes getting the roads within range of drones and indirect fire for it to be a resounding game over for the entire Izyum offensive even before the spring offensive has started.
\nThere are reportedly 22 Russian BTGs down there according to ISW.
\nhttps:\/\/liveuamap.com\/en\/2022\/17-april-ukrainian-military-in-counteroffensive-in-kharkiv<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:03<\/h3>\n

I have interpreted it as that two Ukrainian brigades, 92nd Mechanized and 4th Tank, have taken Malynivka quite recently and at least north of it has been Russian territory.
\nThe Ukrainian brigades that have been waiting west of the Izyum offensive have been positioned further east than the settlement that has now been retaken, so I believe that has also been Russian. For quite a while, Malynivka was a small blue dot in a sea of red.
\n\u2014
\nNo, I think it has been Russian areas that they have now taken back, instead of pushing a Russian and pressing on with a super long column towards Kupiansk, they are broadening both north and south to cover their flanks. My two cents \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:10<\/h2>\n

21:28 my highly personal opinion is that if Ivan Green gets to load up a battalion of marine infantry and sail down towards the Black Sea, then the West’s sanctions are as toothless as has been guessed. We buy gas and Russian banks still have access to SWIFT, so it is not exactly a Ukrainian fist they have received from the West.
\nBut if we allow them to reinforce by sea, I think a line has been crossed, so some suitable fleet simply has to intern the ship until the war is over if they attempt a troop movement.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:53 You don’t need to be a general to understand Putin’s war plan 2.0. 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