{"id":6128,"date":"2022-04-21T09:20:19","date_gmt":"2022-04-21T07:20:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-04-21-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-20T20:54:28","modified_gmt":"2026-09-20T18:54:28","slug":"2022-04-21-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-04-21-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-04-21"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>09:20<\/h2>\n<p>I find it telling that on day 3 (actually it started a few days earlier) of the much talked about spring offensive where Russia was supposed to go all in against; Kharkiv, Donbass, Mykolaiv and take Mariupol, there is not a single new place name among the captured towns\/villages\/communities in pro-Russian channels and on other Swedish comment sections they are arguing about the CIA, USA, money, ideology, etc., it almost sounds like there is no war.<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nThere is simply nothing to talk about in this all-out offensive that Lavrov rang the bell for. Already contested communities have been lost in a few places but apart from up in the Horlivka pocket where they are supposed to conduct mobile defense and at Izyum there really are no news at all.<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nMy guess was probably that they would make some advances here and there, especially the pocket in Horlivka where Ukraine would have to give up quite a bit of ground in their mobile defense back towards Kramatorsk\/Slovyansk and it has actually gone even worse than that.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>10:50<\/h2>\n<p>The Ukrainian defense leadership (with quite a lot of help from competent American and other commanders one must guess) probably has room to plan ahead. Some have the task of holding the front and retaking lost areas with units in the areas and that is what is playing out right now. The northern border, if you look at unit maps there are a couple of elite brigades north of Kyiv and along the northern front towards Kharkiv, they are not taking chances because the Russians can always get a feeling and there are probably about 20 Russian BTGs under recovery there?<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nOthers who have an unknown number of brigades at their disposal are working on plans for a Ukrainian counteroffensive. In a first phase they probably try to carry out a couple of local counteroffensives where they can cause damage. Kherson is a strong candidate followed by the Izyum encirclement. I guess there are maybe 5 heavy brigades that we today do not know where they are\/have what task.<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nTo me it looks like they have enough in place to be able to cut off supply and retreat routes to the Izyum offensive and to eliminate those trying to retreat. The 20 or so BTGs causing chaos down by Izyum can be written off.<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nAt Kherson they have (probably) held back the 45th Air Assault brigade, 5th Tank brigade, 1st Naval brigade and that is more than enough to defeat the Russians&#8217; 8 BTGs in the area west of the Dnipro. I am thinking here that denying them retreat over the bridges should be attractive and then wear them down over a few weeks without taking unreasonable losses?<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nThere are a couple more brigades and that is probably what is interesting, what happens next?<br \/>\nIf one guesses, the southern front should be their destination, I believe that progress can be made down there if the right moment is awaited.<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nWhen they have cleaned up with the Izyum offensive, the brigades standing west of the pocket\/arc north of Horlivka will be able (very simplified) to continue eastward and take all terrain north of Horlivka up to the Russian border, there has been mobile fighting in that area and no Maginot lines to overcome. Same here, the opportunity makes the man.<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nSomewhere around here is unknown terrain, has Putin then fallen and a general retreat been ordered, will Putin-paid forces start demanding peace in our time and the West waver or is it the same situation as today and Ukraine will have to retake Donbass and Crimea by force? I personally believe that Ukraine is prepared to retake Crimea and Donbass because it has gone too far now for Ukraine and the West to be willing to give Putin an out and prepare for round two in 10 years.<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nWhat will Russia do, dig in and defend taken terrain? There is an enormous swarm of SOF wreaking havoc behind the front lines now and the smaller the areas become the denser the swarm becomes. There are at least a hundred long-range self-propelled howitzers with smart ammunition about to be deployed and every shot is a hit. Drones are probably soon as common as anti-tank weapons and the maneuver brigades are approaching fully equipped, fully manned and have sky-high combat value. As the areas shrink, they can deploy their best and rotate units to maintain combat value.<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nWhat is difficult to speculate about is the timeline. Assuming Ukraine will act as they have so far, it will be fighting at Rommel level where they do not take unnecessary risks with soldiers&#8217; lives but calmly and methodically work forward to a win.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>11:05<\/h3>\n<p>Yes, that is the common picture that various experts and media now give that Russia is making reconnaissance attacks against Ukrainian positions and then will strike with a red storm that will make old communist nostalgics really shiver with delight.<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nI have made my assessment based on the number of BTGs all open sources say Russia has scraped together for the offensive \u2013 80 in total. If that is correct, it hardly gets better than this. For example, around Izyum they have deployed 20% of all available maneuver battalions and get no advance anywhere, so it is only in one place along the longest frontline in world history where they really bet everything on red (or maybe that was when Kyiv was in the picture..). The Russians simply do not have enough maneuver battalions here.<br \/>\nThe Russians have also proven to be terrible at defending taken terrain and the new black with smart artillery ammunition is probably about fivefold now on the Ukrainian side.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>11:11<\/h2>\n<p>After a quick look at established media today&#8217;s news is \u2013 &#8220;Putin has taken Mariupol and decided not to storm Azovstal, it is enough to capture them&#8221;.<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nI know it does no good to complain about this but one always gets equally annoyed at the angle when the truth is that Mariupol&#8217;s defenders have held out for over a month and are now sitting and drinking Coca-Cola and eating field rations in their impregnable fortress, Westerplatte is nothing compared to this so guess if this will go down in history books.<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nI rejoice that now Mariupol&#8217;s defenders will be able to hold out until Ukraine has won the war and it is remnants of all the different units that have participated that are in Mariupol, no unit has been wiped out so the Russians do not have a single flag to lay at Putin&#8217;s feet on May 9. The defenders have loyally saved each other when the situation became untenable and fought as one unit even though there are probably 5-6 different units in the area belonging to different branches of the armed forces.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>11:38<\/h2>\n<p>A new world order will come after this war and the EU-USA will be at the top for the next 100 years or so.<br \/>\nWithin the EU there will be a ranking largely determined by how one acted in this war.<br \/>\nThe UK is also well positioned.<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nI find it telling that roughly the same countries that defended the free world during WW2 are also doing so today.<br \/>\nThat the Germans have managed to burn themselves out completely is remarkable and nice that old Eastern Europe gets another chance to prove themselves capable. If Hungary is still in the EU in a year I will be very surprised.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>11:42<\/h2>\n<p>Something that I think contradicts the idea that this is a &#8220;reconnaissance before the real attack begins&#8221; is that Russian armor and mechanized losses are starting to rise sharply again. They have pushed with the BTGs they have. I never manage to keep track of losses per day but a few days ago we passed 2000 IFVs and today it&#8217;s +118 and that&#8217;s quite a few.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>12:12<\/h2>\n<p>The only offensive operations the Russians are conducting are between Izyum and down to Zaporozhye (south of that).<br \/>\nThey have given a walkover at Kharkov, the bunker dwarf has declared Mariupol taken and we know they have moved their BTGs from there and at Kherson it is a complete stop to the point that they have started mining themselves in.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nOne should be very clear that if the Russians had enough available units, they would have pushed towards Kharkov to protect the Izyum offensive, cleared out Azovstal for their first real win and pushed towards Mykolaiv, all were designated priority targets for the spring offensive after their &#8220;strategic retreat&#8221; from the Kiev front.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nThere is great value in attacking multiple areas so the defenders have to spread out and the least one could have expected here was probably a diversionary attack on Kharkov, I think?<br \/>\nNumber two is the value of starting all attacks simultaneously for maximum confusion among the defenders.<br \/>\nSo here on day three I believe the Russians have geographically limited themselves to this area and will push with everything they have until it&#8217;s over there.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nThere are those who have claimed that &#8220;Russia has not given up on Kiev yet&#8221; and sure, there might be some attack from the north since reportedly 20 BTGs are gathered up there recuperating. They can\u2019t achieve anything other than a desperate general at Izyum demanding an attack on Kharkov as help against the encirclement down there which is doomed to fail.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>12:24<\/h2>\n<p>11:48 one might think that even anxious Social Democrats can feel secure enough that Russia has lost so they dare to go to Ukraine and donate some offensive weapons now that all of Europe except Germany is competing to see who gives the most tanks and tracked howitzers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>17:10<\/h3>\n<p>All BTGs are up at the front now and they have probably left the Chechens and DPR who are holding a ring around the fort.<br \/>\nConsidering how many fire raids they carry out all the time, I believe the defenders will make life very miserable for the besiegers and it is quite an intense free war behind the entire southern front. In Melitopol, about 70 Russian soldiers have died over a few weeks.<br \/>\nThen I believe Azovstal has everything a Ukrainian soldier needs, they have counted on an encirclement and are probably having a really good time in there.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>20:54<\/h2>\n<p>Azovstal is quite a cool name for a fort, there aren\u2019t many in the world that resisted &#8220;something&#8221;-hordes for over a month and survived. Netflix has probably already started working on a script \ud83d\ude42<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nSo insanely funny that Kadyrov as recently as yesterday promised to take the fort by lunchtime today and then Putin announced they are moving on. Someone should have told Kadyrov that there were underground constructions as well.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>22:33<\/h2>\n<p>There is some movement in the pocket\/bow north of Horlivka where Ukraine is supposed to conduct mobile defensive fighting, I think a couple of smaller communities are contested now and Borova seems to have been completely abandoned by Ukraine. I have the impression that the Wikipedia map is conservative and I try to follow it.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nThey are pushing from the north which seems logical since that is where they have sent BTGs that were pulled away from Kiev, I guess if they haven\u2019t gone to the Izyum offensive.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nAll the larger towns there are fortified 360 degrees and can probably withstand a longer siege and Ukraine can retreat behind them. So it is only a matter of time before the Russians have a larger town in front of them that they cannot resist trying to throw themselves over and it will be Kharkov all over again, a concrete wall. If they go around, they expose their supply lines instead.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nI want to be clear that this is how it should look, they attack straight into an area that is not strategic and Ukraine can give up ground for burnt-out T72s all the way back to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk without a strategic goal being achieved for the Russians and Ukraine keeps a couple of big hedgehogs behind Russian lines. Also, it is insanely good terrain for defense there, lots of forest and rivers in long stretches so it will cost the Russians enormously.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nThe other focus area seems to be along the ceasefire line near Donetsk so maybe it is at the southern front that Ukraine can carry out a counterattack besides Kherson and the small scale at Kupiansk?<br \/>\nIt would be highly reasonable if Ukraine waits a couple of days to confirm where the Russians put their strength and that the lines hold and then strikes at a weak point, or a couple of weak points, Melitopol?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>22:49<\/h2>\n<p>Here you have a platoon of Russian warriors,\u2019<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CanadianUkrain1\/status\/1517165650782871553?s=20&amp;t=IdqkEiEcUedh4VHkuZ7Tnw\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/CanadianUkrain1\/status\/1517165650782871553?s=20&#038;t=IdqkEiEcUedh4VHkuZ7Tnw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>09:20 I find it telling that on day 3 (actually it started a few days earlier) of the much talked [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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