{"id":6132,"date":"2022-04-23T10:54:12","date_gmt":"2022-04-23T08:54:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-04-23-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-20T20:55:15","modified_gmt":"2026-09-20T18:55:15","slug":"2022-04-23-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-04-23-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-04-23"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>10:54<\/h2>\n<p>Picked up the below from a pro-Russian blog, which is roughly what we&#8217;ve guessed, Ukraine is holding the line and conducting counterattacks where the Russians are weak.<br \/>\n\u201dThere is an accumulation of military power of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Nikolaev and Zaporozhye directions in order to try to make counteroffensives on the positions of the Russian Federation.<\/p>\n<p>The problem is that the delivery of weapons is very difficult, so far it only happens by rail, mixing freight trains with passenger trains in order to insure against air strikes on the train.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>10:58<\/h2>\n<p>I think we know why the Russians started too early, now tanks, artillery, drones, aircraft, and everything else on Zelensky&#8217;s wish list are literally pouring in and the Russians probably had to attack before all the units were deployed. Smart artillery shells exist and drones where every shot is a hit probably outnumber Russian tanks and IFVs tenfold\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>11:34<\/h2>\n<p>At Kharkov, it\u2019s nothing but Ukraine retaking smaller communities at a leisurely pace. We hear nothing about the offensive against Kupiansk but the mech and armor brigade are probably pressing on and the infantry brigade is handling flank protection.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nKherson is calm and according to the above post, at least the pro-Russians believe that Ukraine is beginning to build up for a counteroffensive at Kherson and down towards presumably Melitopol (Zaporyznye).<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nIt seems that most BTGs from Kiev\/northern front have been moved to Izyum and the northern part of the pocket\/bow north of Horlivka and they are pressing quite hard there. In fact, they have probably pulled more than we thought since they have left a walkover at Kharkov, so there are probably a dozen more BTGs for that attack than estimated.<br \/>\nSevierodonetsk and Lysychansk are probably soon encircled and one can probably reach Slovyansk\/Kramatorsk before fuel and meat soup run out. Someone wrote yesterday that the 128th Mountain brigade had retreated far but had the area wrong, they are standing right in this pocket. I emphasize again today that in this area you MUST conduct mobile warfare, you trade potato fields for tank wrecks. Ukraine has some of its best brigades in this bow and the cities are packed with National Guard, national battalions and territorial defense who hold the hedgehogs that become encircled. This is the northern front all over again where there will be strings of Russian advances and cities that are encircled and then it ebbs out and Ukraine can go on the counteroffensive and the whole circus starts.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nEverything seems more or less holding at the Donetsk front and at the southern front they are pressing at the \u201dprovincial border Donbass Oblast\u201d and at Vuhledar-Marinka. All BTGs from Mariupol have probably been moved up there and an attempt will be made there which can get a bit sweaty as it comes in an area where Ukraine is weak.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nI stand by that apart from Kherson and Kupiansk, Melitopol is probably a good candidate for a counterattack. Considering how many depots have been blown up and how little time the Russians have had here, this offensive will probably fizzle out quite quickly. I think a BTG in combat is pretty exhausted after 4 days and now we are actually on the morning of the fifth day since they started early and around Izyum they have probably been fighting for almost two weeks? Consider that at Izyum there are 20% of all available BTGs the Russians have and they have not been idle trying to conduct some kind of echelon warfare which instead has become chaos and traffic jams.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nThey don\u2019t seem to be making progress at Izyum but if it breaks there, the 17th Tank and 25th Airborne can probably conduct a counterattack on the western flank to disrupt that offensive, a two-front war will really mess up Russian command.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nIf anyone remembers the start of the war, sure it calmed down after a little over a week and that was still after 6 months of hoarding fuel, ammunition and meat soup. Now it\u2019s units that have been in combat, not recovered and with the fuel they managed to hide from Ukrainian SOF \ud83d\ude42<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nAlso want to point out that we don\u2019t have a single airborne landing in this offensive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>11:51<\/h3>\n<p>Erik14 wrote yesterday that there are 25 BTGs at Izyum, should be added. Looking at maps, they are trying to push east which is excellent defensive terrain and then they have to try to take Barvinkove before they can roll south. It is the 3rd Tank brigade and 81st Airmobile defending in that direction. I BELIEVE the 3rd Tank has been moved down from west of this offensive to support the 81st Airmobile. Road M03 is exposed to direct fire from large forest areas so it\u2019s not something you can just roll forward on.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nThe 57th Motorized can also withdraw to these forest areas north of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk and go on defense and the same for the 128th Airborne.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nTo the east these forest areas turn into Severodonetsk so there you probably have the line where this offensive from the north pushing south will stop, by then they will have fought for a week and it is easily defensible forest with open terrain ahead and some of Ukraine\u2019s best brigades defending.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-2\">\n<h4>12:02<\/h4>\n<p>In the long run this means that Putin will not succeed in taking the whole Donetsk Oblast and cannot claim a victory on May 9, or thereafter.<br \/>\nHe must then change the narrative to something new but before they have managed to cook up a new story on this very small nail, a Ukrainian counteroffensive will come that takes some other prioritized area, Kherson or Melitopol for example, and then they have to change their statements again and when they have managed to cook up that they actually don\u2019t need Odessa anymore because they have Mariupol, then Mariupol goes, etc\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>14:42<\/h3>\n<p>Yes exactly as you write and it should be enough with a dozen of the heavy tracked howitzers with +30km range for smart ammunition under delivery positioned a bit east of Schesvenskove, like Troitske, to be able to cut the road.<br \/>\nThen, the closer they get, the easier it becomes to infiltrate SOF who conduct ambushes not to mention the drones, switchblade, ghost and all the names the Russians are slowly starting to learn.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nThe Russians have probably dug in around Kupiansk but about 2km from the city.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>15:05<\/h2>\n<p>What is currently happening is that Russia has thrown in maybe 50 BTGs out of 85 available BTGs between Izyum and across the bow down to Horlivka, the absolute majority seem to be attacking from north to south or at least north of Severodonetsk. Additionally some Chechens and LPR rebels.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nIt is excellent defensive terrain between Izyum \u2013 Severedonetsk and these 50 BTGs will be useless within a week max., and they are positioned NORTH OF DONETSK. Then there are 8 BTGs who don\u2019t know what to do at Kherson.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nDonetsk and the southern front thus have 85 \u2013 (8+50) = 27 BTGs for the entire stretch between Horlivka-Donetsk-Volnovakha-Vasylivka and in addition DPR rebels who have been used heavily for a month and Chechens who are fully occupied with their Instagram accounts and TikTok and don\u2019t have time to fight.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nNot exact math but you understand that the Bunker dwarf by taking a few potato fields in a remote province without strategic value in NE Ukraine has exposed the entire southern front including Crimea and also Donbass to attacks from the south.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nUkraine\u2019s strategy should reasonably be to let the Russians bleed for a few more days and before they dig in strike towards Melitopol and everywhere else between Dnepr \u2013 Horlivka that they can. 27 BTGs that are battle-weary are one slap away from being smashed when Ukraine\u2019s heavy brigades that they have held back in reserve roll out with newly serviced Polish and Slovak T72s equipped with night sights. According to the pro-Russians themselves, they believe in attacks at Zaporoznye and Kherson.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nNow we just wait to wake up to breaking news about a Ukrainian counterattack down there and then we know the circus is on again. The Russians have made such a big mistake concentrating north of the Izyum-Severodonetsk line that it will cost them the war much faster than most think possible and Crimea and Donbass will go up in smoke along the way.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nOne would really like to see the Bunker dwarf\u2019s reaction when the first sweaty staff officers come in with reports that Melitopol has fallen and the bridges over the Dnepr at Kherson and Khakovka have been blown up, he will double over holding his stomach and just whimper quietly as he limps away to his room in the bunker.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>15:13<\/h3>\n<p>You are onto something here because I have been no-to-NATO, yes-to-a-very-strong defense with Finland my whole life but now I want NATO directly mostly to make sure that the Putin apologists NEVER can demilitarize Sweden again or expose another country to get the same treatment as Ukraine. It is pure damn luck that we have the USA otherwise Ukraine would have been a Russian puppet state a month ago.<br \/>\nNATO is a guarantee that we actually contribute to saving the free world and then we always hide behind neutrality to avoid helping out, better that we stand in solidarity against the next threat which will probably be China.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>20:33<\/h3>\n<p>No \ud83d\ude42<br \/>\nI have thought a lot about this and usually everything goes slowly and those with the right title and job get to spread out and then they can calmly adjust themselves as they go and basically just claim &#8220;I have always said that&#8221; and the normal state continues. People like us who are the only ones who have gone against the current are labeled conspiracy theorists and forgotten. Most notably the blogger got some label from Aftonbladet which in hindsight was very wrong and he was very right.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nThis time it has gone lightning fast and all established journalists and military experts have been incredibly wrong since day 1, &#8220;Kiev falls in a few days&#8221; and then it just continued. It goes so fast and everything was so unexpected that their whole game theory went completely to hell and they have not managed to keep up since then \ud83d\ude42<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nHere on the blog we look at the right sources and manage to put the puzzle together much better than many who have a full-time salary to do it and it is fun, there are many small puzzle pieces that add up to the whole and many who contribute. So far the blog and the thread have been very right.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>20:39<\/h2>\n<p>A comment about the general slaughter at Kherson is that I read somewhere that it was a staff meeting and 40-50 dead.<br \/>\nI\u2019m guessing here that it was all the battalion commanders + deputies for all BTGs west of the Dnieper at Kherson who got taken out.<br \/>\nThey probably had bad radio and were supposed to have a briefing before some offensive they are planning.<br \/>\nIn the best case, there could be 8 BTGs down there without combat leadership.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>20:43<\/h2>\n<p>Damn, I really don\u2019t want nuclear weapons but I wouldn\u2019t be surprised in the least if the bunker dwarf pulls a tactical nuclear charge. However, he would have to drop about thirty to be able to turn the war around and anything over one that &#8220;exploded by accident&#8221; condemns Russia to eternal pariah status.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>21:22<\/h2>\n<p>I know this is the bunker dwarf and Russia but now it\u2019s full speed on \u2013 &#8220;Ukraine and the West are preparing a false flag to accuse us of X&#8221;<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nDon\u2019t they themselves understand the absurdity of this when they have already leveled 50% of Ukraine\u2019s infrastructure to the ground?<br \/>\nMariupol is 90% destroyed.<br \/>\nBut yes, the answer is probably meant for their own citizens and Putin hardliners, not the rest of us.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>22:01<\/h3>\n<p>Now the brigades are almost competing for the most well-edited video of the Russians getting hit.<br \/>\nIf you watch the video you have to give the Russians that they drive beside the road but at the first hit it turns into chaos and towards the end they all stand in a pile in the middle of the field and some MTLB at the back drives a bit back and forth.<br \/>\nThey are completely hopeless against artillery with smart ammunition and drones and of course everyone has understood this because the number of band howitzers on the way to Ukraine must exceed 200 by now.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-2\">\n<h4>22:03<\/h4>\n<p>When I see this video towards the end I think of any movie scene from a mental hospital and their common room where someone is banging their head against the wall and a couple of others are walking in circles humming.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-3\">\n<h5>22:03<\/h5>\n<p>Like feature films such as One Flew Over the Cuckoo\u2019s Nest.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>10:54 Picked up the below from a pro-Russian blog, which is roughly what we&#8217;ve guessed, Ukraine is holding the line 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